3156 River Falls Ct NW · Rochester, MN 55901

$275,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,620 sqft · Townhouse public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2003 1,829 sqft lot $240/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Immediate possession on this end unit townhome. No neighbors to rear of unit. All new carpet and paint. Finished walk-out basement with 3/4 bath could also be used as a 3rd bedroom. Furnace just serviced. Has current rental license.

Key facts

• $240 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2003

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: River Falls Townhomes Homeowners Association; Monthly HOA fee of $240; HOA covers hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, professional management, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car, concrete)
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas; Circuit breaker electrical service
• Home design: Residential attached property (townhome); Two levels; Walkout basement; Asphalt roof
• Construction: Block foundation; 600 sq ft foundation area
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Vinyl exterior; City street frontage on a dead-end/no outlet road; Paved streets

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with center island and window; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the upper level)
• Bathrooms: Full bathroom on the upper level; Three-quarter bathroom in the basement (walkout); Half bathroom on the main floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Natural woodwork; Panoramic view; Water softener (owned); Main floor laundry
• Laundry & utility: Dryer; Main floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-112 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.5% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 92/100 on livability (#1 in MN, #27 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+.
• Rochester Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #152 of 301 in MN (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sunset Terrace Elementary (math 38% / reading 41%, grade F, #604 of 857 statewide, top 74%, 467 students, 56% FRL); John Adams Middle (math 20% / reading 42%, grade F, #191 of 258 statewide, top 74%, 731 students, 42% FRL); John Marshall Senior High (math 37% / reading 58%, grade D, #162 of 471 statewide, top 35%, 1,573 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 31% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 507 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,267 units permitted in Olmsted County in 2024 (915 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Olmsted County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask is 21% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $224k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $248,056 (9.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.75%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-53,587
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-63,468
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55901

• Home prices YoY: -33.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 507
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,481 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$240
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $-112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,622

Max offer price $255,202

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $44	-5% $-34	+0% $-112	+5% $-190	+10% $-268
Rent	-10% $-308	-5% $-210	+0% $-112	+5% $-14	+10% $84
Rate	-1.0pp $26	-0.5pp $-42	base $-112	+0.5pp $-183	+1.0pp $-256

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2257 Jordyn Rd NW Rochester, MN	3.0	2.0	1715	$3,440	$2.01	45d	1	0.59mi
3955 Superior Dr NW Rochester, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	918	$2,819	$3.07	15d	141	0.66mi
2127 Preserve Dr NW Rochester, MN	3.0	2.5	2136	$3,675	$1.72	45d	1	0.67mi
4275 Heritage Pl NW Rochester, MN	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2067	$3,143	$1.52	15d	9	0.72mi
1990 Ashland Dr NW Rochester, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,410	$1.53	15d	3	0.76mi
4871 Pines View Pl NW Rochester, MN	2.0	1.0–2.5	948	$2,724	$2.87	15d	53	0.84mi
3639 41st St NW Rochester, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,875	$1.87	15d	6	0.96mi
3345 41st St NW Rochester, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	760	$1,915	$2.52	15d	8	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $240 · $2,880/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $275,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $275,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $275,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $275,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    status $275,000 Active 1 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    remarks 695-char remark
15. 2026-06-03
    listed $275,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,300 · $275/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,300 · $275/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,767
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,381
• − Management: −$2,381
• − HOA: −$2,880
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$5,955
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,429
• After-tax cash flow: $84/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2731800
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,540
• Composite: 40.6/100
• National rank: #3695
• State rank: #152 of 301 in MN

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 92/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #27

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, MN
• County: Olmsted County · 135,035 people
• City population: 135,035
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• Population (ZIP): 58,495
• Household income: $94,607
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1651.0

Population outlook (Olmsted County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,999 people
• By 2030: 172,425 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 183,785 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 192,981 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 215,284 · +29.7%
• By 2100: 224,887 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 12% Asian 8% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Romanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Olmsted

• 2024 margin: D (+10.7) · D 54.3% · R 43.6% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 3.3pp · 2024: 10.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.7 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+0.8 2012: D+3.2 2008: D+3.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.08%
• Current HPI: 253.7999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.18%
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+98.0% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Coming Soon $275,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $223,500 Public Records
• 2022-07-25 Sold (MLS) $223,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-27 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-24 Listed $227,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-18 Coming Soon $227,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-10 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-10 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-22 Sold (MLS) $137,500 LSAR
• 2014-08-22 Sold (MLS) $137,500 RASM
• 2014-08-22 Sold (MLS) $137,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-22 Sold (MLS) $137,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-24 Listed $142,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-24 Listed $142,900 LSAR
• 2014-06-24 Listed $142,900 RASM
• 2014-06-24 Listed $142,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-08-12 Listed $142,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-08-12 Listed $142,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $103,100 Public Records
• 2010-04-29 Sold (MLS) $103,100 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-29 Sold (MLS) $103,100 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-08-13 Listed $115,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-08-13 Listed $115,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $146,500 Public Records
• 2007-10-01 Sold (MLS) $146,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-02 Listed $149,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $148,000 Public Records
• 2004-05-20 Sold (MLS) $148,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-05-05 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-12 Listed $148,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $138,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,300 · +30.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.