5863 Meadowpark Pl · Fish Hawk, FL 33547

$339,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,343 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1999 5,031 sqft lot $10/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing Fishhawk location! Impeccible 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home, in the heart of it all! The home has an amazing open concept layout, large kitchen, and attached 1 car garage! This home is quite the opportunity, so jump before it's gone! The tenant will be out by the end of June.

Key facts

• Screened lanai
• Tree lined buffer
• Walking path

Tags

• SCREENED LANAI
• TREE LINED BUFFER
• WALKING PATH
• ZONED FOR BEVIS ELEMENTARY
• NEW ROOF
• KITCHEN RENOVATIONS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage: less than 1/4 acre (approx. 0.12 acres); Lot size approx. 0.12 acres
• Financial info: CDD present; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA; monthly HOA $10 (annual $120); Association amenities: basketball court, pickleball courts, playground, pool; Association approval not required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single Family Residence; One story; Faces west; Completed condition; Residential property
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Built on slab
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road surface; Lot dimensions 43 x 117

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage; Slab foundation

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-825/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $328k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $295k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#301 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Newsome High School (math 64% / reading 77%, grade B+, #55 of 667 statewide, top 8%, 3,203 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools average 18% FRL vs 52% district-wide (34 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+22 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Hillsborough average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $256k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,203 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.87%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-68,031
• Equity at exit: $50,680

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-98,000
• Equity at exit: $29,388

Cash invested: $95,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33547

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,952 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax from tax record: −$467 /mo · $5,601/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,039

Max offer price $327,758

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $27	+0% $-69	+5% $-165	+10% $-261
Rent	-10% $-302	-5% $-185	+0% $-69	+5% $48	+10% $164
Rate	-1.0pp $102	-0.5pp $18	base $-69	+0.5pp $-157	+1.0pp $-246

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,975
• Closing costs: $10,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6112 Gannetside Pl Lithia, FL	3.0	2.0	1836	$2,650	$1.44	25d	1	0.45mi
6125 Gannetwood Pl Lithia, FL	3.0	2.0	1762	$2,900	$1.65	15d	1	0.52mi
6202 Gannetdale Dr Lithia, FL	4.0	2.5	1718	$2,800	$1.63	5d	1	0.61mi
5901 Wrenwater Dr Lithia, FL	4.0	2.0	1558	$2,450	$1.57	0d	1	0.76mi
6123 Fishhawk Crossing Blvd Lithia, FL	3.0	2.5	1540	$2,295	$1.49	18d	1	1.06mi
5605 Kingsley Corner Way Lithia, FL	3.0	2.5	1825	$2,700	$1.48	17d	1	1.41mi
5756 Spotted Harrier Way Lithia, FL	3.0	2.5	1702	$2,600	$1.53	5d	1	1.42mi
5736 Skytop Dr Lithia, FL	3.0	2.5	1702	$2,600	$1.53	5d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-07
   remarks 693-char remark
2. 2026-06-07
   listed $339,900 Pending 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,601 · $467/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,601 · $467/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,040
• − Property taxes: −$5,601
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,834
• − Management: −$2,834
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$9,888
• Taxable loss: −$6,592
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,582
• After-tax cash flow: $757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fish Hawk

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #301
• US rank: #5133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fish Hawk, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,431
• Household income: $123,258
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 395.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Black 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.61%
• Current HPI: 289.9781
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.76%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-92.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-04 Listed $339,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $256,500 Public Records
• 2021-07-31 Sold (MLS) $256,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-26 Listed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-18 Sold (MLS) $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-07 Listed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-27 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-16 Listed $183,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-04 Listed $187,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $184,600 Public Records
• 1996-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $4,800,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,601 · -6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.