2524 E Contention Mine Rd Unit 22N · Phoenix, AZ 85032

$69,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured · 79 Days on market

Built 1987 Good condition $89/sqft · 43% above area Est $49k · 43% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ON LEASED LAND: Dont miss out on this absolutely beautiful remodeled 1987 Fugua. 2 bedroom 1 bath split floorplan. This home has an open front room and kitchen. Kitchen has newer cabinets, stainless appliances and granite countertops. Both bedrooms are spacious. Inside stackable laundry. Enjoy outdoors on your front deck. El Camino MHP is a 55 plus age restricted community. Spa, shuffleboards, putting green.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1987
• Listed 79 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $609 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Campo Bello Elementary School (math 20% / reading 27%, grade F, #669 of 1,109 statewide, top 61%, 619 students, 71% FRL); Vista Verde Middle School (math 13% / reading 26%, grade F, #134 of 218 statewide, top 63%, 544 students, 71% FRL); North Canyon High School (math 13% / reading 23%, grade F, #242 of 381 statewide, top 64%, 1,842 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 29% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 340 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.31%
• DSCR: 2.66
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $49,000
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: 42.65%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2524 E Contention Mine Rd #45	0.04mi	2/1.0	720 (-8%)	17mo	$36,000	$50	71
2523 E Contention Mine Rd #27	0.15mi	2/2.0	840 (+7%)	8mo	$58,000	$69	71
2523 E Contention Mine Rd #34	0.15mi	2/1.5	728 (-7%)	14mo	$50,000	$69	67
18026 N Cave Creek Rd #101	0.42mi	2/1.0	784 (0%)	21mo	$55,000	$70	63
2523 E Contention Mine Rd #29	0.15mi	1/1.0 (-1)	704 (-10%)	18mo	$70,000	$99	56
2120 E Bluefield Ave #141	0.74mi	1/1.0 (-1)	768 (-2%)	13mo	$45,000	$59	46
2502 E Cowan Cir	0.68mi	1/1.0 (-1)	750 (-4%)	14mo	$169,900	$227	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $23,404
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.80×
• Total profit: $54,724
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85032

• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,382 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $609

Break-even live

Break-even rent $611

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $657	-5% $633	+0% $609	+5% $584	+10% $560
Rent	-10% $499	-5% $554	+0% $609	+5% $663	+10% $718
Rate	-1.0pp $644	-0.5pp $626	base $609	+0.5pp $590	+1.0pp $572

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2554 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1118	$2,750	$2.46	26d	1	0.25mi
17602 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	650	$1,625	$2.50	0d	10	0.26mi
18202 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	722	$1,148	$1.59	5d	7	0.37mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$3,000	$3.81	0d	7	0.49mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$3,000	$3.81	5d	9	0.49mi
2077 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	720	$1,295	$1.80	26d	1	0.49mi
2067 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	26d	1	0.52mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Unit 6 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	748	$1,250	$1.67	9d	1	0.56mi
16801 N 26th St Apt 17 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,195	$1.49	26d	1	0.57mi
2311 E Union Hills Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,681	$2.01	1d	11	0.58mi
16627 N 25th St Unit 23 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	765	$1,145	$1.50	26d	1	0.60mi
16621 N 25th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	570	$899	$1.58	9d	1	0.65mi
18660 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	961	$1,572	$1.64	0d	12	0.68mi
16816 N 29th St Apt 202 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	9d	1	0.69mi
16815 N 29th St Apt 146 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$999	$1.18	26d	1	0.72mi
16815 N 29th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,199	$1.41	26d	1	0.75mi
16815 N 29th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.23	18d	3	0.75mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$1,159	$1.66	26d	1	0.79mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	575	$942	$1.64	6d	6	0.79mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$942	$1.35	23d	1	0.79mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Apt 310 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$942	$1.35	26d	1	0.79mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 107 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$829	$1.18	26d	1	0.79mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 112 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$856	$1.56	26d	1	0.79mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 312 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$856	$1.56	23d	1	0.79mi
1814 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,663	$1.68	0d	11	0.92mi
16645 N 31st St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	483	$1,595	$3.30	3d	6	0.94mi
16402 N 31st St #119 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	933	$1,375	$1.47	5d	1	1.00mi
16402 N 31st St #119 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	933	$1,375	$1.47	19d	1	1.00mi
16437 N 31st St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	687	$1,049	$1.53	4d	4	1.00mi
16033 N 25th St Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,350	$1.29	9d	1	1.00mi
2807 E Paradise Ln Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1124	$1,475	$1.31	26d	1	1.02mi
1750 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,349	$1.93	26d	1	1.02mi
2616 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 2624-2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	825	$1,095	$1.33	26d	1	1.03mi
2616 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 2624-4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	825	$999	$1.21	7d	1	1.03mi
2826 E Le Marche Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	725	$1,000	$1.38	7d	1	1.05mi
3027 E Grandview Rd Unit 3027-B Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	912	$1,375	$1.51	9d	1	1.05mi
16225 N 30th St #9 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	968	$1,350	$1.39	26d	1	1.06mi
2802 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	929	$950	$1.02	26d	1	1.07mi
2826 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	929	$1,295	$1.39	18d	1	1.09mi
2826 E Monte Cristo Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	929	$1,295	$1.39	16d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,900 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $69,900 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,900 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-03-31
    listed $69,900 Active 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    ON LEASED LAND: Dont miss out on this absolutely beautiful remodeled 1987 Fugua. 2 bedroom 1 bath split floorplan. This home has an open front room and kitchen. Kitchen has newer cabinets, stainless appliances and granite countertops. Both bedrooms are spacious. Inside stackable laundry. Enjoy outdoors on your front deck. El Camino MHP is a 55 plus age restricted community. Spa, shuffleboards, putting green.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,582
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,327
• − Management: −$1,327
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $6,582
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,580
• After-tax cash flow: $5,723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This remodeled 1987 Fugua mobile home is in good condition with cosmetic updates, making it move-in ready for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet with tile or hardwood — Improves durability and resale value
• Both Install smart home devices — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with tile or hardwood — Improves durability and resale value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 70,839
• Household income: $78,643
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2887.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 17% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 21% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -488.65%
• Current HPI: 339.4181
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.46%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $69,900 ARMLS