833 Adler Way · San Marcos, TX 78666

$240,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 6,185 sqft lot $132/sqft · 21% below area Est $308k · 22% under $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-story home quietly outpaces most surrounding floor plans in both size and thoughtfulness. At 1,831 square feet, it lives large without feeling excessive, open where it counts, private where it matters. The kitchen is the center of gravity. Granite countertops, a generous island, and a walk-in pantry flow seamlessly into the living and dining areas, perfect for weeknight dinners or weekends with friends. The primary suite sits tucked at the back of the home, away from the noise, with a roomy walk-in closet and a spacious walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. This floor plan includes something rare in single-story homes in this neighborhood a half bath that keeps your primary suite private and all to yourself. Outside, a covered patio, fully fenced backyard, and irrigation system with established landscaping mean you can enjoy the space from day one no projects required. Two-car garage. Single-level living. Five minutes from the Square, Texas State, and everything San Marcos has going for it. This is the one that checks the boxes you didn't know you had.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• COVERED PATIO
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-358 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (26.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.1% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, employment F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1122 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $59k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,712 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.40%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,832
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: -22.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
136 Parrigin Cv	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,827 (+1%)	1mo	$290,990	$159	87
128 Dylan Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,913 (+5%)	1mo	$260,000	$136	72
104 Blair Ct	0.50mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,839 (+1%)	6mo	$259,999	$141	65
132 Parrigin Cv	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,662 (-8%)	6mo	$261,651	$157	64
180 Lake Gln	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,647 (-9%)	5mo	$270,000	$164	61
216 Calgary Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,562 (-14%)	1mo	$249,900	$160	55
204 Calgary Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,562 (-14%)	2mo	$265,000	$170	53
140 Skipping Stone Lane Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,562 (-14%)	2mo	$267,000	$171	53
206 Linden Ln	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,067 (+14%)	4mo	$299,000	$145	49
410 Brazoria Trl	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,687 (-7%)	5mo	$279,990	$166	48
122 Wild Plum	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,587 (-13%)	3mo	$235,000	$148	37
414 Brazoria Trl	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,587 (-13%)	3mo	$265,000	$167	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-63,506
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-91,904
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78666

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1122
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,939 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$512 /mo · $6,149/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,392

Max offer price $176,712

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-222	-5% $-290	+0% $-358	+5% $-426	+10% $-494
Rent	-10% $-511	-5% $-435	+0% $-358	+5% $-282	+10% $-205
Rate	-1.0pp $-237	-0.5pp $-297	base $-358	+0.5pp $-420	+1.0pp $-484

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 Moonrise Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.5	1890	$1,889	$1.00	20d	1	0.14mi
133 Lily Pond Trl San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1739	$1,795	$1.03	2d	1	0.20mi
127 Snapdragon Ln San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.5	2230	$2,300	$1.03	2d	1	0.25mi
153 Roanwood Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1535	$1,825	$1.19	3d	1	0.28mi
133 Whipporwill Ln San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.5	1831	$2,100	$1.15	2d	1	0.28mi
128 Shimmering Cv San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1544	$1,890	$1.22	44d	1	0.29mi
140 Skipping Stone Ln San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1562	$1,945	$1.25	15d	1	0.32mi
101 Calgary Ln San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1509	$1,750	$1.16	22d	1	0.40mi
224 Lake Gln San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1529	$1,825	$1.19	19d	1	0.44mi
131 Lake Gln San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	1839	$1,849	$1.01	44d	1	0.46mi
186 Tallow Trl San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,888	$1.29	17d	1	0.46mi
190 Tallow Trl San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1647	$1,900	$1.15	18d	1	0.46mi
205 Tallow Trl San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.5	2146	$1,945	$0.91	3d	1	0.49mi
124 Brody Ln San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1739	$1,960	$1.13	5d	1	0.50mi
116 Miles Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$1,799	$1.06	4d	1	0.52mi
116 Miles Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$1,799	$1.06	2d	1	0.52mi
117 Linden Ln San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	24d	1	0.55mi
213 Hoya Ln San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,700	$1.21	24d	1	0.55mi
326 Wild Plum San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	1723	$1,850	$1.07	44d	1	0.75mi
136 Discovery Ln San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,625	$1.02	24d	1	0.83mi
261 Elk Ave San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1682	$1,925	$1.14	8d	1	0.83mi
125 Cutleaf Cv San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$2,100	$1.37	5d	1	0.87mi
133 Cutleaf Cv San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$2,100	$1.37	2d	1	0.88mi
133 Cutleaf Cv San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$2,100	$1.37	5d	1	0.88mi
1212 Wild Leaf Way San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,875	$1.35	24d	1	0.88mi
1009 Wild Leaf Way #29 San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	1614	$1,850	$1.15	5d	1	0.91mi
409 Teron Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,775	$1.29	18d	1	1.31mi
417 Capistrano Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,850	$1.37	18d	1	1.31mi
1041 Vervain Rd San Marcos, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	943	$1,450	$1.54	2d	13	1.33mi
210 Teron Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,709	$1.15	3d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $240,000 Pending 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $240,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $240,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $240,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $240,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $240,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $240,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-05-05
    price $279,000 1141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1141 chars)

    This single-story home quietly outpaces most surrounding floor plans in both size and thoughtfulness. At 1,831 square feet, it lives large without feeling excessive, open where it counts, private where it matters. The kitchen is the center of gravity. Granite countertops, a generous island, and a walk-in pantry flow seamlessly into the living and dining areas, perfect for weeknight dinners or weekends with friends. The primary suite sits tucked at the back of the home, away from the noise, with a roomy walk-in closet and a spacious walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. This floor plan includes something rare in single-story homes in this neighborhood a half bath that keeps your primary suite private and all to yourself. Outside, a covered patio, fully fenced backyard, and irrigation system with established landscaping mean you can enjoy the space from day one no projects required. Two-car garage. Single-level living. Five minutes from the Square, Texas State, and everything San Marcos has going for it. This is the one that checks the boxes you didn't know you had.

11. 2026-04-13
    price $289,000 1141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1141 chars)

    This single-story home quietly outpaces most surrounding floor plans in both size and thoughtfulness. At 1,831 square feet, it lives large without feeling excessive, open where it counts, private where it matters. The kitchen is the center of gravity. Granite countertops, a generous island, and a walk-in pantry flow seamlessly into the living and dining areas, perfect for weeknight dinners or weekends with friends. The primary suite sits tucked at the back of the home, away from the noise, with a roomy walk-in closet and a spacious walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. This floor plan includes something rare in single-story homes in this neighborhood a half bath that keeps your primary suite private and all to yourself. Outside, a covered patio, fully fenced backyard, and irrigation system with established landscaping mean you can enjoy the space from day one no projects required. Two-car garage. Single-level living. Five minutes from the Square, Texas State, and everything San Marcos has going for it. This is the one that checks the boxes you didn't know you had.

12. 2026-03-18
    listed $299,000 Active 1141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1141 chars)

    This single-story home quietly outpaces most surrounding floor plans in both size and thoughtfulness. At 1,831 square feet, it lives large without feeling excessive, open where it counts, private where it matters. The kitchen is the center of gravity. Granite countertops, a generous island, and a walk-in pantry flow seamlessly into the living and dining areas, perfect for weeknight dinners or weekends with friends. The primary suite sits tucked at the back of the home, away from the noise, with a roomy walk-in closet and a spacious walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. This floor plan includes something rare in single-story homes in this neighborhood a half bath that keeps your primary suite private and all to yourself. Outside, a covered patio, fully fenced backyard, and irrigation system with established landscaping mean you can enjoy the space from day one no projects required. Two-car garage. Single-level living. Five minutes from the Square, Texas State, and everything San Marcos has going for it. This is the one that checks the boxes you didn't know you had.

13. 2022-08-30
    status Pending
14. 2022-08-26
    soldstatus Closed
15. 2021-08-10
    status Pending
16. 2021-08-10
    status Pending
17. 2021-08-10
    historical
18. 2021-08-08
    price $325,000
19. 2021-08-06
    listed $306,990 Active
20. 2021-08-03
    listed $306,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,149 · $512/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,149 · $512/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,267
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$6,149
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,861
• − Management: −$1,861
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$8,458
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,030
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It offers a spacious floor plan and is ready for minor cosmetic updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality
• Both New kitchen backsplash — Enhances kitchen aesthetics and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New kitchen backsplash — Enhances kitchen aesthetics and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838970
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,538
• Composite: 20.11/100
• National rank: #8644
• State rank: #731 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Marcos, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 88,583
• Household income: $54,737
• Rent vs Own: 61.9% rent · 38.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6504.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 20% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.27%
• Current HPI: 187.6679
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $279,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $289,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $299,000 Unlock MLS
• 2022-08-30 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2022-08-26 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2021-08-10 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2021-08-10 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2021-08-10 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2021-08-08 Price Changed $325,000 Unlock MLS
• 2021-08-06 Listed $306,990 Unlock MLS
• 2021-08-03 Listed $306,990 CTXMLS

Property tax history

+58.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,149 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.