317 Long Prairie Dr · Forney, TX 75126

$295,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,250 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2003 0.57 ac lot Est $338k · 13% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Open Houses Cancelled; Accepting Backup Offers. Within a stone's through of Forney's growing shopping & entertainment, this beautiful home sits on one of the largest lots you'll find in a newer housing development. Over half an acre presents this 1 story brick home. With a new roof from 2019 and a new fence for the backyard, your new home also has stainless steel appliances in a stunning kitchen with lots of space. You'll find the Master Bedroom in the back of the house, providing some privacy from the other bedrooms, complete with a garden tub and walk-in closet. Kids Playground is included in the home. Come today, Offer Tomorrow, and Start Packing!

Key facts

• Replaced roof
• Garden tub
• 0.57 acre lot

Tags

• REPLACED ROOF
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ABUNDANT COUNTER SPACE
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• GARDEN TUB
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (Deerfield Heights); HOA fee $250 annually; HOA fees include maintenance of structures

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; garage faces front; 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Sidewalks; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence (attached); Built in 2003
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Covered patio/porch; Gardens; Gutters; Outdoor storage; Wood fence in back yard; Large backyard with grass; Landscaped yard; Few trees; Sprinkler system; Located on an interior lot in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave; Vented exhaust fan; Breakfast bar; Built-in cabinets; Eat-in kitchen; Natural stone/granite counters; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) with dual sinks, garden tub, separate shower, medicine cabinet and walk-in closet; Three additional bedrooms (first floor)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in features; Decorative lighting; High-speed internet available; Vaulted ceilings; Two living areas; One dining area; Total of 8 rooms; One-level living
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Criswell El (math 41% / reading 50%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 807 students, 50% FRL); Brown Middle (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 673 students, 56% FRL); North Forney H S (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,502 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 26% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,938 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.77%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $337,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
112 Garner Ct	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,350 (+4%)	0mo	$305,000	$130	81
120 Big Bend Dr	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,152 (-4%)	2mo	$295,000	$137	76
221 Wolf Dr	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,510 (+12%)	1mo	$320,000	$127	72
510 Fort Davis Dr	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,322 (+3%)	2mo	$384,525	$166	71
124 Antler Trl	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,994 (-11%)	1mo	$300,000	$150	70
104 Acadia Ln	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,996 (-11%)	1mo	$294,900	$148	69
100 Patriot Pkwy	0.59mi	4/2.0	2,316 (+3%)	1mo	$350,000	$151	67
506 Fort Davis Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5	2,543 (+13%)	2mo	$399,090	$157	60
1210 Haggetts Pond Rd	0.61mi	4/2.0	2,062 (-8%)	1mo	$300,999	$146	57
421 Tuscany Dr	0.57mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,416 (+7%)	1mo	$369,900	$153	52
534 Tuscany Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,069 (-8%)	2mo	$344,989	$167	51
605 Marlee Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,054 (-9%)	2mo	$300,000	$146	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-63,833
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-86,616
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,569 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$530 /mo · $6,358/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $-191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,811

Max offer price $261,274

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-24	-5% $-107	+0% $-191	+5% $-274	+10% $-358
Rent	-10% $-394	-5% $-292	+0% $-191	+5% $-89	+10% $12
Rate	-1.0pp $-42	-0.5pp $-116	base $-191	+0.5pp $-267	+1.0pp $-345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
236 Archer Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2016	$2,300	$1.14	21d	1	0.10mi
213 Long Prairie Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1964	$2,025	$1.03	19d	1	0.15mi
120 Garner Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2214	$2,500	$1.13	45d	1	0.18mi
108 Antler Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2250	$2,449	$1.09	26d	1	0.26mi
100 Acadia Ln Forney, TX	5.0	4.5	3216	$2,850	$0.89	9d	1	0.29mi
501 Branch St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2130	$2,270	$1.07	1d	1	0.33mi
209 Chesapeake Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2950	$3,400	$1.15	45d	1	0.35mi
507 Thunder Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,300	$1.28	1d	1	0.36mi
110 Meadow Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1840	$1,783	$0.97	1d	1	0.52mi
293 Arbury Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2928	$2,801	$0.96	26d	1	0.55mi
293 Arbury Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2928	$2,590	$0.88	9d	1	0.55mi
204 Freedom Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,925	$1.21	4d	1	0.55mi
2201 Woodberry Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$2,050	$1.11	45d	1	0.57mi
1124 Longhorn Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2093	$2,500	$1.19	26d	1	0.57mi
105 Independence Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,900	$1.18	9d	1	0.57mi
280 Cisco Trl Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2476	$3,800	$1.53	26d	1	0.57mi
102 Galloping Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1663	$1,999	$1.20	9d	1	0.61mi
2127 Pecan Ridge Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2113	$2,100	$0.99	45d	1	0.62mi
315 Forestwood Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2102	$2,085	$0.99	26d	1	0.63mi
236 Pennridge Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1871	$2,295	$1.23	26d	1	0.64mi
2105 Cardinal Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,200	$1.25	24d	1	0.65mi
413 Redbud Dr Unit NA Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1671	$2,200	$1.32	45d	1	0.68mi
525 Ardsley Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1775	$2,395	$1.35	1d	1	0.69mi
130 Monument Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2748	$3,499	$1.27	26d	1	0.71mi
502 Ponderosa Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2131	$2,145	$1.01	1d	1	0.71mi
2239 Heaton Forney, TX	5.0	2.5	2780	$3,299	$1.19	19d	1	0.73mi
2225 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1909	$2,150	$1.13	45d	1	0.74mi
534 Tuscany Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2069	$2,500	$1.21	45d	1	0.75mi
2213 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2146	$2,395	$1.12	9d	1	0.76mi
2213 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2146	$2,395	$1.12	19d	1	0.76mi
1408 Grove Pond Rd Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2543	$3,095	$1.22	45d	1	0.77mi
1412 Grove Pond Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1708	$2,500	$1.46	21d	1	0.78mi
511 Rosewood Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,070	$1.09	24d	1	0.79mi
1410 Crossford Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2707	$2,650	$0.98	4d	1	0.79mi
106 Painted Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2926	$2,395	$0.82	45d	1	0.94mi
106 Painted Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2926	$2,725	$0.93	15d	1	0.94mi
635 Brockwell Bnd Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2506	$3,300	$1.32	21d	1	1.04mi
1108 Redcoat Dr , TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,250	$1.25	6d	1	1.11mi
1421 Kirkhill Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$3,600	$1.41	26d	1	1.12mi
1421 Kirkhill Ln Unit 1421 Heath, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$3,500	$1.38	22d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $295,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 687-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $295,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,358 · $530/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,358 · $530/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,833
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$6,358
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,467
• − Management: −$2,467
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$7,292
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,750
• After-tax cash flow: $-541/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forney, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+77.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $295,000 NTREIS
• 2024-04-30 Rental Removed $2,400 NTREIS
• 2024-04-23 Price Changed $2,400 NTREIS
• 2024-04-17 Listed for Rent $2,500 NTREIS
• 2021-01-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-12-30 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-11-20 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-11-13 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2020-11-03 Listed $275,000 NTREIS
• 2019-08-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-08-09 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2019-07-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2019-07-01 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2019-06-27 Listed $245,000 NTREIS
• 2005-01-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2005-01-20 Listed $165,990 NTREIS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,358 · -12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.