812 W Lancaster Rd · Richmond, VA 23222

$325,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,982 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1929 7,000 sqft lot Est $494k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTOR ALERT — Northside Richmond opportunity in the heart of one of the city's most active renovation corridors! This circa-1929 home on a classic tree-lined block of W Lancaster Rd needs a complete gut renovation and is priced accordingly at $325,000. Bring your contractor and your vision: similar homes on this very street have been transformed into stunning showpieces. Renovated comps in the area suggest strong after-repair potential (buyer to perform their own analysis — no representation is made as to future value). The location speaks for itself: minutes from the booming Brookland Park Boulevard corridor with neighborhood favorites like The Smoky Mug, Ruby Scoops ice cre

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1929

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with alley access; On-street parking; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story property; Resale condition; Zoned R-6
• Construction: Block, frame, and stucco construction; Metal roof; Below-grade unfinished area present
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Balcony; Back yard fencing (partial, fenced)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
• Flooring: Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Radiator heating
• Interior features: Wood flooring; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($60/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.3% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#33 in VA, #793 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-.
• Richmond City Public School District (urban): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #123 of 131 in VA (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 179 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,540 units permitted in Richmond city in 2024 (2,077 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,583/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 1325% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richmond County population projected at +40% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $325k implies a 1195% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,323 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $493,518
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2814 Montrose Ave	0.27mi	4/2.5	1,980 (-0%)	0mo	$535,000	$270	85
3012 Edgewood Ave	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,920 (-3%)	2mo	$512,000	$267	71
116 Overbrook Rd	0.37mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,900 (-4%)	0mo	$510,000	$268	68
2910 Griffin Ave	0.42mi	4/1.5	2,088 (+5%)	1mo	$520,000	$249	68
3102 Moss Side Ave	0.57mi	4/2.5	1,892 (-4%)	3mo	$414,000	$219	61
5 W Graham Rd	0.55mi	4/2.5	1,858 (-6%)	3mo	$335,000	$180	59
2903 Hanes Ave	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,824 (-8%)	0mo	$545,000	$299	56
2124 Lamb Ave	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,931 (-3%)	3mo	$500,000	$259	53
2923 Garland Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (-7%)	3mo	$425,000	$231	53
2013 North Ave	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,101 (+6%)	3mo	$425,000	$202	49
2803 Garland Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,792 (-10%)	3mo	$197,000	$110	48
2701 Barton Ave	0.63mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,792 (-10%)	1mo	$320,000	$179	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-40,408
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $18,946
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23222

• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,583 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,352/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,577

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2701 Northumberland Ave Richmond, VA	3.0	3.0	2310	$2,630	$1.14	4d	1	0.25mi
2807 Edgewood Ave Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	1320	$1,750	$1.33	43d	1	0.29mi
3007 Moss Side Ave Richmond, VA	3.0	2.5	1772	$2,495	$1.41	23d	1	0.40mi
2435 Ownby Ln Richmond, VA	3.0	2.5	2516	$3,500	$1.39	43d	1	0.75mi
1500 W Moore St Unit B Richmond, VA	3.0	2.5	2500	$3,700	$1.48	43d	1	0.79mi
3204 North Ave Richmond, VA	3.0	2.5	1626	$2,395	$1.47	4d	1	0.80mi
2402 Ownby Ln Richmond, VA	3.0	2.5	2253	$3,488	$1.55	1d	4	0.80mi
1013 N Lombardy St Unit B Richmond, VA	3.0	2.5	2460	$3,030	$1.23	43d	1	0.86mi
1601 Overbrook Rd Richmond, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	922	$3,172	$3.44	1d	25	0.86mi
207 Welford St Richmond, VA	3.0	1.5	1348	$1,850	$1.37	23d	1	0.88mi
1417 W Leigh St Richmond, VA	4.0	3.0	1512	$2,600	$1.72	43d	1	0.91mi
900 N Allen Ave Richmond, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1286	$3,800	$2.95	1d	30	0.95mi
800 Catherine St Richmond, VA	4.0	2.5	1251	$2,062	$1.65	43d	1	1.04mi
1128 W Marshall St Richmond, VA	4.0	3.0	1658	$3,000	$1.81	23d	1	1.08mi
1128 W Marshall St Unit Na Richmond, VA	4.0	3.0	1658	$3,000	$1.81	43d	1	1.08mi
412 W Marshall St Richmond, VA	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,375	$1.44	14d	1	1.24mi
724 N 1st St Richmond, VA	3.0	2.5	1704	$3,000	$1.76	43d	1	1.24mi
2034 W Grace St Unit A Richmond, VA	4.0	2.0	2450	$2,950	$1.20	43d	1	1.27mi
403 E Ladies Mile Rd Richmond, VA	5.0	2.5	1448	$3,200	$2.21	43d	1	1.28mi
2034 W Grace St Unit B Richmond, VA	4.0	2.0	2500	$3,200	$1.28	43d	1	1.28mi
1103 W Franklin St Unit A Richmond, VA	3.0	1.5	1250	$1,695	$1.36	23d	1	1.31mi
3324 Meadowbridge Rd Richmond, VA	4.0	2.5	1667	$2,175	$1.30	17d	1	1.38mi
3211 Maryland Ave Richmond, VA	4.0	1.5	1344	$1,871	$1.39	43d	1	1.38mi
3501 Meadowbridge Rd Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	1383	$1,495	$1.08	23d	1	1.46mi
3501 Meadowbridge Rd Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	1383	$1,495	$1.08	19d	1	1.46mi
3202 1st Ave Richmond, VA	3.0	2.5	1440	$2,062	$1.43	21d	1	1.48mi
3007 3rd Ave Richmond, VA	3.0	3.0	2036	$2,295	$1.13	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 687-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $325,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,352 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,665 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: +$313/yr (+$26/mo · 13.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,999
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$2,352
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,480
• − Management: −$2,480
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$5,598
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,343
• After-tax cash flow: $1,403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richmond City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103240
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $40,276
• Composite: 33.09/100
• National rank: #5564
• State rank: #123 of 131 in VA

Livability — Richmond

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #793

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime D- Employment C Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Richmond, VA
• County: Richmond City · 178,280 people
• City population: 287,109
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 26,322
• Household income: $61,345
• Rent vs Own: 42.3% rent · 57.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1325.0

Population outlook (Richmond County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,263 people
• By 2030: 284,503 · +8.5%
• By 2040: 327,353 · +24.8%
• By 2050: 367,946 · +40.3%
• By 2075: 449,560 · +71.4%
• By 2100: 500,301 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 70% White 21% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Richmond

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+66.3) · D 82.0% · R 15.8% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: 59.1pp · 2024: 66.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+66.3 2020: D+68.0 2016: D+63.8 2012: D+55.7 2008: D+59.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -288.72%
• Current HPI: 428.4029
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.43%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+523.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $325,000 CVRMLS
• 1997-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $25,100 Public Records
• 1997-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $52,164 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,352 · +28.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.