211 Millpond Ln · Jefferson City, MO 65109

$169,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1981 10,018 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This adorable ranch home will not disappoint! You'll notice the pride of ownership the moment you pull up. The well cared for landscaping really sets the tone for what this home has to offer. Inside you'll find updates throughout. From brand new flooring, kitchen cabinets & Counter tops and much more! This home is completely move in ready! Enjoy the privacy of the screened in back porch. Oh, and the backyard is HUGE on this home and it already has the privacy fence built in. Separate storage shed that comes with a mower and you even get your very own hot tub! You won't believe what you're getting for the price of this home. Did I mention it's just outside the city limits and qualifies for 100% USDA financing? Don't let this one slip away!

Key facts

• Huge flat backyard
• Privacy fence
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• VERSATILE BONUS ROOM
• MAIN-LEVEL LAUNDRY
• SCREENED-IN BACK PORCH
• HUGE FLAT BACKYARD
• PRIVACY FENCE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation; Built as residential single family
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 8 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Electric heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main-level laundry; Water softener (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-577/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.7% in Jefferson City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#7 in MO, #838 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Jefferson City (urban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #121 of 324 in MO (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pioneer Trail Elementary (math 39% / reading 55%, grade D-, #347 of 1,115 statewide, top 35%, 477 students, 46% FRL); Thomas Jefferson Middle (math 33% / reading 44%, grade F, #202 of 391 statewide, top 54%, 957 students, 52% FRL); Capital City High School (math 45% / reading 67%, grade C, #59 of 521 statewide, top 11%, 1,404 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.2%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 173 units permitted in Cole County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cole County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $126,564 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-23,964
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $5,393
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65109

• Home prices YoY: -29.2%
• Rents YoY: 10.2%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,266 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,034/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $-48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,327

Max offer price $161,404

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $48	-5% $0	+0% $-48	+5% $-96	+10% $-144
Rent	-10% $-148	-5% $-98	+0% $-48	+5% $2	+10% $52
Rate	-1.0pp $37	-0.5pp $-5	base $-48	+0.5pp $-92	+1.0pp $-137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1043 Emily Ln Unit 1045 Jefferson City, MO	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,350	$0.93	21d	1	1.11mi
512 Doe Run Unit A Jefferson City, MO	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,850	$1.32	21d	1	1.19mi
5107 Deer Rdg Unit 10 Jefferson City, MO	2.0	1.0	860	$825	$0.96	44d	1	1.19mi
5107 Deer Rdg Unit 3 Jefferson City, MO	2.0	1.0	860	$850	$0.99	13d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,900 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $169,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,034 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,648 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$614/yr (+$51/mo · 59.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,188
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,034
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,215
• − Management: −$1,215
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$3,586
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$861
• After-tax cash flow: $283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson City
• NCES district ID: 2916190
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,903
• Composite: 35.45/100
• National rank: #4930
• State rank: #121 of 324 in MO

Livability — Jefferson City

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #838

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cole County · 41,145 people
• City population: 41,145
• Metro: Jefferson City, MO
• Population (ZIP): 41,145
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 984.0

Population outlook (Cole County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,107 people
• By 2030: 78,089 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 76,814 · -1.7%
• By 2050: 74,515 · -4.6%
• By 2075: 67,687 · -13.3%
• By 2100: 55,023 · -29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cole

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.4) · D 32.1% · R 66.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.5pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -34.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.4 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+36.8 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.14%
• Current HPI: 202.01
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.19%
• Metro: Jefferson City, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+83.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $169,900 JCMLS
• 2015-07-14 Sold (MLS) — JCMLS
• 2015-06-09 Listed $92,500 JCMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,034 · +14.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.