417 Hardy St · Clute, TX 77531

$100,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,519 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1944 0.56 ac lot $66/sqft · 42% below area Est $174k · 42% under ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 0.56 acre lot
• Built 1944
• Listed 108 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 2.5% in Clute — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,002 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Brazosport ISD (suburban): math 43% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #305 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: T W Ogg El (math 39% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 630 students, 86% FRL); Clute Int (math 34% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 946 students, 73% FRL); Brazoswood H S (math 38% / reading 44%, grade F, #774 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 2,398 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 53% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,000 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.39%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,833
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -42.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
712 Sealy St	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,513 (-0%)	9mo	$299,900	$198	74
332 Crestwood St	0.29mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,610 (+6%)	1mo	$254,900	$158	69
228 Hargett St	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,484 (-2%)	12mo	$169,900	$114	64
209 N Lazy Ln	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,727 (+14%)	4mo	$299,000	$173	52
249 S Main St	0.40mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,736 (+14%)	9mo	$98,000	$56	43
420 Cobb St	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,441 (-5%)	15mo	$237,000	$164	40
117 Cannon St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (-8%)	10mo	$245,000	$174	38
131 E Bernard	0.45mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,321 (-13%)	18mo	$110,000	$83	37
122 Emerald Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,660 (+9%)	23mo	$210,000	$127	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $38,466
• Equity at exit: $56,243

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.69×
• Total profit: $103,253
• Equity at exit: $96,717

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77531

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,464 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$278 /mo · $3,337/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,153

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $302	-5% $274	+0% $246	+5% $218	+10% $189
Rent	-10% $130	-5% $188	+0% $246	+5% $304	+10% $362
Rate	-1.0pp $296	-0.5pp $271	base $246	+0.5pp $220	+1.0pp $194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Brazoswood Dr Clute, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,300	$1.11	45d	1	0.91mi
906 Old Angleton Rd Clute, TX	3.0	1.0	1344	$1,550	$1.15	45d	1	1.00mi
510 Texas 288 Frontage Rd Clute, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,705	$1.39	45d	1	1.02mi
107 Hackberry St Clute, TX	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,125	$1.07	45d	1	1.19mi
400 Timbercreek Dr Richwood, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	813	$1,364	$1.68	0d	24	1.22mi
101 Hackberry St Clute, TX	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,169	$1.11	26d	1	1.27mi
201 Hackberry St Clute, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	772	$1,425	$1.85	0d	184	1.31mi
201 Hackberry St Clute, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	772	$1,425	$1.85	45d	32	1.31mi
301 Cypress St Lake Jackson, TX	3.0	2.5	1878	$2,000	$1.06	45d	1	1.38mi
100 Creekwood Landing Dr Clute, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	931	$1,700	$1.83	20d	11	1.43mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $100,000 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $100,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-03-05
    listed $125,000 Active
16. 2026-03-03
    status Active
17. 2026-03-03
    price $125,000
18. 2026-03-02
    historical
19. 2026-02-28
    historical
20. 2026-01-08
    price $150,000
21. 2025-10-02
    listed $180,000 Active
22. 2000-04-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,337 · $278/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,337 · $278/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 59% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥115°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,568
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$3,337
• − Insurance: −$1,298
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,405
• − Management: −$1,405
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $1,611
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$387
• After-tax cash flow: $2,564/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brazosport ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811190
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,024
• Composite: 36.84/100
• National rank: #4557
• State rank: #305 of 826 in TX

Livability — Clute

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1002
• US rank: #17771

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clute, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 16,406
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,406
• Household income: $73,240
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 424.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 34% Two or more races 23% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.93%
• Current HPI: 307.8644
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-30.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-02 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2000-04-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,337 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.