2902 Applewhite Dr · Douglas, AZ 85607

$65,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,190 sqft · Land public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1992 5.02 ac lot $55/sqft · 36% below area Est $102k · 36% under ↓ 50% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 Bedroom 2 Bath MH. Open floor plan Living and Kitchen Area, huge deck with beautiful mountain views. Within City Limits but with Country Living Ambiance.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Huge deck
• Mountain views

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• HUGE DECK
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• COUNTRY LIVING AMBIANCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $557 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 4.3% in Douglas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#39 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities D-, commute F.
• Douglas Unified District (4174) (town): math 9% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #209 of 249 in AZ (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 163 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.74%
• DSCR: 2.63
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $101,838
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -36.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $24,953
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.70×
• Total profit: $67,414
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85607

• Active inventory: 163
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,230 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $556/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $557

Break-even live

Break-even rent $524

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $594	-5% $576	+0% $557	+5% $539	+10% $520
Rent	-10% $460	-5% $509	+0% $557	+5% $606	+10% $654
Rate	-1.0pp $590	-0.5pp $574	base $557	+0.5pp $540	+1.0pp $523

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
704 N Elizabeth Ave Douglas, AZ	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,700	$1.27	44d	1	0.87mi
1100 N Washington Ave Apt G Douglas, AZ	2.0	1.0	1143	$675	$0.59	44d	1	0.95mi
430 N Christine Ave Douglas, AZ	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,300	$1.21	44d	1	0.96mi
1951 E 13th St Douglas, AZ	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,500	$1.07	44d	1	0.99mi
1955 E 8th St Apt 1 Douglas, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$775	$1.11	44d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 158-char remark

   Show marketing remark (158 chars)

   2 Bedroom 2 Bath MH. Open floor plan Living and Kitchen Area, huge deck with beautiful mountain views. Within City Limits but with Country Living Ambiance.

2. 2026-04-30
   price $65,000 158-char remark

   Show marketing remark (158 chars)

   2 Bedroom 2 Bath MH. Open floor plan Living and Kitchen Area, huge deck with beautiful mountain views. Within City Limits but with Country Living Ambiance.

3. 2026-02-26
   listed $99,900 Active 158-char remark

   Show marketing remark (158 chars)

   2 Bedroom 2 Bath MH. Open floor plan Living and Kitchen Area, huge deck with beautiful mountain views. Within City Limits but with Country Living Ambiance.

4. 2026-01-01
   historical
5. 2025-07-02
   status Active
6. 2025-07-02
   price $122,000
7. 2025-07-01
   historical
8. 2025-01-07
   status Active
9. 2025-01-01
   historical
10. 2024-06-06
    status Active
11. 2024-06-04
    historical
12. 2023-12-09
    listed $129,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $556 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $556 · $46/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,757
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$556
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,181
• − Management: −$1,181
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $5,983
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,436
• After-tax cash flow: $5,251/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Douglas Unified District (4174)
• NCES district ID: 0402530
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $29,006
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9577
• State rank: #209 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Douglas

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #7635

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Douglas, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 17,009

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 88% Two or more races 45% White 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 85%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 24% English-only · Spanish 74% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.92%
• Current HPI: 147.0847
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-50.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $65,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $99,900 ARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-07-02 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $122,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-01-07 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-01-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-06-06 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-06-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-12-09 Listed $129,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $556 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.