3305 15th Ave · Valley, AL 36854

$149,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,003 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1950 0.25 ac lot Est $154k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming 2BR/1BA home in Todd Addition is as cute as a button! Recently updated, it boasts fresh paint inside and out, new LVP flooring throughout, and a brand-new HVAC system with ductwork. The layout includes a living room, dining area, and a cozy kitchen with a gas stove, new vent hood, and refrigerator that stays. The primary bedroom is spacious and includes a convenient desk or office nook. The secondary bedroom is comfortably sized and features dual closets. The bathroom has been fully renovated with a new vanity, light fixture, shower insert, and toilet. Other upgrades include all-new light fixtures, wiring, and a water heater. Extra perks feature updated plumbing, spray foam in

Key facts

• New vent hood
• Gas stove
• Desk or office nook

Tags

• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• GAS STOVE
• NEW VENT HOOD
• REFRIGERATOR STAYS
• DESK OR OFFICE NOOK
• FULLY RENOVATED BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.25 acre; Public records used for area and lot information
• HOA & community: No HOA; No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pad / open parking
• Utilities: Public water available; Septic tank sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-family house; Resale property; Built in 1950; One story
• Construction: Composition roof; Other construction materials; 956 above-grade finished square feet
• Exterior features: City lot; Street lights in the community

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: One-level layout; Mud room; Crawl space basement; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in mud room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $125 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.9% in Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#96 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Chambers County (town): math 10% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #101 of 129 in AL (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bob Hardingshawmut Elementary (241 students, 45% FRL); W F Burns Middle School (math 7% / reading 37%, grade F, #182 of 257 statewide, top 71%, 528 students, 62% FRL); Valley High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #220 of 305 statewide, top 77%, 642 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 63% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 43 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,500 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.57%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $154,462
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1712 31st St	0.28mi	2/1.5	1,096 (+9%)	4mo	$160,000	$146	66
1814 30th St	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,028 (+2%)	8mo	$159,900	$156	66
3013 22nd Ave	0.58mi	2/2.0	985 (-2%)	11mo	$158,000	$160	56
3100 16th Ave	0.18mi	2/1.0	876 (-13%)	19mo	$135,000	$154	54
1607 32nd St	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,118 (+12%)	23mo	$75,000	$67	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-16,413
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,329
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36854

• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $210	-5% $167	+0% $125	+5% $82	+10% $40
Rent	-10% $22	-5% $74	+0% $125	+5% $176	+10% $227
Rate	-1.0pp $200	-0.5pp $163	base $125	+0.5pp $86	+1.0pp $46

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1905 28th St Valley, AL	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,295	$0.93	45d	1	0.75mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $149,900 Under Contract 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 New 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 New 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 New 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $149,900 New 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-02
   listed $149,900 New 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $598 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $615 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: +$17/yr (+$1/mo · 2.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,243
• − Management: −$1,243
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$1,051
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$252
• After-tax cash flow: $1,749/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chambers County
• NCES district ID: 0100600
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,011
• Composite: 19.37/100
• National rank: #8785
• State rank: #101 of 129 in AL

Livability — Valley

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #11347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 15,913

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,868 people
• By 2030: 33,504 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 32,594 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 31,422 · -7.2%
• By 2075: 29,054 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 25,431 · -24.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.2) · D 38.0% · R 61.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.8pp toward R · 2008: -8.5pp · 2024: -23.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.2 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+14.8 2012: R+5.1 2008: R+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -149.05%
• Current HPI: 186.0298
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $149,900 GAMLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $598 · -7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.