6428 Sherwood Dr · Houston, TX 77021

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,166 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1952 5,998 sqft lot Est $173k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

GREAT VALUE FOR THE LAND AND THE AREA. Calling all investors!!! Motivated seller!

Key facts

• 5,998 sq ft lot
• Built 1952
• Listed 27 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1952; Single-story (entry level: first floor)
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor (approx. 13 x 13, 13 x 12, and 14 x 14)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Window unit cooling
• Interior features: 3 total rooms; Seller disclosure provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $423 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cullen Middle (math 6% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,641 of 1,662 statewide, top 99%, 324 students, 100% FRL); Yates H S (math 12% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,451 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 851 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 467 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.11%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $172,568
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6103 Sherwood Dr	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-9%)	1mo	$115,000	$109	68
6719 Goforth St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,075 (-8%)	3mo	$130,000	$121	66
6320 Paris St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,089 (-7%)	0mo	$230,000	$211	58
6427 Paris St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,089 (-7%)	0mo	$205,000	$188	57
3731 Alberta St	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,002 (-14%)	7mo	$110,000	$110	57
3523 Tampa St	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,149 (-2%)	6mo	$169,990	$148	54
3631 Wyoming St	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,090 (-6%)	5mo	$265,000	$243	52
4521 Kingsbury St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-6%)	7mo	$214,900	$195	50
7121 England St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,296 (+11%)	1mo	$139,900	$108	49
4523 Keystone St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,073 (-8%)	4mo	$195,000	$182	49
7129 Foster St	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,107 (-5%)	5mo	$120,000	$108	48
4526 Kingsbury St St	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,049 (-10%)	9mo	$119,000	$113	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $6,200
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $34,844
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77021

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 467
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,625 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,174/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $423

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,089

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $491	-5% $457	+0% $423	+5% $389	+10% $355
Rent	-10% $295	-5% $359	+0% $423	+5% $487	+10% $551
Rate	-1.0pp $484	-0.5pp $454	base $423	+0.5pp $392	+1.0pp $360

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7032 Conley St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$2,850	$2.34	44d	1	0.58mi
5813 England St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1473	$2,195	$1.49	4d	1	0.58mi
3603 Alice St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,000	$1.18	5d	1	0.60mi
3603 Alice St Unit 15 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$999	$1.18	8d	1	0.62mi
3560 Dixie Dr Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,410	$1.07	5d	1	0.62mi
3560 Dixie Dr Apt 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,410	$1.07	8d	1	0.62mi
3560 Dixie Dr Unit 3617 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,435	$1.09	44d	1	0.62mi
3560 Dixie Dr Unit 2165 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,402	$1.06	3d	1	0.62mi
3560 Dixie Dr Unit 3597 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,434	$1.08	11d	1	0.62mi
3644 Griggs Rd Unit 1047940P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1399	$2,161	$1.54	2d	1	0.68mi
4007 Corder St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	814	$885	$1.09	24d	1	0.71mi
3426 Tampa St Unit 4272026 Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1046	$1,500	$1.43	44d	1	0.79mi
6532 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	18d	1	0.82mi
6528 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	44d	1	0.83mi
5924 Schroeder Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	44d	1	1.04mi
5924 Schroeder Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	22d	1	1.04mi
5918 Schroeder Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,000	$1.18	44d	1	1.05mi
3360 Alice St Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,129	$0.98	3d	1	1.06mi
3360 Alice St Unit 3387 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	968	$1,315	$1.36	3d	1	1.06mi
3360 Alice St Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,172	$1.02	12d	1	1.06mi
3360 Alice St Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	945	$966	$1.02	16d	1	1.06mi
3360 Alice St Unit 2292 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	945	$998	$1.06	44d	1	1.06mi
3360 Alice St Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	968	$1,323	$1.37	8d	1	1.06mi
3360 Alice St Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	945	$991	$1.05	14d	1	1.06mi
3360 Alice St Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,172	$1.02	11d	1	1.07mi
3360 Alice St Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	968	$1,347	$1.39	3d	1	1.07mi
3716 Southmore Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,000	$1.18	44d	1	1.09mi
3620 Southmore Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	780	$1,100	$1.41	14d	1	1.14mi
5123 Dewberry St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1391	$2,400	$1.73	44d	1	1.21mi
4722 Old Spanish Trl Unit B301 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1027	$1,695	$1.65	44d	1	1.21mi
1600 Jester St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	707	$1,395	$1.97	2d	4	1.22mi
4942 Bataan Rd Unit 77033 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1350	$1,800	$1.33	44d	1	1.24mi
7110 Ardmore St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	831	$2,354	$2.83	3d	19	1.28mi
7812 Tierwester St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	16d	2	1.30mi
5116 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1131	$1,316	$1.16	44d	1	1.30mi
5154 Griggs Rd Unit CAVE Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,420	$1.07	3d	1	1.35mi
4530 Mayflower St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,800	$1.38	44d	1	1.35mi
7373 Ardmore St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1095	$1,887	$1.72	5d	24	1.36mi
5506 Sampson St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1287	$920	$0.71	24d	1	1.38mi
5506 Sampson St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	886	$970	$1.09	44d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 82-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $120,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-05-22
    listed $115,000 Active
15. 2003-10-02
    soldstatus
16. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,174 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$22/yr (+$2/mo · 1.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,497
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$2,174
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,560
• − Management: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $3,391
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$814
• After-tax cash flow: $4,263/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,153
• Household income: $45,574
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2532.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% White 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.22%
• Current HPI: 230.2869
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2003-10-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,174 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.