7742 Willow Mint Ln · Houston, TX 77086

$169,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,336 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1972 6,825 sqft lot $126/sqft · 21% below area Est $214k · 21% under $31/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom retreat nestled in a well-established neighborhood. Just a short stroll from popular dining and shopping destinations, everyday convenience is right at your doorstep. This charming property is brimming with potential — the perfect canvas for buyers who love putting their personal stamp on a home and building equity along the way. Whether you're envisioning a modern refresh or a thoughtful renovation, the bones are here and the possibilities are endless. A rare opportunity to own in a sought-after location at an accessible price point.

Key facts

• 6,825 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by SBB Management; Annual association fee of $369; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1972; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Concrete road access; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (14 x 12); Bedroom on the first floor (10 x 9); Bedroom on the first floor (10 x 8)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One fireplace; Carpet and laminate flooring; 4 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $106 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Epps Island El (math 28% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,429 of 4,322 statewide, top 57%, 541 students, 85% FRL); Klein Int (math 22% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,222 of 1,662 statewide, top 74%, 1,062 students, 86% FRL); Klein H S (math 58% / reading 67%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,352 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 37% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 79 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.6% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.68%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,597
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -20.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7807 Willow Mint Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,322 (-1%)	8mo	$229,000	$173	83
9710 Wind Flower Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,386 (+4%)	1mo	$225,000	$162	82
7810 Willow Mint Ln	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,209 (-10%)	1mo	$224,000	$185	79
7718 Woodnettle Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (+10%)	2mo	$239,000	$163	74
9627 Crooked Wood Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,308 (-2%)	11mo	$218,900	$167	74
7831 Martin Wood Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,498 (+12%)	0mo	$229,000	$153	67
7810 Bunker Wood Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,310 (-2%)	11mo	$219,500	$168	63
9607 Rumbling Wood Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,177 (-12%)	3mo	$245,000	$208	60
9411 Sutter Park Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,373 (+3%)	8mo	$240,000	$175	51
7646 Winkle Wood Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (+11%)	5mo	$199,900	$134	50
13506 Blue Swallow Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,485 (+11%)	10mo	$255,000	$172	43
7671 Bubbling Spring Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (+11%)	6mo	$212,000	$142	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.6% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $9,509
• Equity at exit: $63,021

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $34,232
• Equity at exit: $88,036

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77086

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,892 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$402 /mo · $4,821/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,759

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $201	-5% $153	+0% $106	+5% $58	+10% $10
Rent	-10% $-44	-5% $31	+0% $106	+5% $180	+10% $255
Rate	-1.0pp $191	-0.5pp $149	base $106	+0.5pp $62	+1.0pp $17

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7750 Water Park Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1209	$1,900	$1.57	45d	1	0.15mi
9526 Golden Wood Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1687	$1,850	$1.10	45d	1	0.26mi
12752 N Houston Rosslyn Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	922	$1,963	$2.13	1d	13	0.84mi
9410 Fairbanks North Houston Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1331	$1,733	$1.30	3d	1	1.16mi
9410 Fairbanks North Houston Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1331	$1,733	$1.30	7d	1	1.16mi
12626 Atwood Grove Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,900	$1.14	45d	1	1.24mi
5113 Caldera Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1847	$1,811	$0.98	1d	1	1.37mi
11430 Hackmatack Way Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1644	$2,200	$1.34	45d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $169,000 Active 598-char remark
2. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,821 · $402/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,821 · $402/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,709
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$4,821
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,817
• − Management: −$1,817
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$1,346
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$323
• After-tax cash flow: $1,590/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,653
• Household income: $58,200
• Rent vs Own: 45.2% rent · 54.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1323.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 26% Black 19% Asian 9% White 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 38% English-only · Spanish 54% Vietnamese 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.60%
• Current HPI: 281.0065
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.19%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $169,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,821 · +16.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.