27150 Shadel Rd #27 Plan · Menifee, CA 92586

$140,995

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 930 sqft · Manufactured · 1 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This brand-new 2026 manufactured home offers 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms in a quiet, friendly 55+ community in Menifee. The open-concept layout features abundant natural light, modern finishes, and a stylish kitchen with ample storage and energy-efficient appliances. The primary suite includes a private bath, while the second bedroom provides flexibility for guests or hobbies. Enjoy low-maintenance outdoor space and a peaceful neighborhood atmosphere, all conveniently located near shopping and dining. A perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and relaxed living awaits.

Key facts

• Private bath
• Stylish kitchen
• Modern finishes

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN FINISHES
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• AMPLE STORAGE
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 27150 Shadel Rd, Menifee, CA 92586; Listing provided by Zillow; information deemed reliable but not guaranteed
• Financial info: List price $140,995

Exterior

• Home design: Single-level plan identified as 27150 Shadel Rd #27; Active listing status
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 930

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (total, all full)
• Interior features: Plan home (new construction inventory type: Plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $141k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $814 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $141k).
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 3.6% in Menifee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#407 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A-; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, amenities D.
• Menifee Union Elementary (suburban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #434 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,263/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1163% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $975 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,995

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.73%
• DSCR: 2.10
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $56,730
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27150 Shadel Rd #75	0.19mi	2/1.0	960 (+3%)	14mo	$59,000	$61	70
27150 Shadel Rd #67	0.13mi	2/2.0	840 (-10%)	13mo	$10,000	$12	67
27150 Shadel Rd #138	0.13mi	2/2.5	800 (-14%)	12mo	$32,000	$40	59
27150 Shadel Rd #111	0.19mi	2/1.0	800 (-14%)	20mo	$22,000	$28	47
27601 Sun City Blvd Spc 194	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+12%)	14mo	$110,000	$106	46
27601 Sun City Blvd #291	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,060 (+14%)	19mo	$110,000	$104	38
27601 Sun City Blvd #143	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,068 (+15%)	18mo	$115,000	$108	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $36,278
• Equity at exit: $21,023

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.30×
• Total profit: $130,276
• Equity at exit: $12,191

Cash invested: $39,479 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92586

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,263 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$739
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$176 /mo · $2,115/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $814

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,233

Max offer price $140,995

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,249
• Closing costs: $4,230
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
28082 Bavaria Dr Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1065	$2,250	$2.11	1d	1	0.49mi
28230 Avenida Francesca Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1116	$2,250	$2.02	1d	1	0.64mi
28244 Encanto Dr Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,300	$2.56	1d	1	0.66mi
28301 Encanto Dr Unit 10 Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,200	$2.44	17d	1	0.72mi
28301 Encanto Dr Menifee, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$2,025	$2.32	1d	5	0.77mi
27757 Aspel Rd Menifee, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1026	$2,869	$2.80	1d	15	0.78mi
28377 Encanto Dr Menifee, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	815	$2,150	$2.64	1d	7	0.84mi
27051 Sun City Blvd Unit 1 Menifee, CA	2.0	1.0	729	$1,975	$2.71	1d	1	0.89mi
26217 Birkdale Rd Menifee, CA	1.0	1.0	876	$2,150	$2.45	1d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 573-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $140,995 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,898
• − Property taxes: −$2,115
• − Insurance: −$705
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,173
• − Management: −$2,173
• − Depreciation: −$4,102
• Taxable income: $7,993
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,918
• After-tax cash flow: $7,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This brand-new 2026 manufactured home offers a modern and stylish interior with energy-efficient appliances and ample natural light. The property is move-in ready with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space
• Both Replace window treatments — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Menifee Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0624540
• Math proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,228
• Composite: 45.17/100
• National rank: #5790
• State rank: #434 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Menifee

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #13882

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Menifee, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 111,667
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,767
• Household income: $57,708
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1163.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.18%
• Current HPI: 364.9577
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.10%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B