1978 Redtail Hawk Dr Unit RV21G · Eagle Crest, OR 97756

$3,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,405 sqft · SingleFamily · 107 Days on market

Built 1991 4,791 sqft lot $2/sqft · 75% below area $399/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover your perfect getaway with this amazing 5-week fractional ownership opportunity at Eagle Crest Resort! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom property offers stunning views overlooking the Deschutes River and canyon. Relax and unwind in your private hot tub on the deck (new deck and hot tub completed in 2025). The property provides comfortable living spaces perfect for family vacations or weekend retreats. Eagle Crest Resort amenities are right at your doorstep, including pickleball courts, sports centers with pools, hiking trails, biking paths, and golf courses. Located near beautiful Riverfront Parks and Trails, you'll have easy access to outdoor adventures and peaceful nature walks. This fractional ownership gives you all the benefits of resort living without the full-time commitment. Whether you're seeking relaxation or recreation, this property delivers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in one of Oregon's most desirable resort destinations.

Key facts

• Pickleball courts
• Golf courses
• Biking paths

Tags

• PRIVATE HOT TUB
• EAGLE CREST RESORT AMENITIES
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• HIKING TRAILS
• BIKING PATHS
• GOLF COURSES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $4k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $4k).
• Recommended offer: $3k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 493.2% vs local median 1.5% in Eagle Crest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#272 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Redmond SD 2J (town): math 24% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #28 of 58 in OR (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 731 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,624 units permitted in Deschutes County in 2024 (391 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $24 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $105 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Deschutes County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $980 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($3k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $3,185 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 66.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 493.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 1739.10%
• DSCR: 78.38
• GRM: 0.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $14,017
• List price: $3,500
• Delta: -75.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1978 Redtail Hawk Dr Unit 21i	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,405 (0%)	3mo	$2,500	$2	98
1836 Redtail Hawk Dr Unit RV57A	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,405 (0%)	12mo	$2,000	$1	86
1844 Redtail Hawk Dr Unit RV55B	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,405 (0%)	16mo	$4,000	$3	83
1982 Redtail Hawk Dr Unit RV19J	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,405 (0%)	20mo	$4,500	$3	83
2280 Snowgoose Dr Unit RV6D	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,405 (0%)	18mo	$9,500	$7	81
1844 Redtail Hawk Dr Unit RV55E	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,405 (0%)	18mo	$4,000	$3	79
1830 Redtail Hawk Dr Unit RV59E	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,323 (-6%)	6mo	$1	—	78
2390 Snowgoose Dr Unit RV 11-C 10 Weeks	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,405 (0%)	22mo	$5,000	$4	74
6960 Robin Ct Unit FV22B	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,405 (0%)	16mo	$26,500	$19	68
6960 Robin Ct Unit FV22E	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,405 (0%)	16mo	$15,000	$11	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 93.95×
• Total profit: $91,090
• Equity at exit: $522

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 205.84×
• Total profit: $200,738
• Equity at exit: $303

Cash invested: $980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97756

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 731
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,333 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$18
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$4 /mo · $52/yr
• Insurance: −$1
• HOA: −$399
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $1,420

Break-even live

Break-even rent $536

Max offer price $3,500

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,423	-5% $1,421	+0% $1,420	+5% $1,419	+10% $1,418
Rent	-10% $1,236	-5% $1,328	+0% $1,420	+5% $1,512	+10% $1,605
Rate	-1.0pp $1,422	-0.5pp $1,421	base $1,420	+0.5pp $1,419	+1.0pp $1,418

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $875
• Closing costs: $105
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $399 · $4,788/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,500 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,500 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,500 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,500 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $3,500 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,500 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $3,500 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $3,500 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $3,500 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $3,500 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $3,500 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $3,500 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $3,500 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $3,500 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-03-03
    listed $3,500 Active 975-char remark

    Show marketing remark (975 chars)

    Discover your perfect getaway with this amazing 5-week fractional ownership opportunity at Eagle Crest Resort! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom property offers stunning views overlooking the Deschutes River and canyon. Relax and unwind in your private hot tub on the deck (new deck and hot tub completed in 2025). The property provides comfortable living spaces perfect for family vacations or weekend retreats. Eagle Crest Resort amenities are right at your doorstep, including pickleball courts, sports centers with pools, hiking trails, biking paths, and golf courses. Located near beautiful Riverfront Parks and Trails, you'll have easy access to outdoor adventures and peaceful nature walks. This fractional ownership gives you all the benefits of resort living without the full-time commitment. Whether you're seeking relaxation or recreation, this property delivers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in one of Oregon's most desirable resort destinations.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$196
• − Property taxes: −$52
• − Insurance: −$18
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,240
• − Management: −$2,240
• − HOA: −$4,788
• − Depreciation: −$102
• Taxable income: $18,366
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,408
• After-tax cash flow: $12,635/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Redmond SD 2J
• NCES district ID: 4110350
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 28.72/100
• National rank: #6682
• State rank: #28 of 58 in OR

Livability — Eagle Crest

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #272
• US rank: #18365

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Eagle Crest, OR
• County: Deschutes County · 197,892 people
• Metro: Bend, OR
• Population (ZIP): 44,914
• Household income: $87,278
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1205.0

Population outlook (Deschutes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 213,908 people
• By 2030: 232,387 · +8.6%
• By 2040: 265,858 · +24.3%
• By 2050: 295,286 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 353,553 · +65.3%
• By 2100: 380,293 · +77.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Deschutes

• 2024 margin: D (+10.1) · D 53.6% · R 43.5% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.4pp toward D · 2008: -0.3pp · 2024: 10.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.1 2020: D+8.2 2016: R+3.8 2012: R+7.3 2008: R+0.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -292.28%
• Current HPI: 385.3027
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.39%
• Metro: Bend, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Listed $3,500 MLSCO