407 First St · Doniphan, MO 63935

$78,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,346 sqft · Other public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1930 6,969 sqft lot $59/sqft · 29% below area Est $110k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-kept, cozy 2-3 bedroom home in a quiet location, close to downtown. It features a large fenced backyard, a detached carport, and a shed. The family room could serve as a third bedroom.

Key facts

• Detached carport
• Large shed
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• DETACHED CARPORT
• LARGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $72k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 2.6% in Doniphan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#568 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Doniphan R-I (rural): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #254 of 324 in MO (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($545 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• Ripley County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $71,799 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.15%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,498
• List price: $78,900
• Delta: -28.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $43,588
• Equity at exit: $45,382

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.98×
• Total profit: $109,987
• Equity at exit: $78,884

Cash invested: $22,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63935

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,085 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $256/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $592

Max offer price $78,900

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,725
• Closing costs: $2,367
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $78,900 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $78,900 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $78,900 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $78,900 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $78,900 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $78,900 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,900 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,900 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-04-03
    status Active 189-char remark

    Show marketing remark (189 chars)

    Well-kept, cozy 2-3 bedroom home in a quiet location, close to downtown. It features a large fenced backyard, a detached carport, and a shed. The family room could serve as a third bedroom.

16. 2026-03-30
    historical Active Under Contract 189-char remark

    Show marketing remark (189 chars)

    Well-kept, cozy 2-3 bedroom home in a quiet location, close to downtown. It features a large fenced backyard, a detached carport, and a shed. The family room could serve as a third bedroom.

17. 2026-03-09
    listed $89,900 Active 189-char remark

    Show marketing remark (189 chars)

    Well-kept, cozy 2-3 bedroom home in a quiet location, close to downtown. It features a large fenced backyard, a detached carport, and a shed. The family room could serve as a third bedroom.

18. 2025-10-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $256 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $765 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: +$510/yr (+$42/mo · 199.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,023
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,420
• − Property taxes: −$256
• − Insurance: −$394
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,042
• − Management: −$1,042
• − Depreciation: −$2,295
• Taxable income: $3,575
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$858
• After-tax cash flow: $3,815/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Doniphan R-I
• NCES district ID: 2910920
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $31,818
• Composite: 26.91/100
• National rank: #7085
• State rank: #254 of 324 in MO

Livability — Doniphan

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #568
• US rank: #20561

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Doniphan, MO
• Population (ZIP): 8,017

Population outlook (Ripley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,011 people
• By 2030: 12,515 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 11,512 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 10,427 · -19.9%
• By 2075: 7,833 · -39.8%
• By 2100: 5,692 · -56.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Ripley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.0) · D 13.2% · R 86.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.0pp toward R · 2008: -30.1pp · 2024: -73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.0 2020: R+70.1 2016: R+66.9 2012: R+44.6 2008: R+30.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.14%
• Current HPI: 122.3339
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Listed $89,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $256 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.