510 Riley · Seguin, TX 78155

$164,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 140 Days on market

Built 1984 0.25 ac lot $140/sqft · 17% below area Est $199k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This lovely home is a 4 bedroom, and 2 bathrooms with central A/C. Seller is offering Seller Finance terms.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1984
• Listed 140 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $164k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $153 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (2.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1342 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $164k implies a 648% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.98%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $199,165
• List price: $164,500
• Delta: -17.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
530 E Weinert St	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,123 (-4%)	5mo	$205,000	$183	68
402 Michna	0.30mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-8%)	6mo	$110,000	$102	58
411 Bismark	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,228 (+4%)	6mo	$160,000	$130	58
1316 N Olive	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,304 (+11%)	2mo	$189,500	$145	54
127 Roosevelt Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,024 (-13%)	1mo	$234,000	$229	54
1615 N Guadalupe	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,289 (+10%)	2mo	$294,500	$228	53
2311 N Camp Ave	0.61mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,100 (-6%)	4mo	$189,000	$172	50
904 Bismark St	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,068 (-9%)	4mo	$110,000	$103	49
1055 E Pine St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,071 (-9%)	8mo	$210,000	$196	45
622 Cedar	0.42mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,320 (+12%)	9mo	$164,900	$125	44
2409 Legends Crk	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,266 (+8%)	6mo	$200,999	$159	42
958 E Humphreys	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,284 (+9%)	9mo	$215,000	$167	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-18,439
• Equity at exit: $24,527

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-9,641
• Equity at exit: $14,223

Cash invested: $46,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1342
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,599 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$863
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,151/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,406

Max offer price $164,500

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,125
• Closing costs: $4,935
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
527 Elley St Seguin, TX	3.0	3.0	1090	$1,325	$1.22	24d	1	0.12mi
1601 Hays St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,275	$1.17	4d	1	0.14mi
526 E Baxter St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,350	$1.08	24d	1	0.32mi
223 W Baxter St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,664	$1.28	2d	1	0.44mi
1701 N Guadalupe St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,464	$1.42	4d	1	0.54mi
607 E Martindale St Unit B Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,500	$1.47	17d	1	0.58mi
726 E Humphreys St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,500	$1.20	24d	1	0.60mi
1102 Renee Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,395	$1.02	12d	1	0.67mi
1107 Renee Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,445	$1.05	20d	1	0.69mi
1107 Renee Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,395	$1.02	3d	1	0.69mi
1112 Renee Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,494	$1.09	12d	1	0.70mi
1114 Renee Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,449	$1.06	44d	1	0.70mi
1119 Burek Cross Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,395	$1.02	4d	1	0.71mi
1116 Renee Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,395	$1.02	4d	1	0.72mi
1128 Stanley Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,600	$1.17	44d	1	0.73mi
508 Pitts St Seguin, TX	3.0	1.0	973	$1,275	$1.31	12d	1	0.74mi
1128 Renee Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,395	$1.02	4d	1	0.75mi
1131 Renee Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,450	$1.06	44d	1	0.76mi
324 Mar Hill St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.5	1236	$1,395	$1.13	16d	1	0.77mi
1143 Stanley Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,450	$1.06	15d	1	0.77mi
1152 Stanley Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.5	1372	$1,395	$1.02	4d	1	0.80mi
1516 Lucille St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.5	1372	$1,445	$1.05	15d	1	0.80mi
1155 Stanley Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,450	$1.06	24d	1	0.80mi
1168 Sycamore St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1017	$1,500	$1.47	2d	1	0.87mi
2551 N Guadalupe St Unit 1308 Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1263	$1,449	$1.15	44d	1	0.92mi
2551 N Guadalupe St Unit 4106 Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1084	$1,300	$1.20	44d	1	0.92mi
2551 N Guadalupe St Unit 3108 Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1263	$1,449	$1.15	24d	1	0.92mi
2551 N Guadalupe St Seguin, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	955	$1,449	$1.52	19d	5	0.92mi
1302 Canary Ln Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,850	$1.42	2d	1	0.93mi
917 8th St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,375	$1.06	4d	1	1.05mi
1339 Mockingbird Ln Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,975	$1.36	44d	1	1.08mi
1331 Hidalgo St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,364	$1.05	22d	1	1.12mi
1400 E Walnut St Seguin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1042	$1,775	$1.70	2d	10	1.31mi
714 S River St Unit B Seguin, TX	3.0	1.0	936	$1,285	$1.37	24d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,500 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,500 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,500 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,500 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,500 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,500 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $164,500 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $164,500 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $164,500 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,500 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,500 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,500 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-01-27
    listed $164,500 New 107-char remark

    Show marketing remark (107 chars)

    This lovely home is a 4 bedroom, and 2 bathrooms with central A/C. Seller is offering Seller Finance terms.

14. 2023-10-23
    historical $1,400
15. 2023-10-23
    historical
16. 2023-10-10
    listed $1,400
17. 2023-09-26
    listed $210,000 New
18. 2022-11-30
    historical
19. 2022-10-19
    listed $170,000 New
20. 2022-08-24
    historical
21. 2022-08-24
    listed $1,300 New
22. 2022-04-01
    soldstatus
23. 2021-08-05
    historical
24. 2021-07-20
    listed $140,000 New
25. 2020-10-22
    historical
26. 2020-10-21
    historical
27. 2020-10-13
    price $112,000
28. 2020-10-13
    price $112,000
29. 2020-10-08
    price $119,999
30. 2020-10-08
    price $119,999
31. 2020-09-24
    price $128,000
32. 2020-09-23
    listed $128,000 New
33. 2020-09-19
    listed $135,000 Active
34. 2018-10-01
    soldstatus
35. 2017-04-01
    historical
36. 2016-12-12
    listed $85,000 New
37. 2016-04-11
    soldstatus
38. 2016-01-04
    soldstatus
39. 2015-12-30
    soldstatus $22,000
40. 2015-07-13
    listed $29,950
41. 1997-04-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,151 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,010 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: +$860/yr (+$72/mo · 40.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,190
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,215
• − Property taxes: −$2,151
• − Insurance: −$822
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,535
• − Management: −$1,535
• − Depreciation: −$4,785
• Taxable loss: −$854
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$205
• After-tax cash flow: $2,040/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seguin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,210
• Composite: 24.17/100
• National rank: #7738
• State rank: #663 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+449.2% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-27 Listed $164,500 LERA
• 2023-10-23 Rental Removed $1,400 SABOR
• 2023-10-23 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2023-10-10 Listed for Rent $1,400 SABOR
• 2023-09-26 Listed $210,000 LERA
• 2022-11-30 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2022-10-19 Listed $170,000 LERA
• 2022-08-24 Listed $1,300 LERA
• 2022-08-24 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2022-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-08-05 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2021-07-20 Listed $140,000 LERA
• 2020-10-22 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2020-10-21 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2020-10-13 Price Changed $112,000 LERA
• 2020-10-13 Price Changed $112,000 CTXMLS
• 2020-10-08 Price Changed $119,999 LERA
• 2020-10-08 Price Changed $119,999 CTXMLS
• 2020-09-24 Price Changed $128,000 CTXMLS
• 2020-09-23 Listed $128,000 LERA
• 2020-09-19 Listed $135,000 CTXMLS
• 2018-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-04-01 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2016-12-12 Listed $85,000 LERA
• 2016-04-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-01-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-12-30 Sold (MLS) $22,000 CTXMLS
• 2015-07-13 Listed $29,950 CTXMLS
• 1997-04-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,151 · -23.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.