1207 N Jefferson Ave · Springfield, MO 65802

$101,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1907

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

House sold as is. It needs work. Great location near Drury, Central High School, and Midtown Library.

Key facts

• Built 1907
• Listed 6 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1907
• Construction: Living area approximately 2,248 square feet
• Exterior features: Located in the Midtown subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $101k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $802 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $101k).
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 4.6% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Springfield R-XII (urban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #174 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 513 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $698 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.04%
• DSCR: 2.51
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,808
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1328 N Benton Ave	0.19mi	4/1.5	2,314 (+3%)	6mo	$219,000	$95	81
1220 N Robberson Ave	0.06mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,084 (-7%)	1mo	$145,000	$70	77
525 E Calhoun St	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,403 (+7%)	19mo	$319,900	$133	60
730 W Scott St	0.56mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,436 (+8%)	2mo	$155,000	$64	54
827 W Webster St	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,280 (+1%)	11mo	$179,900	$79	53
508 W Division St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,400 (+7%)	9mo	$165,000	$69	52
1441 N Summit Ave	0.40mi	4/1.5	2,056 (-8%)	20mo	$199,000	$97	50
632 W Nichols St	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,920 (-15%)	6mo	$209,900	$109	47
1400 N Summit Ave	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,090 (-7%)	24mo	$245,000	$117	44
901 W Nichols St	0.67mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,286 (+2%)	14mo	$219,900	$96	43
926 N Missouri Ave	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,936 (-14%)	15mo	$179,900	$93	32
804 W Calhoun St	0.56mi	4/2.5	1,916 (-15%)	19mo	$195,000	$102	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $38,124
• Equity at exit: $15,059

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.01×
• Total profit: $113,459
• Equity at exit: $8,733

Cash invested: $28,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65802

• Home prices YoY: -31.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 513
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,826 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$530
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $827/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $802

Break-even live

Break-even rent $811

Max offer price $101,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $859	-5% $831	+0% $802	+5% $774	+10% $745
Rent	-10% $658	-5% $730	+0% $802	+5% $874	+10% $946
Rate	-1.0pp $853	-0.5pp $828	base $802	+0.5pp $776	+1.0pp $749

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,250
• Closing costs: $3,030
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
501 W Central St Springfield, MO	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,200	$1.10	24d	1	0.34mi
1439 N Texas Ave Springfield, MO	4.0	2.0	1608	$1,195	$0.74	45d	1	0.63mi
1442 N Texas Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1626	$1,400	$0.86	45d	1	0.66mi
235 N Market Ave Springfield, MO	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1350	$1,500	$1.11	24d	5	0.85mi
235 N Market Ave Springfield, MO	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1350	$1,500	$1.11	15d	4	0.85mi
520 W Olive St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,538	$1.06	15d	5	0.85mi
211 S Market Ave Springfield, MO	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1442	$2,300	$1.59	22d	5	0.93mi
211 S Market Ave Springfield, MO	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1442	$2,300	$1.59	24d	5	0.93mi
916 N Pickwick Ave Springfield, MO	4.0	3.0	1827	$1,700	$0.93	15d	1	1.18mi
1112 E Walnut St Apt 2 Springfield, MO	4.0	2.0	2240	$2,450	$1.09	45d	1	1.21mi
630 S Market Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1758	$2,150	$1.22	45d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $101,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $101,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $101,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $101,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 101-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $101,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $827 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $980 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$153/yr (+$13/mo · 18.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,916
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,658
• − Property taxes: −$827
• − Insurance: −$505
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,753
• − Management: −$1,753
• − Depreciation: −$2,938
• Taxable income: $8,482
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,036
• After-tax cash flow: $7,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield R-XII
• NCES district ID: 2928860
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,886
• Composite: 32.45/100
• National rank: #5717
• State rank: #174 of 324 in MO

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #4121

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, MO
• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 223,044
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 46,739
• Household income: $55,019
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1818.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.72%
• Current HPI: 212.9826
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.82%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $101,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $827 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.