31989 Biagio Way · French Valley, CA 92596

$400,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Condo public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2005 $384/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this cozy condominium in the heart of French Valley with NEW tile flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms, and NEW hardwood laminate flooring throughout. This condo boasts 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and attached over-sized two-car garage. The complex offers a huge pool and spa, play area, barbecues, and security patrol. Close to schools, shopping, wine country, and freeways.

Key facts

• Private balconies
• Open concept living
• Dual vanities

Tags

• CORNER UNIT
• PRIVATE BALCONIES
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• LARGE WALK IN CLOSET
• DUAL VANITIES
• NEW CARPET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: A1; Directions available for property location
• HOA & community: Part of the Casabella homeowners association; Monthly HOA fee; Association amenities include pool, clubhouse, playground, dog park, trash service, and grounds maintenance; Community has street lighting

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two garage spaces; Two total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Attached property; Two total stories; Has a view
• Construction: Year built per assessor; Assessor-reported construction details
• Exterior features: Community pool; Part of a multi-unit community with 205 units; One common wall; Assessor's lot and living area data

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms; Remaining bedrooms are upstairs
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: Two-story home; Entry on main level; One entry location; All bedrooms located upstairs; Main level includes 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms; Has view
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home; Laundry located in a closet; Stackable washer/dryer capability

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-647 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (28.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $298k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.5% in French Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#655 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Temecula Valley Unified (urban): math 55% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #173 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: French Valley Elementary (880 students, 24% FRL); Bella Vista Middle (1,396 students, 26% FRL); Chaparral High (3,030 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $195k; list at $400k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $285,721 (28.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.93%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $168,101
• Equity at exit: $360,352

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.57×
• Total profit: $512,165
• Equity at exit: $777,112

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,982 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$354 /mo · $4,252/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$384
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$626
• Net cashflow: $-647

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,801

Max offer price $285,721

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-420	-5% $-534	+0% $-647	+5% $-760	+10% $-873
Rent	-10% $-882	-5% $-765	+0% $-647	+5% $-529	+10% $-411
Rate	-1.0pp $-445	-0.5pp $-545	base $-647	+0.5pp $-751	+1.0pp $-856

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32330 Shrimp Ln Unit A Winchester, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,595	$2.16	22d	1	0.37mi
34875 Pourroy Rd Winchester, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	976	$2,980	$3.05	0d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $384 · $4,608/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $400,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $400,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $400,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $400,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $400,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $400,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,252 · $354/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,252 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥104°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,783
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$4,252
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,863
• − Management: −$2,863
• − HOA: −$4,608
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$14,845
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,563
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,200/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Temecula Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600028
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $84,032
• Composite: 57.48/100
• National rank: #2264
• State rank: #173 of 1400 in CA

Livability — French Valley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #655
• US rank: #20351

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: French Valley, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+25.0% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $400,000 CRMLS
• 2026-06-11 Coming Soon $400,000 CRMLS
• 2015-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2015-08-06 Sold (MLS) $195,000 CRMLS
• 2015-07-06 Pending — CRMLS
• 2015-06-14 Listed $195,000 CRMLS
• 2015-02-13 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2014-11-14 Listed $200,000 CRMLS
• 2010-01-29 Sold (MLS) $75,000 CRMLS
• 2010-01-13 Pending — CRMLS
• 2010-01-08 Price Changed $74,800 CRMLS
• 2010-01-08 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2009-12-22 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-12-21 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2009-10-23 Pending — CRMLS
• 2009-10-02 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-09-30 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2009-09-19 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-09-05 Listed $89,800 CRMLS
• 2007-07-22 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2007-02-28 Listed $320,000 SDMLS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,252 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.