1609 Shell Cp · Gladewater, TX 75647

$145,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1950 9,583 sqft lot $126/sqft · 5% above area Est $134k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +3.4/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home with 1,120 sq/ft of living space. Enjoy a spacious eat-in kitchen with plenty of cabinetry and a classic Chamber Buttercup gas stove. The kitchen and hallway feature beautiful knotty pine plank walls that add warmth and character throughout the home. The inviting living room offers a comfortable space to relax, while the outdoor patio complete with a fire pit and sink is perfect for entertaining and cookouts.

Key facts

• Fire pit
• Eat-in kitchen
• Outdoor patio

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• CHAMBER BUTTERCUP GAS STOVE
• KNOTTY PINE PLANK WALLS
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• FIRE PIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $146k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $577 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $146k).
• Recommended offer: $137k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 4.9% in Gladewater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#805 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Gladewater ISD (suburban): math 29% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #594 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 178 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 193 units permitted in Gregg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,146 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.96%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $133,643
• List price: $145,900
• Delta: 9.17%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $13,135
• Equity at exit: $21,754

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $58,799
• Equity at exit: $12,615

Cash invested: $40,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75647

• Home prices YoY: -8.2%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$765
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,646/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $577

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,219

Max offer price $145,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $660	-5% $619	+0% $577	+5% $536	+10% $495
Rent	-10% $423	-5% $500	+0% $577	+5% $654	+10% $731
Rate	-1.0pp $651	-0.5pp $615	base $577	+0.5pp $540	+1.0pp $501

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,475
• Closing costs: $4,377
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 Lyle St Gladewater, TX	3.0	2.0	1385	$1,950	$1.41	14d	1	1.19mi
502 Jeanette Ave Gladewater, TX	3.0	2.0	1385	$1,950	$1.41	14d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-24
   listed $145,900 Active 444-char remark

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home with 1,120 sq/ft of living space. Enjoy a spacious eat-in kitchen with plenty of cabinetry and a classic Chamber Buttercup gas stove. The kitchen and hallway feature beautiful knotty pine plank walls that add warmth and character throughout the home. The inviting living room offers a comfortable space to relax, while the outdoor patio complete with a fire pit and sink is perfect for entertaining and cookouts.

2. 2008-08-28
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,646 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,670 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,024/yr (+$85/mo · 62.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 53% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,173
• − Property taxes: −$1,646
• − Insurance: −$730
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,872
• − Management: −$1,872
• − Depreciation: −$4,244
• Taxable income: $4,863
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,167
• After-tax cash flow: $5,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gladewater ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820760
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,485
• Composite: 26.62/100
• National rank: #7177
• State rank: #594 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gladewater

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #805
• US rank: #14670

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gladewater, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,457

Population outlook (Gregg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 125,947 people
• By 2030: 126,542 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 127,311 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 127,289 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 124,954 · -0.8%
• By 2100: 113,737 · -9.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Gregg

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.2) · D 28.5% · R 70.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.6pp toward R · 2008: -37.6pp · 2024: -42.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.2 2020: R+36.9 2016: R+41.3 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+37.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.12%
• Current HPI: 303.1316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Listed $145,900 LAAR
• 2008-08-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,646 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.