209 S 1st Ave · Barstow, CA 92311

$120,000

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,916 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1938 3,750 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 3,750 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1938

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $729 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 4.6% in Barstow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#444 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Barstow Unified (town): math 11% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #482 of 517 in CA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 343 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 15 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.05%
• DSCR: 2.16
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $25,653
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $76,670
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92311

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 343
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,225 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$349 /mo · $4,185/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $729

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,301

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 46 events

1. 2025-01-22
   status Pending
2. 2025-01-20
   listed $120,000 Active
3. 2023-09-12
   historical
4. 2023-09-06
   price $279,000
5. 2023-07-28
   listed $280,000 Active
6. 2021-11-30
   price $270,000
7. 2021-11-16
   price $275,999
8. 2021-09-20
   listed $275,000 Active
9. 2021-07-15
   soldstatus $240,000 Closed Sale
10. 2021-07-15
    soldstatus $240,000
11. 2021-07-08
    historical Active Under Contract
12. 2021-04-30
    historical
13. 2021-04-16
    listed $240,000
14. 2020-07-28
    soldstatus $179,500
15. 2020-07-28
    soldstatus $179,500
16. 2020-06-16
    listed $179,500
17. 2020-06-16
    historical
18. 2020-04-22
    price $179,500
19. 2020-03-09
    price $199,500
20. 2020-02-12
    price $211,111
21. 2020-01-28
    listed $221,111 Active
22. 2019-07-11
    soldstatus $33,111 Closed Sale
23. 2019-07-10
    soldstatus $33,111
24. 2019-06-29
    status Pending Sale
25. 2019-06-12
    historical Active Under Contract
26. 2019-05-09
    listed $14,500 Active
27. 2019-05-09
    listed $14,500
28. 2017-12-31
    historical
29. 2017-06-23
    listed $89,950 Active
30. 2013-04-30
    soldstatus $40,000
31. 2012-07-01
    historical
32. 2012-06-22
    price $42,900
33. 2012-05-23
    price $43,000 Active
34. 2012-05-23
    status Active
35. 2012-04-29
    historical Hold
36. 2012-04-29
    status Active
37. 2012-04-28
    historical Hold
38. 2012-04-24
    status Active
39. 2012-04-24
    historical Hold
40. 2012-03-22
    price $39,750
41. 2012-01-19
    listed $39,900 Active
42. 2011-07-01
    historical
43. 2011-01-10
    listed $79,000 Active
44. 2011-01-01
    historical
45. 2010-10-27
    price $59,000
46. 2010-10-13
    listed $79,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,185 · $349/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,185 · $349/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,695
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$4,185
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,136
• − Management: −$2,136
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $7,426
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,782
• After-tax cash flow: $6,970/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barstow Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604020
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,505
• Composite: 14.44/100
• National rank: #9430
• State rank: #482 of 517 in CA

Livability — Barstow

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #444
• US rank: #15099

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barstow, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 33,954
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,954
• Household income: $61,862
• Rent vs Own: 50.0% rent · 50.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1305.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 29% Two or more races 22% Black 15% Native American 3% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.26%
• Current HPI: 316.4858
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.32%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+51.9% since first listed

46 events — show timeline

• 2025-01-22 Pending — TheMLS
• 2025-01-20 Listed $120,000 TheMLS
• 2023-09-12 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-09-06 Price Changed $279,000 CRMLS
• 2023-07-28 Listed $280,000 CRMLS
• 2021-11-30 Price Changed $270,000 CRMLS
• 2021-11-16 Price Changed $275,999 CRMLS
• 2021-09-20 Listed $275,000 CRMLS
• 2021-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-15 Sold (MLS) $240,000 CRMLS
• 2021-07-08 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2021-04-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2021-04-16 Listed $240,000 CRMLS
• 2020-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $179,500 Public Records
• 2020-07-28 Sold (MLS) $179,500 CRMLS
• 2020-06-16 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2020-06-16 Listed $179,500 CRMLS
• 2020-04-22 Price Changed $179,500 CRMLS
• 2020-03-09 Price Changed $199,500 CRMLS
• 2020-02-12 Price Changed $211,111 CRMLS
• 2020-01-28 Listed $221,111 CRMLS
• 2019-07-11 Sold (MLS) $33,111 CRMLS
• 2019-07-10 Sold (MLS) $33,111 CRMLS
• 2019-06-29 Pending — CRMLS
• 2019-06-12 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2019-05-09 Listed $14,500 CRMLS
• 2019-05-09 Listed $14,500 CRMLS
• 2017-12-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2017-06-23 Listed $89,950 CRMLS
• 2013-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2012-07-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2012-06-22 Price Changed $42,900 CRMLS
• 2012-05-23 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2012-05-23 Price Changed $43,000 CRMLS
• 2012-04-29 Delisted — CRMLS
• 2012-04-29 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2012-04-28 Delisted — CRMLS
• 2012-04-24 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2012-04-24 Delisted — CRMLS
• 2012-03-22 Price Changed $39,750 CRMLS
• 2012-01-19 Listed $39,900 CRMLS
• 2011-07-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2011-01-10 Listed $79,000 CRMLS
• 2011-01-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2010-10-27 Price Changed $59,000 CRMLS
• 2010-10-13 Listed $79,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,185 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.