509 Don Ln · Itasca, TX 76055

$189,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,202 sqft · SingleFamily · 160 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 5,663 sqft lot $158/sqft · 9% below area Est $210k · 9% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21130003 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 1202 A1 - Yosemite The Yosemite Plan from our Freedom Series is a cozy and efficient single-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,202 square feet of smartly designed living space. This split-level floorplan places two secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom at the front of the home, offering privacy and convenience. Continue into the open-concept living area, where the kitchen with a central island overlooks the dining area and family room—perfect for meals, gatherings, and quality time. The primary suite is thoughtfully positioned off the family room for added privacy and includes a private bathroom and walk-in closet. The laundry room is also conveniently located on this side of the home for easy access.

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-592/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#832 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Itasca ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #636 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Itasca El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 295 students, 74% FRL); Itasca Middle (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 164 students, 62% FRL); Itasca H S (math 15% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,106 of 1,632 statewide, top 68%, 192 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $159,952 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,735
• List price: $189,990
• Delta: -9.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
604 S Aquilla St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,215 (+1%)	1mo	$245,000	$202	90
102 Allie Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-0%)	15mo	$235,000	$196	79
112 Grayson Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-4%)	7mo	$239,900	$208	74
301 S Lamar St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,220 (+2%)	5mo	$244,900	$201	74
126 Don Ln	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (-8%)	6mo	$195,000	$177	73
602 S Aquilla St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,086 (-10%)	4mo	$230,000	$212	72
122 Don Ln	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (-8%)	7mo	$195,000	$177	72
303 S Lamar	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,220 (+2%)	19mo	$269,999	$221	63
100 Allie Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,110 (-8%)	22mo	$215,000	$194	61
104 S College St	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,232 (+2%)	9mo	$99,999	$81	61
114 Don Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	15mo	$239,900	$174	58
103 Grayson Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,336 (+11%)	15mo	$245,000	$183	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $100,354
• Equity at exit: $171,158

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.60×
• Total profit: $298,046
• Equity at exit: $369,109

Cash invested: $53,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76055

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,662

Max offer price $182,848

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $82	-5% $16	+0% $-49	+5% $-115	+10% $-181
Rent	-10% $-176	-5% $-113	+0% $-49	+5% $14	+10% $77
Rate	-1.0pp $46	-0.5pp $-1	base $-49	+0.5pp $-99	+1.0pp $-149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,498
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
111 Minnie Dr Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,775	$1.42	45d	1	0.22mi
107 E Marrion St Unit 4 Itasca, TX	2.0	1.0	720	$875	$1.22	45d	1	0.34mi
202 E Henderson St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,750	$1.18	0d	1	0.41mi
108 E Adams St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,650	$1.39	45d	1	0.48mi
106 W Adams St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,650	$1.41	45d	1	0.56mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 810-char remark

   Show marketing remark (810 chars)

   MLS# 21130003 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 1202 A1 - Yosemite The Yosemite Plan from our Freedom Series is a cozy and efficient single-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,202 square feet of smartly designed living space. This split-level floorplan places two secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom at the front of the home, offering privacy and convenience. Continue into the open-concept living area, where the kitchen with a central island overlooks the dining area and family room—perfect for meals, gatherings, and quality time. The primary suite is thoughtfully positioned off the family room for added privacy and includes a private bathroom and walk-in closet. The laundry room is also conveniently located on this side of the home for easy access.

2. 2026-05-14
   price $189,990 810-char remark

   Show marketing remark (810 chars)

   MLS# 21130003 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 1202 A1 - Yosemite The Yosemite Plan from our Freedom Series is a cozy and efficient single-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,202 square feet of smartly designed living space. This split-level floorplan places two secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom at the front of the home, offering privacy and convenience. Continue into the open-concept living area, where the kitchen with a central island overlooks the dining area and family room—perfect for meals, gatherings, and quality time. The primary suite is thoughtfully positioned off the family room for added privacy and includes a private bathroom and walk-in closet. The laundry room is also conveniently located on this side of the home for easy access.

3. 2026-04-03
   price $203,990 810-char remark

   Show marketing remark (810 chars)

   MLS# 21130003 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 1202 A1 - Yosemite The Yosemite Plan from our Freedom Series is a cozy and efficient single-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,202 square feet of smartly designed living space. This split-level floorplan places two secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom at the front of the home, offering privacy and convenience. Continue into the open-concept living area, where the kitchen with a central island overlooks the dining area and family room—perfect for meals, gatherings, and quality time. The primary suite is thoughtfully positioned off the family room for added privacy and includes a private bathroom and walk-in closet. The laundry room is also conveniently located on this side of the home for easy access.

4. 2026-03-31
   price $199,990 810-char remark

   Show marketing remark (810 chars)

   MLS# 21130003 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 1202 A1 - Yosemite The Yosemite Plan from our Freedom Series is a cozy and efficient single-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,202 square feet of smartly designed living space. This split-level floorplan places two secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom at the front of the home, offering privacy and convenience. Continue into the open-concept living area, where the kitchen with a central island overlooks the dining area and family room—perfect for meals, gatherings, and quality time. The primary suite is thoughtfully positioned off the family room for added privacy and includes a private bathroom and walk-in closet. The laundry room is also conveniently located on this side of the home for easy access.

5. 2025-12-22
   price $199,988 810-char remark

   Show marketing remark (810 chars)

   MLS# 21130003 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 1202 A1 - Yosemite The Yosemite Plan from our Freedom Series is a cozy and efficient single-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,202 square feet of smartly designed living space. This split-level floorplan places two secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom at the front of the home, offering privacy and convenience. Continue into the open-concept living area, where the kitchen with a central island overlooks the dining area and family room—perfect for meals, gatherings, and quality time. The primary suite is thoughtfully positioned off the family room for added privacy and includes a private bathroom and walk-in closet. The laundry room is also conveniently located on this side of the home for easy access.

6. 2025-12-10
   listed $198,988 Active 810-char remark

   Show marketing remark (810 chars)

   MLS# 21130003 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 1202 A1 - Yosemite The Yosemite Plan from our Freedom Series is a cozy and efficient single-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,202 square feet of smartly designed living space. This split-level floorplan places two secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom at the front of the home, offering privacy and convenience. Continue into the open-concept living area, where the kitchen with a central island overlooks the dining area and family room—perfect for meals, gatherings, and quality time. The primary suite is thoughtfully positioned off the family room for added privacy and includes a private bathroom and walk-in closet. The laundry room is also conveniently located on this side of the home for easy access.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,194
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,642
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,846
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$923
• After-tax cash flow: $331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a modern kitchen, two bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. Upgrades in paint, landscaping, and smart home features can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Itasca ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824480
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,224
• Composite: 25.26/100
• National rank: #7499
• State rank: #636 of 826 in TX

Livability — Itasca

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #832
• US rank: #14977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Itasca, TX
• City population: 3,719
• Population (ZIP): 3,719

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.37%
• Current HPI: 264.5221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $189,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $203,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $199,990 NTREIS
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $199,988 NTREIS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $198,988 NTREIS