🏷️ Likely Rental
6710 36th Ave E · Ellenton, FL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 10/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 107°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 29 days/yr
Wind risk 10/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 3 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 3 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Schools +4.4/10.0
- Livability +3.8/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Rent growth +1.8/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$75,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Spacious 3 bedroom 2 bath with a modern feel. Vaulted great room with fresh paint and new carpeting. Ample dining room with built ins. Clean, light and bright. Lots of storage. Shadowbrook is a non-age restricted community , has a heated community pool, many other features and is pet friendly. Convenient location to I-75.Buyers/Agents - for any escalations surrounding the offer on your property where our Listing Agent is unable to provide an answer, please call the Wells Fargo REO Department at 1-877-617-5274
Key facts
- Vaulted great room
- Ample dining room
- Convenient location
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
- Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 29.4% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
- Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
- Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1170 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 3.22% ✓
- Cap rate
- 29.45%
- Cash-on-cash
- 82.70%
- DSCR
- 4.68
- GRM
- 2.6
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $149,760
- Comps found
- 12
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6710 36th Ave E #241 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,280 (+3%) | 3mo | $120,000 | $94 | 88 |
| 6710 36th Ave E #269 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,292 (+4%) | 8mo | $75,000 | $58 | 83 |
| 6710 36th Ave E #222 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,211 (-3%) | 10mo | $148,000 | $122 | 82 |
| 6710 36th Ave E #359 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,327 (+6%) | 6mo | $150,000 | $113 | 79 |
| 6710 36th Ave E #37 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,152 (-8%) | 7mo | $125,000 | $109 | 76 |
| 6710 36th Ave E #312 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,320 (+6%) | 11mo | $130,000 | $98 | 76 |
| 6710 36th Ave E #104 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,108 (-11%) | 1mo | $144,500 | $130 | 76 |
| 6710 36th Ave E #323 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,152 (-8%) | 10mo | $165,000 | $143 | 73 |
| 6710 36th Ave E #176 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,344 (+8%) | 11mo | $190,000 | $141 | 73 |
| 6710 36th Ave E #8 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,400 (+12%) | 2mo | $190,000 | $136 | 73 |
| 6710 36th Ave E #319 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,348 (+8%) | 11mo | $156,000 | $116 | 72 |
| 6710 36th Ave E #287 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,421 (+14%) | 6mo | $170,000 | $120 | 67 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 79.7%
- Equity multiple
- 4.47×
- Total profit
- $72,942
- Equity at exit
- $11,183
- IRR
- 82.4%
- Equity multiple
- 8.37×
- Total profit
- $154,857
- Equity at exit
- $6,485
Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 34221
- Rents YoY
- -3.0%
- Active inventory
- 1170
- Price-to-rent
- 2.6×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,415 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$393
- Tax from tax record
- −$36 /mo · $431/yr
- Insurance
- −$31
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$507
- Net cashflow
- $1,447
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $1,490 | -5% $1,468 | +0% $1,447 | +5% $1,426 | +10% $1,405 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $1,256 | -5% $1,352 | +0% $1,447 | +5% $1,543 | +10% $1,638 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $1,485 | -0.5pp $1,466 | base $1,447 | +0.5pp $1,428 | +1.0pp $1,408 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $18,750
- Closing costs
- $2,250
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 7 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6010 33rd Dr E Palmetto, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1287 | $2,115 | $1.64 | 5d | 1 | 0.41mi |
| 3303 54th St E Palmetto, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1285 | $2,000 | $1.56 | 5d | 1 | 0.78mi |
| 6045 Bird Key Pl Palmetto, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 986 | $2,445 | $2.48 | 5d | 220 | 0.88mi |
| 9940 Mahaffey DR Palmetto, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–3.0 | 1106 | $2,044 | $1.85 | 25d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 5029 Rocky Coast Pl Palmetto, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1482 | $2,400 | $1.62 | 12d | 1 | 1.06mi |
| 4117 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1448 | $2,466 | $1.70 | 23d | 1 | 1.19mi |
| 5413 Badini Way Palmetto, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1420 | $2,550 | $1.80 | 5d | 1 | 1.33mi |
Listing history 21 events
-
2026-06-22days on market $75,000 Active 36 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $75,000 Active 33 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $75,000 Active 32 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $75,000 Active 31 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $75,000 Active 30 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $75,000 Active 28 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $75,000 Active 27 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $75,000 Active 25 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $75,000 Active 24 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $75,000 Active 23 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $75,000 Active 22 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $75,000 Active 18 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $75,000 Active 17 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $75,000 Active 16 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $75,000 Active 15 DOM
-
2022-08-17soldstatus $120,000
-
2022-08-03soldstatus $160,000
-
2009-10-20soldstatus $50,000
-
2001-12-07soldstatus $59,000
-
1992-12-30soldstatus $168,500
-
1989-02-10soldstatus $25,500
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $431 · $36/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $622 · $52/mo
- Expected delta
- +$191/yr (+$16/mo · 44.4%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 2/10 Low
- Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $28,977
- − Mortgage interest
- −$4,201
- − Property taxes
- −$431
- − Insurance
- −$375
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,318
- − Management
- −$2,318
- − Depreciation
- −$2,182
- Taxable income
- $17,152
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$4,116
- After-tax cash flow
- $13,250/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Manatee
- NCES district ID
- 1201230
- Math proficiency
- 54% ▼ -6.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 50% ▼ -2.00%
- Median HH income
- $49,607
- Composite
- 44.43/100
- National rank
- #2806
- State rank
- #26 of 73 in FL
Livability — Ellenton
- Score
- 76/100
- State rank
- #232
- US rank
- #3666
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Manatee County · 416,364 people
- City population
- 14,819
- Metro
- North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 56,208
- Household income
- $77,712
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1193.0
Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 447,342 people
- By 2030
- 488,911 · +9.3%
- By 2040
- 567,934 · +27.0%
- By 2050
- 637,995 · +42.6%
- By 2075
- 781,970 · +74.8%
- By 2100
- 848,272 · +89.6%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
- Languages at home
- 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Manatee
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -383.53%
- Current HPI
- 302.1458
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -2.98%
- Metro
- North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
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| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
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| Retail | 1 | $60B |
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| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
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| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
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| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
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Price history
+370.6% since first listed6 events — show timeline
- 2022-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
- 2022-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
- 2009-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
- 2001-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records
- 1992-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $168,500 Public Records
- 1989-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $25,500 Public Records
Property tax history
-3.3%/yrLatest (2024): $431 · +20.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…