551 Summit Trail Trl #43 · Granby, CO 80446

$199,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,458 sqft · SingleFamily · 376 Days on market

Built 2022 Est $260k · 23% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SELLER WILL PAY TWO MONTHS OF LOT RENT POST CLOSING. Immaculate light and bright home with spacious living area/great room, contemporary kitchen with lots of storage and extra cabinet space. Separate laundry area. Two bedroom two bath layout with bedrooms on opposing ends of the home for ideal privacy. Furniture included so home is turn key and ready to go. Storage shed fits yard items, tools, sports equipment and more. Excellent condition and located conveniently across from dog park and amenity area. Enjoy hiking at the nearby Granby Highlands easement of over 700 acres of protected land. Seller received Blue Ribbon certificate.

Key facts

• Contemporary kitchen
• Lots of storage
• Spacious living area

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• CONTEMPORARY KITCHEN
• LOTS OF STORAGE
• BEDROOMS ON OPPOSING ENDS
• SUN RIVER AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land is leased with a monthly land lease of $850

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Electric service on property
• Home design: Residential mobile home
• Exterior features: Located in Smith Creek Crossing subdivision; Directions: Take HWY 34 from Granby to first Sun River entrance; turn into Smith Creek Crossing and follow number signs to the homes

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range and Oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Washer/Dryer included; Refrigerator; Range and Oven; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Dishwasher
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer included; Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $399 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 1.4% in Granby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#85 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, health & safety F.
• East Grand School District No. 2 (rural): math 36% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #17 of 86 in CO (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 424 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in Grand County in 2024 (82 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grand County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 376 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 376 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.25%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,524
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
551 Summit Trail Trl #78	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,386 (-5%)	8mo	$262,500	$189	80
551 Summit Trl #142	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,602 (+10%)	16mo	$255,000	$159	62
551 Summit Trail Trl #34	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,602 (+10%)	20mo	$285,000	$178	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-6,837
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $27,268
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80446

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,413 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $399

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,907

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 376 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 375 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 374 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 373 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $199,900 Active 371 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $204,500 Active 368 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $204,500 Active 367 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $204,500 Active 366 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $204,500 Active 365 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $204,500 Active 362 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $204,500 Active 361 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $204,500 Active 360 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $204,500 Active 359 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $204,500 Active 358 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $204,500 Active 357 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    price $204,500
17. 2026-04-18
    price $209,000
18. 2026-04-06
    price $218,000
19. 2026-03-30
    price $218,500
20. 2026-03-01
    price $219,000
21. 2026-01-22
    price $226,500
22. 2026-01-21
    status Active
23. 2026-01-21
    historical
24. 2026-01-02
    status Active
25. 2025-11-21
    price $229,000
26. 2025-11-01
    price $231,000
27. 2025-10-15
    price $233,000
28. 2025-09-15
    price $235,000
29. 2025-07-21
    price $238,000
30. 2025-06-05
    listed $244,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥81°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,954
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$2,502
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,316
• − Management: −$2,316
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $1,808
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$434
• After-tax cash flow: $4,360/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Grand School District No. 2
• NCES district ID: 0804320
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $64,903
• Composite: 41.64/100
• National rank: #3424
• State rank: #17 of 86 in CO

Livability — Granby

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #85
• US rank: #7574

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Granby, CO
• County: Grand County · 5,874 people
• City population: 4,017
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 4,017
• Household income: $74,973
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 105.0

Population outlook (Grand County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,498 people
• By 2030: 14,215 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 13,225 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 12,186 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 10,196 · -29.7%
• By 2100: 8,326 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 19% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Portuguese 6% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grand

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.8% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.3pp no change · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: R+1.8 2016: R+13.5 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.78%
• Current HPI: 347.8691
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-16.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $204,500 GCAR
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $209,000 GCAR
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $218,000 GCAR
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $218,500 GCAR
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $219,000 GCAR
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $226,500 GCAR
• 2026-01-21 Relisted — GCAR
• 2026-01-21 Delisted — GCAR
• 2026-01-02 Relisted — GCAR
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $229,000 GCAR
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $231,000 GCAR
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $233,000 GCAR
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $235,000 GCAR
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $238,000 GCAR
• 2025-06-05 Listed $244,000 GCAR