483 County Route 29 · Oswego, NY 13126

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2002 1.03 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

What a well maintained- decorated and updated home! From the pages of pottery barn, this home and décor is warm and inviting. Updated and well cared for with unique window styles, wood laminate floors- eat in kitchen - master with bath- 2 full baths- large newer back deck with spacious yard and new shed. Public water -and many more updates.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Walk in closet
• 10x14 shed

Tags

• LARGE DECK
• WALK IN CLOSET
• 10X14 SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $327 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#265 in NY, #4,189 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, commute F.
• Mexico Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #540 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+19.2%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $160k implies a 146% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $155,200 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.77%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.25% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $9,547
• Equity at exit: $29,232

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $83,183
• Equity at exit: $23,247

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13126

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: 19.2%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,808 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$195 /mo · $2,343/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,394

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-03-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-28
   status Active
3. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-20
   price $160,000
5. 2026-02-25
   price $169,900
6. 2026-02-01
   listed $175,000 Active
7. 2015-04-28
   soldstatus $65,000
8. 2015-04-02
   soldstatus $65,000 350-char remark

   Show marketing remark (350 chars)

   What a well maintained- decorated and updated home! From the pages of pottery barn, this home and décor is warm and inviting. Updated and well cared for with unique window styles, wood laminate floors- eat in kitchen - master with bath- 2 full baths- large newer back deck with spacious yard and new shed. Public water -and many more updates.

9. 2014-11-17
   listed $69,500 350-char remark

   Show marketing remark (350 chars)

   What a well maintained- decorated and updated home! From the pages of pottery barn, this home and décor is warm and inviting. Updated and well cared for with unique window styles, wood laminate floors- eat in kitchen - master with bath- 2 full baths- large newer back deck with spacious yard and new shed. Public water -and many more updates.

10. 2014-04-10
    listed $66,900
11. 2007-12-04
    soldstatus $62,640
12. 1997-07-11
    soldstatus $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,343 · $195/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,524 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: +$180/yr (+$15/mo · 7.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,695
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,343
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,736
• − Management: −$1,736
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $1,463
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$351
• After-tax cash flow: $3,576/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mexico Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619170
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,635
• Composite: 32.55/100
• National rank: #5691
• State rank: #540 of 590 in NY

Livability — Oswego

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #4189

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oswego County · 36,495 people
• City population: 36,495
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,495
• Household income: $65,346
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1341.0

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.25%
• Current HPI: 295.5134
• Rent YoY: ▲ 19.18%
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+566.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-03-28 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2026-03-27 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $160,000 CNYIS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $169,900 CNYIS
• 2026-02-01 Listed $175,000 CNYIS
• 2015-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2015-04-02 Sold (MLS) $65,000 CNYIS
• 2014-11-17 Listed $69,500 CNYIS
• 2014-04-10 Listed $66,900 CNYIS
• 2007-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $62,640 Public Records
• 1997-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,343 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.