Navajo Plan · Ashland, NE 68003

$298,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,390 sqft · SingleFamily · 741 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.3/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is not built and is a sample of an available plan in this neighborhood. Lot not included in price. The Navajo floorplan is timeless, and easy to see why! We've been building this plan for years! The Navajo is an open-concept, three-bedroom ranch plan with 1,390 square-feet and a three-stall garage. It features vaulted ceilings in the kitchen, dining room, and living room. The pass-through laundry room is unique to this plan, as it connects to both entrances and the hallway to the bedrooms for convenience.

Key facts

• Vaulted ceilings
• 3 parking spots
• Listed 741 days

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT RANCH PLAN
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• PASS-THROUGH LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $298,800 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $420,800.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (31.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (39.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (39.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#8 in NE, #712 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Ashland-Greenwood Public Schools (town): math 51% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #50 of 111 in NE (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 138 units permitted in Saunders County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $564 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Saunders County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 741 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $179,900 (39.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 741 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.43% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.14%
• DSCR: 0.33
• GRM: 19.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $420,800
• List price: $298,800
• Delta: -28.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1249 S 9th Ave	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,417 (+2%)	8mo	$378,545	$267	86
1029 S 9th Ave	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,493 (+7%)	2mo	$420,800	$282	77
1017 S 9th Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,537 (+11%)	1mo	$422,525	$275	74
1452 S 9th Ave	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,537 (+11%)	7mo	$426,425	$277	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-104,323
• Equity at exit: $125,014

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-154,448
• Equity at exit: $152,548

Cash invested: $117,824 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68003

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,799 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,207
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$526 /mo · $6,312/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-1,487

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,681

Max offer price $205,651

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,196	-5% $-1,341	+0% $-1,487	+5% $-1,632	+10% $-1,778
Rent	-10% $-1,629	-5% $-1,558	+0% $-1,487	+5% $-1,416	+10% $-1,345
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,275	-0.5pp $-1,380	base $-1,487	+0.5pp $-1,596	+1.0pp $-1,707

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,200
• Closing costs: $12,624
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2724 Silver St Unit 101 Ashland, NE	2.0	2.0	1299	$1,850	$1.42	2d	1	1.47mi
2724 Silver St Unit 204 Ashland, NE	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,730	$1.50	44d	1	1.47mi
2724 Silver St Unit 206 Ashland, NE	2.0	2.0	1204	$1,810	$1.50	11d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $298,800 Active 741 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $298,800 Active 740 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $298,800 Active 739 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $298,800 Active 738 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $298,800 Active 736 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $298,800 Active 733 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $298,800 Active 732 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $298,800 Active 731 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $298,800 Active 730 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $298,800 Active 727 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $298,800 Active 726 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $298,800 Active 725 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $298,800 Active 724 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $298,800 Active 723 DOM
15. 2026-03-11
    price $298,800 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    This home is not built and is a sample of an available plan in this neighborhood. Lot not included in price. The Navajo floorplan is timeless, and easy to see why! We've been building this plan for years! The Navajo is an open-concept, three-bedroom ranch plan with 1,390 square-feet and a three-stall garage. It features vaulted ceilings in the kitchen, dining room, and living room. The pass-through laundry room is unique to this plan, as it connects to both entrances and the hallway to the bedrooms for convenience.

16. 2025-01-10
    price $292,100 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    This home is not built and is a sample of an available plan in this neighborhood. Lot not included in price. The Navajo floorplan is timeless, and easy to see why! We've been building this plan for years! The Navajo is an open-concept, three-bedroom ranch plan with 1,390 square-feet and a three-stall garage. It features vaulted ceilings in the kitchen, dining room, and living room. The pass-through laundry room is unique to this plan, as it connects to both entrances and the hallway to the bedrooms for convenience.

17. 2024-06-07
    listed $289,900 Active 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    This home is not built and is a sample of an available plan in this neighborhood. Lot not included in price. The Navajo floorplan is timeless, and easy to see why! We've been building this plan for years! The Navajo is an open-concept, three-bedroom ranch plan with 1,390 square-feet and a three-stall garage. It features vaulted ceilings in the kitchen, dining room, and living room. The pass-through laundry room is unique to this plan, as it connects to both entrances and the hallway to the bedrooms for convenience.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,571
• − Property taxes: −$6,312
• − Insurance: −$2,104
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,727
• − Management: −$1,727
• − Depreciation: −$12,241
• Taxable loss: −$26,095
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,263
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,579/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ashland-Greenwood Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3100034
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,116
• Composite: 45.72/100
• National rank: #2573
• State rank: #50 of 111 in NE

Livability — Ashland

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #712

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,953

Population outlook (Saunders County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,261 people
• By 2030: 21,249 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 20,927 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 20,041 · -5.7%
• By 2075: 18,386 · -13.5%
• By 2100: 15,066 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saunders

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.4) · D 26.2% · R 72.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -46.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.4 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+33.8 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.13%
• Current HPI: 293.1932
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+3.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $298,800 Zillow
• 2025-01-10 Price Changed $292,100 Zillow
• 2024-06-07 Listed $289,900 Zillow