2609 Muirwood Way · Celina, TX 75009

$409,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 4,617 sqft lot 2-car garage $175/sqft · 15% below area Est $484k · 15% under $135/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Gorgeous, almost-new 2-story Highland Home on a desirable north-facing lot! This beautifully designed home features an open-concept floor plan with 4 spacious bedrooms, with two bedrooms downstairs and 2 bedrooms upstairs, 3 full bathrooms, tall ceilings, and a large upstairs loft or game room, perfect for entertaining or flexible living. The gourmet kitchen is a true centerpiece, featuring a farmhouse sink, large center island with striking black cabinet accents, and three stylish drop-light pendant fixtures, creating a modern and inviting space for cooking and gathering.

Key facts

• Large center island
• Gourmet kitchen
• Window seat

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• FARMHOUSE SINK
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• DINING ROOM
• WINDOW SEAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $410k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-27/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $410k (0.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $410k).
• Recommended offer: $404k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.9% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: O'Dell El (math 55% / reading 67%, grade B, #368 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 826 students, 15% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 3407 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 68d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($168k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($404k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $403,840 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $484,454
• List price: $409,990
• Delta: -15.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2628 Muirwood Way	0.04mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,338 (-0%)	4mo	$475,900	$204	87
1604 Victoria Pl	0.11mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,338 (-0%)	2mo	$474,900	$203	86
2736 Acadia Mews	0.16mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,338 (-0%)	3mo	$474,900	$203	82
1717 Palo Duro Way	0.12mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,338 (-0%)	7mo	$474,900	$203	81
1604 Palo Duro Way	0.16mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,338 (-0%)	10mo	$524,900	$225	77
2442 Plumeria Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,305 (-2%)	9mo	$525,000	$228	70
1629 Asbury Ln	0.18mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,579 (+10%)	1mo	$563,985	$219	69
2409 Plumeria Ln	0.27mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,593 (+11%)	9mo	$549,990	$212	57
2209 Ten Mile Creek Rd	0.61mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,447 (+4%)	6mo	$572,350	$234	54
2601 Hardwood Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,429 (+4%)	4mo	$490,000	$202	53
2619 Cedar Ridge Rd	0.57mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,671 (+14%)	1mo	$575,000	$215	44
2621 Hardwood Dr	0.69mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,050 (-12%)	2mo	$594,000	$290	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-78,689
• Equity at exit: $61,131

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-115,428
• Equity at exit: $35,448

Cash invested: $114,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 74 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 44.4 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $556,484 ($216/sqft)
• Median days on market: 245 d
• This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -4.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 3407
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,268 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax from tax record: −$918 /mo · $11,015/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$896
• Net cashflow: $-2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,271

Max offer price $409,596

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $230	-5% $114	+0% $-2	+5% $-118	+10% $-234
Rent	-10% $-339	-5% $-171	+0% $-2	+5% $166	+10% $335
Rate	-1.0pp $204	-0.5pp $102	base $-2	+0.5pp $-108	+1.0pp $-217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,498
• Closing costs: $12,300
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1637 Palo Duro Way Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$5,800	$2.28	21d	1	0.11mi
2437 Plumeria Ln Celina, TX	5.0	5.0	3257	$3,611	$1.11	92d	1	0.22mi
1149 Beautyberry Ln Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	1930	$2,595	$1.34	17d	1	1.08mi
1720 Yaupon Ct Celina, TX	4.0	5.0	3271	$3,450	$1.05	73d	1	1.09mi
2004 Huntersridge Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2815	$2,995	$1.06	34d	1	1.22mi
2600 Precocious Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	3316	$4,700	$1.42	7d	1	1.30mi
2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2386	$2,895	$1.21	68d	1	1.33mi
2522 Runhappy Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2395	$3,500	$1.46	92d	1	1.37mi
1513 Mill Creek Way Celina, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1385	$3,275	$2.36	3d	16	1.46mi
2432 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2309	$3,500	$1.52	92d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Parks At Wilson Creek Ph 1County: Collin
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan typeNo second mortgage
• HOA & community: Mandatory association with monthly feeHOA fee covers full use of facilitiesHOA fee: $135 monthlyHOA managed by Insight Association Management (214-494-6002)Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, fitness center, playground, tennis courts, jogging/bike paths, sidewalks, greenbelt, lake, and fishing

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage2 covered parking spacesGarage door openerGarage faces rear
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s)Fire alarm
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerNot in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residenceResidential propertyTwo-storyProperty attached: Yes
• Construction: Built in 2023Brick constructionComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Wood fencingLess than 0.5 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas cooktopMicrowavePlumbed for gas in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 (16 x 13)Bedroom on level 1 (12 x 10)Bedroom on level 2 (11 x 10)Bedroom on level 2 (13 x 10)
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tileLuxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Natural Gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite countersKitchen islandDecorative gas fireplace with gas logs and gas starterTwo living areasOne dining areaEight total roomsTwo levels
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heaterTankless water heater

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $409,990 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $409,990 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $409,990 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $409,990 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $409,990 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $409,990 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $409,990 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $409,990 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $409,990 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $409,990 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $409,990 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $409,990 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $409,990 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    pricedays on marketlisting id $409,990 Active 1 DOM
15. 2026-07-10
    days on market $439,900 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-07-09
    days on market $439,900 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-07-07
    days on market $439,900 Active 48 DOM
18. 2026-07-06
    days on market $439,900 Active 47 DOM
19. 2026-07-06
    days on market $439,900 Active 46 DOM
20. 2026-07-05
    days on market $439,900 Active 45 DOM
21. 2026-07-03
    days on market $439,900 Active 44 DOM
22. 2026-07-02
    days on market $439,900 Active 43 DOM
23. 2026-07-01
    days on market $439,900 Active 42 DOM
24. 2026-06-30
    days on market $439,900 Active 41 DOM
25. 2026-06-29
    days on market $439,900 Active 40 DOM
26. 2026-06-28
    days on market $439,900 Active 39 DOM
27. 2026-06-27
    days on market $439,900 Active 38 DOM
28. 2026-06-26
    days on market $439,900 Active 37 DOM
29. 2026-06-24
    days on market $439,900 Active 35 DOM
30. 2026-06-22
    days on market $439,900 Active 33 DOM
31. 2026-06-21
    days on market $439,900 Active 32 DOM
32. 2026-06-18
    price $439,900 Active 29 DOM
33. 2026-06-18
    days on market $459,000 Active 29 DOM
34. 2026-06-17
    days on market $459,000 Active 28 DOM
35. 2026-06-16
    days on market $459,000 Active 27 DOM
36. 2026-06-15
    days on market $459,000 Active 26 DOM
37. 2026-06-13
    days on market $459,000 Active 24 DOM
38. 2026-06-09
    days on market $459,000 Active 20 DOM
39. 2026-06-08
    days on market $459,000 Active 19 DOM
40. 2026-06-07
    days on market $459,000 Active 18 DOM
41. 2026-06-04
    days on market $459,000 Active 15 DOM
42. 2026-06-03
    days on market $459,000 Active 14 DOM
43. 2026-06-02
    days on market $459,000 Active 13 DOM
44. 2026-06-01
    days on market $459,000 Active 12 DOM
45. 2026-05-31
    days on market $459,000 Active 11 DOM
46. 2026-05-20
    listed $459,000 Active
47. 2025-09-07
    historical
48. 2025-07-09
    price $519,900
49. 2025-05-15
    price $540,000
50. 2025-04-04
    price $550,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $11,015 · $918/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,015 · $918/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,966
• − Property taxes: −$11,015
• − Insurance: −$2,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,097
• − Management: −$4,097
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$11,927
• Taxable loss: −$6,559
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,574
• After-tax cash flow: $1,547/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,720–$35,160 screening

This nearly-new Highland Home is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and home value ↑
• Rental Replace ceiling fans — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 59/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary O'dell El B TX #368/4,322 Nat'l #6,943/41,679 Middle Jerry & Linda Moore Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Celina H S C TX #320/1,632 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 25% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Parks At Wilson Creek Ph 1County: Collin
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan typeNo second mortgage
• HOA & community: Mandatory association with monthly feeHOA fee covers full use of facilitiesHOA fee: $135 monthlyHOA managed by Insight Association Management (214-494-6002)Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, fitness center, playground, tennis courts, jogging/bike paths, sidewalks, greenbelt, lake, and fishing

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage2 covered parking spacesGarage door openerGarage faces rear
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s)Fire alarm
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerNot in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residenceResidential propertyTwo-storyProperty attached: Yes
• Construction: Built in 2023Brick constructionComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Wood fencingLess than 0.5 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas cooktopMicrowavePlumbed for gas in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 (16 x 13)Bedroom on level 1 (12 x 10)Bedroom on level 2 (11 x 10)Bedroom on level 2 (13 x 10)
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tileLuxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Natural Gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite countersKitchen islandDecorative gas fireplace with gas logs and gas starterTwo living areasOne dining areaEight total roomsTwo levels
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heaterTankless water heater

Price history

-24.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-20 Listed $409,990 NTREIS
• 2026-07-10 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $439,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-20 Listed $459,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $519,900 NTREIS
• 2025-05-15 Price Changed $540,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $550,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-07 Listed $555,000 NTREIS
• 2024-02-29 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-01-16 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-12-15 Price Changed $559,990 NTREIS
• 2023-09-20 Price Changed $549,990 NTREIS
• 2023-09-01 Price Changed $554,323 NTREIS
• 2023-07-18 Listed $543,890 NTREIS

Property tax history

+161.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,015 · +36.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.