9817 Balboa Dr · Ferguson, MO 63136

$99,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,519 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1950 0.31 ac lot $66/sqft · 21% below area Est $127k · 21% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Great starter home or investment opportunity! This 1.5-story property features 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, offering a comfortable and functional layout. Enjoy cozy evenings by the fireplace, plus the added space of a full basement for storage or future finishing. An oversized one-car garage provides extra room for parking and tools. Relax outdoors on the covered porch or entertain on the deck—this home has plenty to offer inside and out.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Full basement
• Deck

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• COVERED PORCH
• OVERSIZED ONE-CAR GARAGE
• DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,519 (source: public records); Lot size about 0.3085 acres
• Financial info: Lease not considered; No second mortgage recorded

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service (other)
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-and-a-half stories; House structure
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Level lot; Lot dimensions approximately 105 x 128

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on upper level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room fireplace; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $446 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 9.2% in Ferguson — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#586 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Moline Elem. (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,058 of 1,115 statewide, top 96%, 295 students, 99% FRL); Riverview Gardens Sr. High (math 2% / reading 18%, grade F, #501 of 521 statewide, top 97%, 1,331 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $100k implies a 394% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.14%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,935
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -21.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1831 Longford Dr	0.27mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,444 (-5%)	0mo	$155,000	$107	74
9803 Balboa Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,323 (-13%)	8mo	$120,000	$91	66
9833 Dennis Dr	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,572 (+4%)	4mo	$34,900	$22	61
9754 Lorna Ln	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,416 (-7%)	6mo	$60,000	$42	61
9747 Millburn Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,656 (+9%)	8mo	$84,800	$51	60
10114 Saffron Dr	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,445 (-5%)	0mo	$149,500	$103	59
9539 Marveline Dr	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,544 (+2%)	7mo	$150,000	$97	58
9746 Newton Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+10%)	3mo	$169,500	$101	50
9820 Lorna Ln	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,338 (-12%)	3mo	$119,900	$90	50
10000 Knollcrest Dr	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,365 (-10%)	7mo	$59,900	$44	48
9706 Newton Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,310 (-14%)	9mo	$208,000	$159	39
9724 Venice Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,310 (-14%)	12mo	$120,000	$92	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $47,607
• Equity at exit: $49,429

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.62×
• Total profit: $129,210
• Equity at exit: $79,886

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,434 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,451/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $446

Break-even live

Break-even rent $869

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $503	-5% $474	+0% $446	+5% $418	+10% $390
Rent	-10% $333	-5% $390	+0% $446	+5% $503	+10% $559
Rate	-1.0pp $496	-0.5pp $472	base $446	+0.5pp $420	+1.0pp $394

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9812 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,495	$1.00	22d	1	0.01mi
1926 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1095	$995	$0.91	15d	1	0.23mi
9717 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,323	$1.25	44d	1	0.62mi
2257 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	24d	1	0.79mi
1915 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1740	$1,500	$0.86	4d	1	0.91mi
10304 Bon Oak Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,250	$0.83	44d	1	0.92mi
2326 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,050	$0.99	24d	1	0.96mi
62 Capitol Hill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,250	$1.01	44d	1	0.98mi
8883 Saint Cyr Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1632	$1,200	$0.74	44d	1	0.99mi
25 S Dellwood Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1944	$1,600	$0.82	44d	1	1.00mi
8824 Huiskamp Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1548	$1,200	$0.78	24d	1	1.12mi
10322 Monarch Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,728	$1.61	24d	1	1.15mi
44 Jendale Ct Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1820	$1,350	$0.74	24d	1	1.23mi
945 Edgehill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1110	$1,575	$1.42	44d	1	1.33mi
2646 Terrace Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,275	$0.81	24d	1	1.35mi
1006 Highmont Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1920	$1,550	$0.81	44d	1	1.37mi
299 Dashwood Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1920	$1,575	$0.82	24d	1	1.37mi
10606 Kilbourn Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	2100	$1,395	$0.66	44d	1	1.41mi
9908 Norbridge Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1240	$1,650	$1.33	20d	1	1.46mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1561	$2,100	$1.35	2d	1	1.49mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,776	$1.18	44d	1	1.49mi
10501 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1140	$1,090	$0.96	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $99,900 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,900 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $109,900 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $109,900 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,900 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $109,900 Active 449-char remark
16. 2019-12-05
    soldstatus $20,206
17. 2013-12-20
    soldstatus $23,722
18. 2006-12-20
    soldstatus $114,000
19. 1999-03-18
    soldstatus $61,000
20. 1993-01-21
    soldstatus $63,000
21. 1992-09-23
    soldstatus
22. 1989-08-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,451 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,451 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,204
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,451
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,376
• − Management: −$1,376
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $3,999
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$960
• After-tax cash flow: $4,394/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ferguson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #586
• US rank: #20809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+58.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $99,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listed $109,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $20,206 Public Records
• 2013-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $23,722 Public Records
• 2006-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $114,000 Public Records
• 1999-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records
• 1993-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 1992-09-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,451 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.