17928 Sunrise Cir NW · Elk River, MN 55330

$240,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1974 0.77 ac lot Est $342k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Oversized yard and deck. Three nice size BR's on main level with potential fourth on LL, has egress, needs closet. FR features wood burning stove with blower. New Pella front window and roof in 99. Septic sold as is. Quick closing available.

Key facts

• 0.77 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1974

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual taxes listed (see agent for details)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2-car garage (20 x 20)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system (compliant); Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; One story
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Lot on 0.77 acre (approximate); Lot dimensions: 151 x 240 x 131 x 120

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full basement with block construction

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($973/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (6.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (6.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.4% in Elk River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#265 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Independent School District 728 (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #37 of 301 in MN (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 453 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 334 units permitted in Sherburne County in 2024 (58 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $224,871 (6.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.45%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $341,712
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13654 Mississippi Rd NW	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+7%)	2mo	$365,000	$226	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-33,670
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-22,441
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55330

• Active inventory: 453
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,249 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$337 /mo · $4,042/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,146

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-26
   listed $240,000 Active
3. 2004-04-08
   soldstatus $169,900
4. 2004-03-25
   soldstatus $169,900 242-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   Oversized yard and deck. Three nice size BR's on main level with potential fourth on LL, has egress, needs closet. FR features wood burning stove with blower. New Pella front window and roof in 99. Septic sold as is. Quick closing available.

5. 2004-03-17
   historical 242-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   Oversized yard and deck. Three nice size BR's on main level with potential fourth on LL, has egress, needs closet. FR features wood burning stove with blower. New Pella front window and roof in 99. Septic sold as is. Quick closing available.

6. 2004-02-21
   listed $159,900 242-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   Oversized yard and deck. Three nice size BR's on main level with potential fourth on LL, has egress, needs closet. FR features wood burning stove with blower. New Pella front window and roof in 99. Septic sold as is. Quick closing available.

7. 2004-02-18
   historical
8. 2003-12-09
   listed $154,900
9. 1998-05-28
   soldstatus $96,611
10. 1994-06-29
    soldstatus $73,000
11. 1994-05-26
    historical
12. 1994-03-21
    listed $73,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,042 · $337/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,042 · $337/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,985
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$4,042
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,159
• − Management: −$2,159
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$3,000
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$720
• After-tax cash flow: $1,693/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Independent School District 728
• NCES district ID: 2711370
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,336
• Composite: 52.5/100
• National rank: #1567
• State rank: #37 of 301 in MN

Livability — Elk River

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #5795

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elk River, MN
• County: Sherburne County · 120,363 people
• City population: 45,721
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 45,721
• Household income: $115,761
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 285.0

Population outlook (Sherburne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,402 people
• By 2030: 99,341 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 101,188 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 99,214 · +1.9%
• By 2075: 88,700 · -8.9%
• By 2100: 72,241 · -25.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sherburne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.9) · D 31.7% · R 66.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.7pp toward R · 2008: -18.2pp · 2024: -34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.9 2020: R+32.6 2016: R+37.0 2012: R+22.1 2008: R+18.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.46%
• Current HPI: 241.3028
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+226.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-26 Listed $240,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $169,900 Public Records
• 2004-03-25 Sold (MLS) $169,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-03-17 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-02-21 Listed $159,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-02-18 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-12-09 Listed $154,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $96,611 Public Records
• 1994-06-29 Sold (MLS) $73,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-05-26 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-03-21 Listed $73,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,042 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.