3430 Conifer Cir · Huber Heights, OH 45424

$229,075

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,564 sqft · Townhouse · 23 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $242k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Join us for our Open House this Saturday & Sunday from 12-2pm! The lowest-priced new homes with scenic surroundings, 3 bedrooms and attached garages in Huber Heights. Lease up soon? Brand-new, light-filled, and stylish-this modern townhome is designed for today's lifestyle! The main level features a spacious open-concept layout with stainless-steel appliances, LVP flooring and a bright dining area perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, you'll find three bedrooms including a private owner's suite with its own full bath. The entry level includes a versatile flex space-ideal for a home office, workout room, or kids' play area-and it opens directly onto an included pati

Key facts

• Flex space
• Bright dining area
• Lvp flooring

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• LVP FLOORING
• BRIGHT DINING AREA
• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE
• FLEX SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 3430 Conifer Cir, Dayton, OH 45424; Status: Active; Inventory type: Spec; Plan name: Juniper with Finished Basement
• Financial info: List price $228,075

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Utilities: Central air (cooling)
• Home design: Single-family property; Finished basement
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1564

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Spec home — Juniper plan with finished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-821/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.5% in Huber Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#436 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Huber Heights City (suburban): math 29% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #544 of 656 in OH (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 194 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $191,733 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.28%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $242,420
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3439 Conifer Cir	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,564 (0%)	10mo	$242,000	$155	88
6528 Marino	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,526 (-2%)	14mo	$237,000	$155	51
6519 Marino	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,442 (-8%)	13mo	$229,000	$159	37
6520 Greeley Ave	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,422 (-9%)	13mo	$201,550	$142	34
6520 Marino	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,334 (-15%)	8mo	$200,000	$150	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-46,647
• Equity at exit: $34,156

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-66,298
• Equity at exit: $19,806

Cash invested: $64,141 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45424

• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 194
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,917 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$286 /mo · $3,436/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,004

Max offer price $219,178

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $90	-5% $11	+0% $-68	+5% $-148	+10% $-227
Rent	-10% $-220	-5% $-144	+0% $-68	+5% $7	+10% $83
Rate	-1.0pp $47	-0.5pp $-10	base $-68	+0.5pp $-128	+1.0pp $-188

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,269
• Closing costs: $6,872
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4034 Hemlock Ct Dayton, OH	3.0	2.5	1312	$2,200	$1.68	3d	1	0.02mi
4028 Hemlock Ct Dayton, OH	3.0	2.5	1312	$2,200	$1.68	3d	1	0.02mi
5225 Buckner Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,300	$1.20	3d	1	0.50mi
5257 Powell Rd Dayton, OH	4.0	2.0	1155	$1,850	$1.60	44d	1	0.50mi
5595 Shady Oak St Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,700	$1.57	3d	1	0.53mi
5512 Shady Oak St Dayton, OH	4.0	2.0	1404	$1,645	$1.17	44d	1	0.56mi
5131 Kuder Pl Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,600	$1.48	3d	1	0.66mi
5020 Packard Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	19d	1	0.73mi
5269 Harshmanville Rd Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,525	$1.41	44d	1	0.84mi
4541 Kapp Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,800	$1.67	3d	1	0.88mi
5896 Harshmanville Rd Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1068	$1,345	$1.26	12d	1	1.07mi
5784 Traymore Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,525	$1.41	44d	1	1.08mi
4437 E Kitridge Rd Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	2040	$1,800	$0.88	44d	1	1.25mi
4506 Powell Rd Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,500	$1.39	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,075 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,075 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,075 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,075 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   pricedays on market $229,075 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $219,075 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $219,075 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   pricedays on market $219,075 Active 13 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,832
• − Property taxes: −$3,436
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,841
• − Management: −$1,841
• − Depreciation: −$6,664
• Taxable loss: −$4,751
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,140
• After-tax cash flow: $319/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huber Heights City
• NCES district ID: 3904875
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $55,943
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #5499
• State rank: #544 of 656 in OH

Livability — Huber Heights

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #436
• US rank: #7187

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Huber Heights, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 50,725
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 50,725
• Household income: $80,605
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 911.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 15% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -228.44%
• Current HPI: 161.8116
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.23%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B