2521 Papoose Trl · Willis, TX 77378

$189,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,234 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 2019 8,102 sqft lot $154/sqft · 13% below area Est $218k · 13% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring a bright open-concept living area that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The cozy bedrooms offer a comfortable retreat, while the spacious primary suite includes a private ensuite bath for added convenience and relaxation. This home boasts a warm and inviting layout with great natural light and functional flow throughout. Whether you're hosting guests or enjoying a quiet night in, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort and livability. A wonderful place to call home, don’t miss it!

Key facts

• 8,102 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2019

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($634/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 710 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,599 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.19%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $217,534
• List price: $189,999
• Delta: -12.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
115 Indian Creek Cir	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+1%)	6mo	$217,000	$174	86
15123 Arrowhead Loop E	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-3%)	1mo	$218,800	$182	85
3507 Sam Houston Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-0%)	1mo	$219,999	$179	80
15119 Arrowhead Loop Rd E	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+5%)	3mo	$232,600	$179	79
14882 Big Springs Cir	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,341 (+9%)	4mo	$228,888	$171	74
14951 Colt Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-8%)	4mo	$200,000	$175	71
2442 Mohawk Bnd	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,303 (+6%)	4mo	$229,900	$176	68
15451 Arrowhead Loop Dr W	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,324 (+7%)	3mo	$219,900	$166	62
15255 Austin Rd	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-3%)	3mo	$200,000	$167	60
3435 Sam Houston Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,378 (+12%)	5mo	$250,000	$181	59
3975 Sam Houston Rd	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,341 (+9%)	1mo	$219,600	$164	54
15113 Austin	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,383 (+12%)	1mo	$239,900	$173	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-30,940
• Equity at exit: $28,329

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-36,458
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 710
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,794 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$279 /mo · $3,351/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,728

Max offer price $189,999

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15309 Coaltown Rd Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,445	$1.20	24d	1	0.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $189,999 Pending 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,999 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,999 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,999 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,999 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $189,999 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,999 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,999 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,999 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,999 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,999 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,999 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,999 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,999 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-04-16
    price $199,999 621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring a bright open-concept living area that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The cozy bedrooms offer a comfortable retreat, while the spacious primary suite includes a private ensuite bath for added convenience and relaxation. This home boasts a warm and inviting layout with great natural light and functional flow throughout. Whether you're hosting guests or enjoying a quiet night in, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort and livability. A wonderful place to call home, don’t miss it!

16. 2026-03-23
    listed $210,000 Active 621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring a bright open-concept living area that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The cozy bedrooms offer a comfortable retreat, while the spacious primary suite includes a private ensuite bath for added convenience and relaxation. This home boasts a warm and inviting layout with great natural light and functional flow throughout. Whether you're hosting guests or enjoying a quiet night in, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort and livability. A wonderful place to call home, don’t miss it!

17. 2020-01-31
    soldstatus Sold 68-char remark

    Show marketing remark (68 chars)

    Call Today for limited New ASGi Homes in Willis! READY MID-NOVEMBER!

18. 2019-12-03
    status Pending 68-char remark

    Show marketing remark (68 chars)

    Call Today for limited New ASGi Homes in Willis! READY MID-NOVEMBER!

19. 2019-11-14
    price $156,200 68-char remark

    Show marketing remark (68 chars)

    Call Today for limited New ASGi Homes in Willis! READY MID-NOVEMBER!

20. 2019-10-31
    price $155,000 68-char remark

    Show marketing remark (68 chars)

    Call Today for limited New ASGi Homes in Willis! READY MID-NOVEMBER!

21. 2019-08-06
    listed $150,000 Active 68-char remark

    Show marketing remark (68 chars)

    Call Today for limited New ASGi Homes in Willis! READY MID-NOVEMBER!

22. 2018-12-11
    soldstatus
23. 1992-03-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,351 · $279/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,477 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$126/yr (+$10/mo · 3.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,534
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$3,351
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,723
• − Management: −$1,723
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$2,503
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$601
• After-tax cash flow: $1,235/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+33.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $199,999 HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2020-01-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-12-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-11-14 Price Changed $156,200 HARMLS
• 2019-10-31 Price Changed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2019-08-06 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2018-12-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+30.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,351 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.