9227 Hidden Lk E · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$252,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,650 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 2004 7,570 sqft lot $153/sqft · 10% below area Est $281k · 10% under $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well maintained one-story home on a corner lot! Step inside where natural light accentuates the high ceilings and open floorplan. The expansive kitchen features a bright breakfast area, ample counter space, stainless appliances and a 5 burner gas oven! The spacious living and dining area accommodate both daily living and entertaining. With three spacious bedrooms and two baths including the primary suite with separate shower, soaking tub, dual sinks and impressive walk-in closet. Outside, sip your morning coffee on the stylish wooden deck and enjoy the well manicured lawn. No rear Neighbors. Fully fenced backyard with front and back sprinkler system! Two car attached garage, 2025 A/C and more! This home is the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Located minutes to The Woodlands, SH2 249, and The Grand Parkway. Do not miss this one!

Key facts

• Expansive kitchen
• Stainless appliances
• 5 burner gas oven

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• EXPANSIVE KITCHEN
• BRIGHT BREAKFAST AREA
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• 5 BURNER GAS OVEN
• STYLISH WOODEN DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $252k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-161 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (11.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,711 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.74%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,914
• List price: $252,000
• Delta: -10.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9218 E Lakeside Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,563 (-5%)	2mo	$259,500	$166	75
9206 Hidden Lk E	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,814 (+10%)	3mo	$275,000	$152	74
9115 E Lakeside Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,694 (+3%)	11mo	$305,000	$180	73
28831 Hidden Cove Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,705 (+3%)	2mo	$280,000	$164	73
9214 Hidden Ct	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,687 (+2%)	11mo	$265,000	$157	69
28730 Hidden Cove Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,783 (+8%)	21mo	$305,000	$171	54
28906 Champion Oaks Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,483 (-10%)	10mo	$215,000	$145	52
9314 E Lakeside Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,867 (+13%)	13mo	$275,000	$147	52
28631 Hidden Cove Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,825 (+11%)	23mo	$290,000	$159	50
28910 Champion Oaks Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,850 (+12%)	15mo	$374,900	$203	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $121,624
• Equity at exit: $227,022

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.05×
• Total profit: $356,556
• Equity at exit: $489,581

Cash invested: $70,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,057 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,322
• Tax from tax record: −$325 /mo · $3,900/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,261

Max offer price $223,492

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,000
• Closing costs: $7,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 3228 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,328	$1.48	2d	1	1.07mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 2162 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1177	$1,883	$1.60	5d	1	1.07mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 2228 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1177	$1,875	$1.59	2d	1	1.07mi
30006 Farm to Market Road 2978 Magnolia, TX	2.0	1.0	1088	$1,766	$1.62	43d	1	1.18mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 2047 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1177	$1,918	$1.63	11d	1	1.21mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 3047 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,371	$1.50	11d	1	1.21mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 30017 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1177	$1,907	$1.62	10d	1	1.23mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 30013 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,360	$1.50	10d	1	1.23mi
9829 Glen Brook Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1637	$1,999	$1.22	2d	1	1.24mi
30000 FM 2978 Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1175	$1,767	$1.50	3d	49	1.25mi
9733 Grosbeak Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,798	$1.38	43d	1	1.29mi
260 Gallant Front Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,975	$1.40	24d	1	1.37mi
260 Gallant Front Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,000	$1.42	43d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $252,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $252,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,900 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,900 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,900 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,900 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,900 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,900 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $259,900 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $259,900 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,900 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,900 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,900 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-04-16
    price $259,900 866-char remark

    Show marketing remark (866 chars)

    Welcome to this well maintained one-story home on a corner lot! Step inside where natural light accentuates the high ceilings and open floorplan. The expansive kitchen features a bright breakfast area, ample counter space, stainless appliances and a 5 burner gas oven! The spacious living and dining area accommodate both daily living and entertaining. With three spacious bedrooms and two baths including the primary suite with separate shower, soaking tub, dual sinks and impressive walk-in closet. Outside, sip your morning coffee on the stylish wooden deck and enjoy the well manicured lawn. No rear Neighbors. Fully fenced backyard with front and back sprinkler system! Two car attached garage, 2025 A/C and more! This home is the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Located minutes to The Woodlands, SH2 249, and The Grand Parkway. Do not miss this one!

16. 2026-03-03
    listed $269,000 Active 866-char remark

    Show marketing remark (866 chars)

    Welcome to this well maintained one-story home on a corner lot! Step inside where natural light accentuates the high ceilings and open floorplan. The expansive kitchen features a bright breakfast area, ample counter space, stainless appliances and a 5 burner gas oven! The spacious living and dining area accommodate both daily living and entertaining. With three spacious bedrooms and two baths including the primary suite with separate shower, soaking tub, dual sinks and impressive walk-in closet. Outside, sip your morning coffee on the stylish wooden deck and enjoy the well manicured lawn. No rear Neighbors. Fully fenced backyard with front and back sprinkler system! Two car attached garage, 2025 A/C and more! This home is the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Located minutes to The Woodlands, SH2 249, and The Grand Parkway. Do not miss this one!

17. 2026-03-03
    historical

    Show marketing remark (866 chars)

    Welcome to this well maintained one-story home on a corner lot! Step inside where natural light accentuates the high ceilings and open floorplan. The expansive kitchen features a bright breakfast area, ample counter space, stainless appliances and a 5 burner gas oven! The spacious living and dining area accommodate both daily living and entertaining. With three spacious bedrooms and two baths including the primary suite with separate shower, soaking tub, dual sinks and impressive walk-in closet. Outside, sip your morning coffee on the stylish wooden deck and enjoy the well manicured lawn. No rear Neighbors. Fully fenced backyard with front and back sprinkler system! Two car attached garage, 2025 A/C and more! This home is the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Located minutes to The Woodlands, SH2 249, and The Grand Parkway. Do not miss this one!

18. 2025-10-08
    listed $279,000 Active
19. 2016-07-06
    soldstatus
20. 2016-07-05
    soldstatus Sold
21. 2016-05-20
    status Pending
22. 2016-05-10
    status Option Pending
23. 2016-05-06
    listed $174,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,900 · $325/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,612 · $384/mo
• Expected delta: +$712/yr (+$59/mo · 18.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,685
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,116
• − Property taxes: −$3,900
• − Insurance: −$1,260
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,975
• − Management: −$1,975
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$7,331
• Taxable loss: −$6,291
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,510
• After-tax cash flow: $-427/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+49.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $259,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2016-07-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-07-05 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-05-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-05-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-05-06 Listed $174,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,900 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.