204 N Grove Ave · Highland Springs, VA 23075

$235,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,081 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1959 $217/sqft · at area comps Est $245k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Take a look at this 3-bedroom 1.5-bathroom house with a new roof, new laminated floors, new kitchen cabinets and countertops, fresh paint inside and out. Clean fenced backyard to enjoy family cookouts and much more.

Key facts

• Built 1959
• Listed 28 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-85 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (25.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#196 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $104k; list at $235k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,504 (25.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.56%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,975
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -4.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 N Grove Ave	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,081 (0%)	0mo	$215,000	$199	98
213 N Elm Ave	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,076 (-0%)	2mo	$261,000	$243	93
215 N Kalmia Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,084 (+0%)	0mo	$180,700	$167	88
10 W Washington St	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,120 (+4%)	2mo	$249,950	$223	85
115 N Elm Ave	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,024 (-5%)	2mo	$265,000	$259	82
133 N Grove	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,178 (+9%)	1mo	$289,000	$245	79
118 N Linden Ave	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,040 (-4%)	2mo	$266,400	$256	76
127 N Cedar Ave	0.18mi	3/1.0	960 (-11%)	1mo	$265,000	$276	72
125 N Ash Ave	0.28mi	3/1.0	955 (-12%)	1mo	$255,000	$267	67
16 N Juniper Ave	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (-9%)	1mo	$241,000	$246	64
110 N Kalmia Ave	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,236 (+14%)	1mo	$200,000	$162	57
508 E Read St	0.62mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (+7%)	1mo	$225,000	$195	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-43,596
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-45,265
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23075

• Home prices YoY: -13.6%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,745 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,605/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $-85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,853

Max offer price $219,901

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $48	-5% $-19	+0% $-85	+5% $-152	+10% $-219
Rent	-10% $-223	-5% $-154	+0% $-85	+5% $-17	+10% $52
Rate	-1.0pp $33	-0.5pp $-26	base $-85	+0.5pp $-146	+1.0pp $-208

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
132 N Elm Ave Henrico, VA	3.0	1.0	840	$1,629	$1.94	44d	1	0.13mi
117 N Ivy Ave Henrico, VA	3.0	1.0	980	$1,590	$1.62	4d	1	0.17mi
118 N Linden Ave Henrico, VA	3.0	1.5	1080	$1,795	$1.66	44d	1	0.30mi
205 Bridge St Henrico, VA	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,850	$1.49	11d	1	0.31mi
239 N Mapleleaf Ave Henrico, VA	3.0	1.0	980	$1,750	$1.79	24d	1	0.38mi
901 E 9 Mile Rd Unit a Highland Springs, VA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,312	$1.64	22d	1	0.68mi
1005 W Nine Mile Rd Unit J Henrico, VA	2.0	1.0	783	$1,395	$1.78	24d	1	0.68mi
1005 W Nine Mile Rd Henrico, VA	2.0	1.0	783	$1,345	$1.72	44d	1	0.69mi
1000 E Washington St Henrico, VA	2.0	1.0	888	$2,000	$2.25	4d	1	0.70mi
120 Barker Ave Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,597	$1.50	4d	1	1.08mi
5951 Tiger Lily Ln Richmond, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1080	$1,592	$1.47	2d	12	1.11mi
339 E Jerald St Henrico, VA	3.0	1.5	1160	$1,950	$1.68	44d	1	1.12mi
419 Roxana Rd Henrico, VA	3.0	1.5	1085	$2,050	$1.89	4d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 215-char remark

   Show marketing remark (215 chars)

   Take a look at this 3-bedroom 1.5-bathroom house with a new roof, new laminated floors, new kitchen cabinets and countertops, fresh paint inside and out. Clean fenced backyard to enjoy family cookouts and much more.

2. 2026-05-07
   price $235,000 215-char remark

   Show marketing remark (215 chars)

   Take a look at this 3-bedroom 1.5-bathroom house with a new roof, new laminated floors, new kitchen cabinets and countertops, fresh paint inside and out. Clean fenced backyard to enjoy family cookouts and much more.

3. 2026-04-26
   status Active 215-char remark

   Show marketing remark (215 chars)

   Take a look at this 3-bedroom 1.5-bathroom house with a new roof, new laminated floors, new kitchen cabinets and countertops, fresh paint inside and out. Clean fenced backyard to enjoy family cookouts and much more.

4. 2026-04-19
   status Pending 215-char remark

   Show marketing remark (215 chars)

   Take a look at this 3-bedroom 1.5-bathroom house with a new roof, new laminated floors, new kitchen cabinets and countertops, fresh paint inside and out. Clean fenced backyard to enjoy family cookouts and much more.

5. 2026-04-07
   listed $242,000 Active 215-char remark

   Show marketing remark (215 chars)

   Take a look at this 3-bedroom 1.5-bathroom house with a new roof, new laminated floors, new kitchen cabinets and countertops, fresh paint inside and out. Clean fenced backyard to enjoy family cookouts and much more.

6. 2013-12-04
   historical
7. 2013-10-02
   listed $94,500
8. 2010-12-03
   historical
9. 2010-09-03
   listed $119,950
10. 2010-05-10
    historical
11. 2010-02-28
    listed $127,000
12. 2010-02-23
    historical
13. 2010-02-23
    historical
14. 2009-12-27
    listed $124,950
15. 2009-12-27
    listed $124,950
16. 2006-01-30
    soldstatus $104,100
17. 2006-01-30
    soldstatus $104,100
18. 2006-01-27
    soldstatus $104,100
19. 2006-01-27
    soldstatus $104,100
20. 2005-09-22
    listed $112,950
21. 2005-09-22
    listed $112,950
22. 1995-11-01
    soldstatus $58,000
23. 1990-04-01
    soldstatus $51,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,605 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,927 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$322/yr (+$27/mo · 20.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,605
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,675
• − Management: −$1,675
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$5,190
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,246
• After-tax cash flow: $220/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henrico County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101890
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $61,854
• Composite: 49.25/100
• National rank: #2031
• State rank: #68 of 131 in VA

Livability — Highland Springs

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #6085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Highland Springs, VA
• County: Henrico County · 334,490 people
• City population: 8,347
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 8,347
• Household income: $55,567
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 283.0

Population outlook (Henrico County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,885 people
• By 2030: 384,255 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 416,688 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 442,376 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 488,037 · +33.4%
• By 2100: 487,430 · +33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 29% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henrico

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.9) · D 63.7% · R 34.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.9 2020: D+29.0 2016: D+21.0 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.15%
• Current HPI: 458.732
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+360.8% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $235,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-26 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-19 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $242,000 CVRMLS
• 2013-12-04 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2013-10-02 Listed $94,500 CVRMLS
• 2010-12-03 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2010-09-03 Listed $119,950 CVRMLS
• 2010-05-10 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2010-02-28 Listed $127,000 CVRMLS
• 2010-02-23 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2010-02-23 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2009-12-27 Listed $124,950 CVRMLS
• 2009-12-27 Listed $124,950 CVRMLS
• 2006-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $104,100 Public Records
• 2006-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $104,100 Public Records
• 2006-01-27 Sold (MLS) $104,100 CVRMLS
• 2006-01-27 Sold (MLS) $104,100 CVRMLS
• 2005-09-22 Listed $112,950 CVRMLS
• 2005-09-22 Listed $112,950 CVRMLS
• 1995-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 1990-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,605 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.