56 Fourth Dr · Haviland, NY 12738

$175,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured · 47 Days on market

Built 1994 Est $128k · 37% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 56 Fourth Drive, nestled in the desirable Kensington Village Community of Hyde Park! This charming ranch-style mobile home offers comfortable, easy living with a spacious and functional layout. Step inside to find two generously sized bedrooms, each featuring large closets for ample storage. The primary suite includes a private full bath complete with a relaxing garden tub and shower, as well as a double-sink vanity. The second bedroom also offers a large closet and its own full bath—perfect for guests . The bright and spacious kitchen includes a dedicated dining area and sliding glass doors that lead to a sunny enclosed porch, creating the perfect spot to enjoy your mornin

Key facts

• Double-sink vanity
• Backyard and patio
• Sunny enclosed porch

Tags

• PRIVATE FULL BATH
• GARDEN TUB
• DOUBLE-SINK VANITY
• SUNNY ENCLOSED PORCH
• BACKYARD AND PATIO
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly lot rent of $580

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Total parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Septic tank; Propane service
• Home design: Manufactured home / Mobile home; Measured living area of 1,040
• Construction: Mobile/manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch areas; Deck; Patio; Porch; Storage shed(s); Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Eat-in, open kitchen
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Chandelier; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Soaking tub; Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included (washer, dryer listed); Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $367 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.2% in Haviland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#712 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hyde Park Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #316 of 590 in NY (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ralph R Smith School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,786 of 2,108 statewide, top 86%, 340 students, 54% FRL); Haviland Middle School (math 23% / reading 57%, grade F, #413 of 729 statewide, top 57%, 759 students, 59% FRL); Franklin D Roosevelt Senior High School (math 93% / reading 90%, grade A+, #197 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 1,136 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 34% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $169,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.99%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $127,920
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
74 Hidden Brook Dr	0.38mi	2/1.0	1,056 (+2%)	2mo	$145,000	$137	74
14 Perry Rd #14	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+2%)	9mo	$130,000	$123	69
52 Liberty Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+2%)	17mo	$156,000	$148	63
17 Leisure Ln	0.35mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-4%)	17mo	$110,000	$110	59
1040 lot #25 Violet Ave #25	0.50mi	2/1.0	980 (-6%)	15mo	$59,999	$61	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $44,483
• Equity at exit: $78,688

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $125,669
• Equity at exit: $121,267

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12738

• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,995 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $367

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21 Van Dam Rd Hyde Park, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$1,500	$2.00	23d	1	0.89mi
81 Kerry Ct Hyde Park, NY	2.0	1.5	1300	$2,175	$1.67	43d	1	1.04mi
51 Horseshoe Dr Hyde Park, NY	2.0	1.0	1277	$2,600	$2.04	23d	1	1.18mi
9 Parker Ave Hyde Park, NY	1.0	1.0	825	$1,750	$2.12	43d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-04
   listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,944
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,916
• − Management: −$1,916
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $1,720
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$413
• After-tax cash flow: $3,991/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hyde Park Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615180
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $68,932
• Composite: 46.59/100
• National rank: #2421
• State rank: #316 of 590 in NY

Livability — Haviland

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #712
• US rank: #13550

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haviland, NY
• Population (ZIP): 444

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 17%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Listed $175,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid