Ramsey Plan · Needville, TX 77461

$250,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · SingleFamily · 175 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 174 days

🏗️ New construction. The $250,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $273,540.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $251k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-152 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.3% in Needville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#137 in TX, #3,992 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Needville ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #95 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Needville El (math 58% / reading 53%, grade C, #587 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 1,129 students, 49% FRL); Needville Middle (math 56% / reading 56%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 819 students, 45% FRL); Needville H S (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,067 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 516 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,000 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.39%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,540
• List price: $250,990
• Delta: -8.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6814 Papillon Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,749 (+2%)	3mo	$277,590	$159	82
5015 Palamedes Swallowtail Ln	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,656 (-4%)	3mo	$229,990	$139	77
6554 Summer Azure Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (-7%)	2mo	$259,990	$162	76
6511 Silver Emperor Ln	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,900 (+10%)	2mo	$267,340	$141	74
6527 Silver Emperor Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+13%)	3mo	$289,640	$149	66
4907 Wild Bergamot Ct	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,968 (+14%)	2mo	$284,990	$145	64
5003 Wild Bergamot Ct	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-12%)	2mo	$224,290	$147	62
4915 Wild Bergamot Ct	0.23mi	4/2.5	1,968 (+14%)	2mo	$269,990	$137	61
7518 Barcelona Spgs	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-7%)	2mo	$216,990	$136	53
5210 Santa Cruz Bay	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,635 (-5%)	2mo	$283,990	$174	49
7507 Madrid Mnr	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,954 (+14%)	1mo	$241,990	$124	47
4934 Valencia Frst	0.62mi	4/2.5	1,954 (+14%)	2mo	$241,990	$124	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-53,997
• Equity at exit: $40,786

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-59,381
• Equity at exit: $23,651

Cash invested: $76,591 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 68 active · 87 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.8 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $247,490 ($148/sqft)
• Median days on market: 82 d
• This list price: 53% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77461

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Active inventory: 516
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,434
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$342 /mo · $4,103/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,393

Max offer price $251,491

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $37	-5% $-58	+0% $-152	+5% $-247	+10% $-341
Rent	-10% $-326	-5% $-239	+0% $-152	+5% $-65	+10% $21
Rate	-1.0pp $-15	-0.5pp $-83	base $-152	+0.5pp $-223	+1.0pp $-295

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,385
• Closing costs: $8,206
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4707 Pine Meadow Dr Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1594	$2,200	$1.38	98d	1	0.32mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Needville, TX 77461
• Financial info: List price $297,990

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2-car garage (2 garage spaces, 2 total parking)
• Home design: New construction plan (Ramsey)Single-family home
• Construction: Built 2026 (new construction)Plan-built home
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1720 (plan)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (plan: Ramsey)
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (plan)4 bedrooms total

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $250,990 Active 175 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $250,990 Active 174 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $250,990 Active 173 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $250,990 Active 172 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $250,990 Active 171 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $250,990 Active 170 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $250,990 Active 169 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $250,990 Active 168 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $250,990 Active 167 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $250,990 Active 166 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $250,990 Active 165 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $250,990 Active 164 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $250,990 Active 163 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $250,990 Active 162 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $250,990 Active 156 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $250,990 Active 155 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $250,990 Active 153 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $250,990 Active 151 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $250,990 Active 149 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $250,990 Active 148 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $250,990 Active 147 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $250,990 Active 146 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $250,990 Active 145 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $250,990 Active 144 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $250,990 Active 143 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $250,990 Active 142 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $250,990 Active 141 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $250,990 Active 140 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $250,990 Active 139 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $250,990 Active 138 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $250,990 Active 137 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $250,990 Active 136 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $250,990 Active 135 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $250,990 Active 134 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    pricedays on market $250,990 Active 133 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $260,990 Active 132 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $260,990 Active 131 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $260,990 Active 130 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $260,990 Active 129 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    pricedays on market $260,990 Active 128 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $265,990 Active 126 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    price $265,990 Active 125 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $270,990 Active 125 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $270,990 Active 124 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $270,990 Active 123 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $270,990 Active 120 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $270,990 Active 119 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $270,990 Active 118 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $270,990 Active 117 DOM
50. 2026-07-26
    days on market $270,990 Active 115 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,322
• − Property taxes: −$4,103
• − Insurance: −$1,368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$7,958
• Taxable loss: −$6,575
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,578
• After-tax cash flow: $-251/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a modern layout with a spacious kitchen, bedrooms, and bathrooms. The landscaping and curb appeal can be improved to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Needville El C TX #587/4,322 Nat'l #9,513/41,679 Middle Needville J H B- TX #270/1,662 Nat'l #2,699/14,009 High Needville H S C- TX #437/1,632 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Needville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832310
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,900
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #2176
• State rank: #95 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Needville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #3992

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,397
• Household income: $89,360
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

---

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (50%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 18% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% German/W. Germanic 2%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.17%
• Current HPI: 324.3807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Needville, TX 77461
• Financial info: List price $297,990

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2-car garage (2 garage spaces, 2 total parking)
• Home design: New construction plan (Ramsey)Single-family home
• Construction: Built 2026 (new construction)Plan-built home
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1720 (plan)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (plan: Ramsey)
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (plan)4 bedrooms total