31748 Shelton Dr · Killian, LA 70462

$170,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,660 sqft · SingleFamily · 95 Days on market

Built 1980 $64/sqft · 60% below area ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property offers a great opportunity for buyers with vision looking to renovate, restore, or customize a waterfront camp to their own style. Located in the Shelly Neal Subdivision, this waterfront property offers 2,660 living square feet on three lots with over 100 feet of waterfront bulkhead. The home features 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms with spacious living areas and multiple porches and decks overlooking the water. A detached recreation room provides additional flexible space that could be used for entertaining, storage, or a workshop. The property also includes a boat slip for convenient water access and is just a short boat ride to the Tickfaw River, offering easy access to boating, fishing, and other recreational activities. With its large lot size and desirable waterfront location, this property presents a great opportunity for renovation, restoration, or new construction to create a custom waterfront retreat. Property to be sold as-is. Measurements deemed reliable but not guaranteed by broker, agent, or seller.

Key facts

• Waterfront bulkhead
• Waterfront property
• Boat slip

Tags

• WATERFRONT PROPERTY
• WATERFRONT BULKHEAD
• DETACHED RECREATION ROOM
• BOAT SLIP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-452/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (3.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.2% in Killian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#333 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 214 active listings in the ZIP; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,700 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.80%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $427,112
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -60.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21438 Yellowfin Dr	0.49mi	4/3.5	2,630 (-1%)	1mo	$411,058	$156	73
21537 Yellowfin Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,573 (-3%)	9mo	$413,114	$161	70
21472 Blue Marlin Dr	0.41mi	4/3.5	2,917 (+10%)	3mo	$660,000	$226	60
21519 Yellowfin Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,810 (+6%)	17mo	$466,732	$166	60
21410 Yellowfin Dr	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,573 (-3%)	12mo	$395,153	$154	60
21416 Yellowfin Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,340 (-12%)	8mo	$364,860	$156	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $90,368
• Equity at exit: $153,149

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.64×
• Total profit: $268,372
• Equity at exit: $330,273

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70462

• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,762 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $489/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,810

Max offer price $163,340

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    status Active 1037-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1037 chars)

    This property offers a great opportunity for buyers with vision looking to renovate, restore, or customize a waterfront camp to their own style. Located in the Shelly Neal Subdivision, this waterfront property offers 2,660 living square feet on three lots with over 100 feet of waterfront bulkhead. The home features 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms with spacious living areas and multiple porches and decks overlooking the water. A detached recreation room provides additional flexible space that could be used for entertaining, storage, or a workshop. The property also includes a boat slip for convenient water access and is just a short boat ride to the Tickfaw River, offering easy access to boating, fishing, and other recreational activities. With its large lot size and desirable waterfront location, this property presents a great opportunity for renovation, restoration, or new construction to create a custom waterfront retreat. Property to be sold as-is. Measurements deemed reliable but not guaranteed by broker, agent, or seller.

17. 2026-05-01
    status Active 1037-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1037 chars)

    This property offers a great opportunity for buyers with vision looking to renovate, restore, or customize a waterfront camp to their own style. Located in the Shelly Neal Subdivision, this waterfront property offers 2,660 living square feet on three lots with over 100 feet of waterfront bulkhead. The home features 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms with spacious living areas and multiple porches and decks overlooking the water. A detached recreation room provides additional flexible space that could be used for entertaining, storage, or a workshop. The property also includes a boat slip for convenient water access and is just a short boat ride to the Tickfaw River, offering easy access to boating, fishing, and other recreational activities. With its large lot size and desirable waterfront location, this property presents a great opportunity for renovation, restoration, or new construction to create a custom waterfront retreat. Property to be sold as-is. Measurements deemed reliable but not guaranteed by broker, agent, or seller.

18. 2026-04-29
    status Pending 1037-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1037 chars)

    This property offers a great opportunity for buyers with vision looking to renovate, restore, or customize a waterfront camp to their own style. Located in the Shelly Neal Subdivision, this waterfront property offers 2,660 living square feet on three lots with over 100 feet of waterfront bulkhead. The home features 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms with spacious living areas and multiple porches and decks overlooking the water. A detached recreation room provides additional flexible space that could be used for entertaining, storage, or a workshop. The property also includes a boat slip for convenient water access and is just a short boat ride to the Tickfaw River, offering easy access to boating, fishing, and other recreational activities. With its large lot size and desirable waterfront location, this property presents a great opportunity for renovation, restoration, or new construction to create a custom waterfront retreat. Property to be sold as-is. Measurements deemed reliable but not guaranteed by broker, agent, or seller.

19. 2026-04-29
    historical Active Under Contract 1037-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1037 chars)

    This property offers a great opportunity for buyers with vision looking to renovate, restore, or customize a waterfront camp to their own style. Located in the Shelly Neal Subdivision, this waterfront property offers 2,660 living square feet on three lots with over 100 feet of waterfront bulkhead. The home features 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms with spacious living areas and multiple porches and decks overlooking the water. A detached recreation room provides additional flexible space that could be used for entertaining, storage, or a workshop. The property also includes a boat slip for convenient water access and is just a short boat ride to the Tickfaw River, offering easy access to boating, fishing, and other recreational activities. With its large lot size and desirable waterfront location, this property presents a great opportunity for renovation, restoration, or new construction to create a custom waterfront retreat. Property to be sold as-is. Measurements deemed reliable but not guaranteed by broker, agent, or seller.

20. 2026-04-17
    price $170,000 1037-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1037 chars)

    This property offers a great opportunity for buyers with vision looking to renovate, restore, or customize a waterfront camp to their own style. Located in the Shelly Neal Subdivision, this waterfront property offers 2,660 living square feet on three lots with over 100 feet of waterfront bulkhead. The home features 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms with spacious living areas and multiple porches and decks overlooking the water. A detached recreation room provides additional flexible space that could be used for entertaining, storage, or a workshop. The property also includes a boat slip for convenient water access and is just a short boat ride to the Tickfaw River, offering easy access to boating, fishing, and other recreational activities. With its large lot size and desirable waterfront location, this property presents a great opportunity for renovation, restoration, or new construction to create a custom waterfront retreat. Property to be sold as-is. Measurements deemed reliable but not guaranteed by broker, agent, or seller.

21. 2026-04-17
    price $170,000 1037-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1037 chars)

    This property offers a great opportunity for buyers with vision looking to renovate, restore, or customize a waterfront camp to their own style. Located in the Shelly Neal Subdivision, this waterfront property offers 2,660 living square feet on three lots with over 100 feet of waterfront bulkhead. The home features 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms with spacious living areas and multiple porches and decks overlooking the water. A detached recreation room provides additional flexible space that could be used for entertaining, storage, or a workshop. The property also includes a boat slip for convenient water access and is just a short boat ride to the Tickfaw River, offering easy access to boating, fishing, and other recreational activities. With its large lot size and desirable waterfront location, this property presents a great opportunity for renovation, restoration, or new construction to create a custom waterfront retreat. Property to be sold as-is. Measurements deemed reliable but not guaranteed by broker, agent, or seller.

22. 2026-03-15
    listed $175,000 Active 1037-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1037 chars)

    This property offers a great opportunity for buyers with vision looking to renovate, restore, or customize a waterfront camp to their own style. Located in the Shelly Neal Subdivision, this waterfront property offers 2,660 living square feet on three lots with over 100 feet of waterfront bulkhead. The home features 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms with spacious living areas and multiple porches and decks overlooking the water. A detached recreation room provides additional flexible space that could be used for entertaining, storage, or a workshop. The property also includes a boat slip for convenient water access and is just a short boat ride to the Tickfaw River, offering easy access to boating, fishing, and other recreational activities. With its large lot size and desirable waterfront location, this property presents a great opportunity for renovation, restoration, or new construction to create a custom waterfront retreat. Property to be sold as-is. Measurements deemed reliable but not guaranteed by broker, agent, or seller.

23. 2026-03-15
    listed $175,000 Active 1037-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1037 chars)

    This property offers a great opportunity for buyers with vision looking to renovate, restore, or customize a waterfront camp to their own style. Located in the Shelly Neal Subdivision, this waterfront property offers 2,660 living square feet on three lots with over 100 feet of waterfront bulkhead. The home features 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms with spacious living areas and multiple porches and decks overlooking the water. A detached recreation room provides additional flexible space that could be used for entertaining, storage, or a workshop. The property also includes a boat slip for convenient water access and is just a short boat ride to the Tickfaw River, offering easy access to boating, fishing, and other recreational activities. With its large lot size and desirable waterfront location, this property presents a great opportunity for renovation, restoration, or new construction to create a custom waterfront retreat. Property to be sold as-is. Measurements deemed reliable but not guaranteed by broker, agent, or seller.

24. 2025-06-10
    price $199,900
25. 2025-06-10
    price $199,900
26. 2025-01-14
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $489 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $935 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: +$446/yr (+$37/mo · 91.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$489
• − Insurance: −$5,968
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,691
• − Management: −$1,691
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$3,165
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$760
• After-tax cash flow: $307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Killian

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #22333

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,428

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 115.93%
• Current HPI: 389.85
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-24.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Relisted — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — GSREIN
• 2026-04-29 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-29 Contingent — GSREIN
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $170,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $170,000 GSREIN
• 2026-03-15 Listed $175,000 GSREIN
• 2026-03-15 Listed $175,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-06-10 Price Changed $199,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-06-10 Price Changed $199,900 GSREIN
• 2025-01-14 Listed $225,000 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $489 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.