25438 4th St · Grosse Ile, MI 48138

$199,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,172 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 164 Days on market

Built 1910 8,712 sqft lot $170/sqft · 16% below area Est $238k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cozy 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers great opportunities for both immediate living and future development. The upstairs features 2 bedrooms plus a versatile sitting room/family room that could easily be converted into a third bedroom. The home is situated on a large lot that includes two adjacent vacant lots (parcels #73-051-01-0011-000 and #73-052-02-0036-000), providing nearly 3/4 acre of total land--ideal for expanding, building your dream home, or creating your own private oasis. Conveniently located near the free bridge, Centennial Farm, and within walking distance to the river, this property combines a peaceful, rural feel with easy access to local attractions and amenities. Additional features include a detached garage for extra storage or parking.

Key facts

• Large lot
• Detached garage
• 8,712 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• TWO ADJACENT VACANT LOTS
• DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($690/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Grosse Ile Township Schools (suburban): math 50% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #38 of 540 in MI (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $159,676 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.24%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $237,657
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -16.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25241 Meridian Rd	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,308 (+12%)	18mo	$200,000	$153	39
7938 Macomb St	0.61mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,295 (+10%)	23mo	$151,000	$117	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-28,667
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-20,579
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48138

• Home prices YoY: -34.8%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,597 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $930/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,524

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10228 Nancys Blvd Grosse Ile Township, MI	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,700	$1.39	1d	1	1.23mi
10244 Nancys Blvd #47 Grosse Ile, MI	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,495	$1.25	1d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 153 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,000 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 146 DOM
14. 2026-01-05
    listed $199,000 Active 768-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    This cozy 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers great opportunities for both immediate living and future development. The upstairs features 2 bedrooms plus a versatile sitting room/family room that could easily be converted into a third bedroom. The home is situated on a large lot that includes two adjacent vacant lots (parcels #73-051-01-0011-000 and #73-052-02-0036-000), providing nearly 3/4 acre of total land—ideal for expanding, building your dream home, or creating your own private oasis. Conveniently located near the free bridge, Centennial Farm, and within walking distance to the river, this property combines a peaceful, rural feel with easy access to local attractions and amenities. Additional features include a detached garage for extra storage or parking.

15. 2026-01-05
    listed $199,000 Active 776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    This cozy 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers great opportunities for both immediate living and future development. The upstairs features 2 bedrooms plus a versatile sitting room/family room that could easily be converted into a third bedroom. The home is situated on a large lot that includes two adjacent vacant lots (parcels #73-051-01-0011-000 and #73-052-02-0036-000), providing nearly 3/4 acre of total land—ideal for expanding, building your dream home, or creating your own private oasis. Conveniently located near the free bridge, Centennial Farm, and within walking distance to the river, this property combines a peaceful, rural feel with easy access to local attractions and amenities. Additional features include a detached garage for extra storage or parking.

16. 2026-01-05
    listed $199,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    This cozy 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers great opportunities for both immediate living and future development. The upstairs features 2 bedrooms plus a versatile sitting room/family room that could easily be converted into a third bedroom. The home is situated on a large lot that includes two adjacent vacant lots (parcels #73-051-01-0011-000 and #73-052-02-0036-000), providing nearly 3/4 acre of total land—ideal for expanding, building your dream home, or creating your own private oasis. Conveniently located near the free bridge, Centennial Farm, and within walking distance to the river, this property combines a peaceful, rural feel with easy access to local attractions and amenities. Additional features include a detached garage for extra storage or parking.

17. 2026-01-01
    historical
18. 2025-12-31
    historical
19. 2025-05-21
    status Active
20. 2025-05-19
    status Active
21. 2025-05-19
    status Active
22. 2025-05-19
    historical
23. 2025-05-18
    historical
24. 2025-05-18
    historical
25. 2024-11-18
    listed $199,000 Active
26. 2024-11-18
    listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $930 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,997 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,067/yr (+$89/mo · 114.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,161
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$930
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,533
• − Management: −$1,533
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,765
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$664
• After-tax cash flow: $1,353/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grosse Ile Township Schools
• NCES district ID: 2617220
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $89,099
• Composite: 52.27/100
• National rank: #1597
• State rank: #38 of 540 in MI

Livability — Grosse Ile

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,603

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.87%
• Current HPI: 204.4348
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-05 Listed $199,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-05 Listed $199,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $199,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-05-21 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2025-05-19 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2025-05-19 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-05-19 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-05-18 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-05-18 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2024-11-18 Listed $199,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-11-18 Listed $199,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $930 · -59.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.