4904 Mesa Ave · Cameron Park, TX 78526

$78,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 957 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1976 0.29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

THIS HOUSE IS VACANT AND EASY TO SHOW

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Built 1976
• Listed 6 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; House
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Lot in Cameron Park subdivision

Interior

• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Tile flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $594 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $78k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,105 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Burns El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 604 students, 92% FRL); Vela Middle (math 19% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,143 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 638 students, 82% FRL); Hanna Early College H S (math 24% / reading 49%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,246 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools at 87% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.61%
• DSCR: 2.45
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $24,844
• Equity at exit: $11,630

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.16×
• Total profit: $69,003
• Equity at exit: $6,744

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78526

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,391 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $763/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $594

Break-even live

Break-even rent $639

Max offer price $78,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $638	-5% $616	+0% $594	+5% $571	+10% $549
Rent	-10% $484	-5% $539	+0% $594	+5% $649	+10% $703
Rate	-1.0pp $633	-0.5pp $613	base $594	+0.5pp $573	+1.0pp $553

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1740 Dennett Rd Brownsville, TX	1.0	1.0	1110	$1,350	$1.22	44d	1	1.11mi
625 Habana St Brownsville, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$900	$1.29	22d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $78,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $78,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $78,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $78,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   remarks 37-char remark
6. 2026-06-10
   listed $78,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $763 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,427 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: +$664/yr (+$55/mo · 87.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,690
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$763
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,335
• − Management: −$1,335
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $6,228
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,495
• After-tax cash flow: $5,628/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $30,490
• Composite: 21.8/100
• National rank: #8249
• State rank: #710 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cameron Park

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1105
• US rank: #19581

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cameron Park, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 60,012
• Household income: $70,565
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1063.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 93% Two or more races 45% White 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 87%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 19% English-only · Spanish 79% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.28%
• Current HPI: 220.5233
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $78,000 RGVMLS
• 2011-04-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $763 · -3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.