470 Windy Point Ln · Southold, NY 11971

$1,445,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 84 Days on market

Built 1990 Excellent condition 0.74 ac lot $903/sqft · 35% above area Est $1067k · 35% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Boaters Dream! Located in Southold, this 3-bedroom, 3-bathroom canal-front home on Cory Creek offers a well-designed layout and direct access to the water. The creek leads out to the bay, and the property features a deep-water dock suitable for a variety of boating needs. Inside, the home offers an open-concept living, dining, and kitchen area with a comfortable, functional flow. The kitchen includes modern appliances and ample counter space. Large windows provide natural light and water views, with direct access to the rear deck. The outdoor space includes a spacious deck with room for seating and dining, along with a gas grill setup. The dock provides convenient access for boating, kayaking, and other activities. The home includes three bedrooms and three bathrooms, offering flexible space for a variety of living arrangements. Additional features include well-maintained interiors and updated elements throughout. Conveniently located near local wineries, restaurants, and shops, with access to all that the North Fork has to offer.

Key facts

• 0.74 acre lot
• Pool
• Built 1990

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.45M. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($64k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $1.45M).
• Recommended offer: $1.36M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 6.9% in Southold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Southold Union Free School District (town): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #298 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $43k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $405k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.36M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $800k; list at $1.45M implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $1,358,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.73%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,066,938
• List price: $1,445,000
• Delta: 35.43%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6060 Main Bayview Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,694 (+6%)	12mo	$1,375,000	$812	66
50 Summit Dr	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,651 (+3%)	9mo	$783,000	$474	62
625 Glenn Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+1%)	5mo	$869,000	$540	60
155 Shepard Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,600 (0%)	7mo	$791,000	$494	57
5950 N Bayview Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,547 (-3%)	12mo	$1,375,000	$889	46
3680 Main Bayview Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,442 (-10%)	5mo	$590,000	$409	43
3715 Main Bayview Rd	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,400 (-12%)	23mo	$850,000	$607	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $103,958
• Equity at exit: $215,454

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $526,706
• Equity at exit: $124,937

Cash invested: $404,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11971

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $19,355 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,578
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,806 /mo · $21,675/yr
• Insurance: −$602
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,064
• Net cashflow: $5,304

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,641

Max offer price $1,445,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $361,250
• Closing costs: $43,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1355 Watersedge Way Southold, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$19,500	$16.25	24d	1	0.76mi
1854 N Bayview Rd Southold, NY	2.0	2.5	1750	$15,000	$8.57	43d	1	0.80mi
1265 Brigantine Dr Southold, NY	3.0	2.0	1750	$9,000	$5.14	43d	1	1.17mi
2662 Paradise Shores Rd Southold, NY	3.0	1.5	1300	$25,000	$19.23	24d	1	1.35mi
2845 Hobart Rd Southold, NY	3.0	2.0	1300	$22,000	$16.92	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,445,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,445,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,445,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,445,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,445,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $1,445,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,445,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,445,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,445,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,445,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,445,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,445,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,445,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,445,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-03-26
    listed $1,495,000 Active 1046-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1046 chars)

    Boaters Dream! Located in Southold, this 3-bedroom, 3-bathroom canal-front home on Cory Creek offers a well-designed layout and direct access to the water. The creek leads out to the bay, and the property features a deep-water dock suitable for a variety of boating needs. Inside, the home offers an open-concept living, dining, and kitchen area with a comfortable, functional flow. The kitchen includes modern appliances and ample counter space. Large windows provide natural light and water views, with direct access to the rear deck. The outdoor space includes a spacious deck with room for seating and dining, along with a gas grill setup. The dock provides convenient access for boating, kayaking, and other activities. The home includes three bedrooms and three bathrooms, offering flexible space for a variety of living arrangements. Additional features include well-maintained interiors and updated elements throughout. Conveniently located near local wineries, restaurants, and shops, with access to all that the North Fork has to offer.

16. 2020-12-01
    soldstatus $800,000 Closed 673-char remark

    Show marketing remark (673 chars)

    Attention Boaters!!! Destination Southold! Corey Creek! This is what you've been waiting for- canal front retreat with private deep water dockage for 2 boats, unobstructed bay access. This casual 2 story home offers updated kitchen, open floor plan with sliders that leads to a wraparound deck., private yard and dock. Primary bedroom with balcony, bath, plus 2 additional bedrooms. Have fun in the sun all year round. This is truly a boaters paradise. Beaches close by. Showings by scheduled appt time from 11:00 - 2: 00pm on weekends. Weekday showings with 24 hr notice., Additional information: Appearance:Very Good,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

17. 2020-09-29
    historical 673-char remark

    Show marketing remark (673 chars)

    Attention Boaters!!! Destination Southold! Corey Creek! This is what you've been waiting for- canal front retreat with private deep water dockage for 2 boats, unobstructed bay access. This casual 2 story home offers updated kitchen, open floor plan with sliders that leads to a wraparound deck., private yard and dock. Primary bedroom with balcony, bath, plus 2 additional bedrooms. Have fun in the sun all year round. This is truly a boaters paradise. Beaches close by. Showings by scheduled appt time from 11:00 - 2: 00pm on weekends. Weekday showings with 24 hr notice., Additional information: Appearance:Very Good,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

18. 2020-07-09
    listed $839,000 Active 673-char remark

    Show marketing remark (673 chars)

    Attention Boaters!!! Destination Southold! Corey Creek! This is what you've been waiting for- canal front retreat with private deep water dockage for 2 boats, unobstructed bay access. This casual 2 story home offers updated kitchen, open floor plan with sliders that leads to a wraparound deck., private yard and dock. Primary bedroom with balcony, bath, plus 2 additional bedrooms. Have fun in the sun all year round. This is truly a boaters paradise. Beaches close by. Showings by scheduled appt time from 11:00 - 2: 00pm on weekends. Weekday showings with 24 hr notice., Additional information: Appearance:Very Good,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $232,255
• − Mortgage interest: −$80,942
• − Property taxes: −$21,675
• − Insurance: −$7,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$18,580
• − Management: −$18,580
• − Depreciation: −$42,036
• Taxable income: $43,215
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$10,372
• After-tax cash flow: $53,277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This canal-front home in Southold, NY is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a prime location, modern amenities, and a well-maintained exterior. The property is move-in ready and would be a great investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping and trimming trees — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Deep cleaning and decluttering — Enhances overall impression and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping and trimming trees — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Deep cleaning and decluttering — Enhances overall impression and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southold Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627620
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $78,622
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2269
• State rank: #298 of 590 in NY

Livability — Southold

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #10545

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southold, NY
• City population: 6,507
• Population (ZIP): 6,507

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.14%
• Current HPI: 396.5481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+78.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $1,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-01 Sold (MLS) $800,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-29 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-09 Listed $839,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid