RC Carlie II Plan · Calera, AL 35040

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · SingleFamily · 220 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new three-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. Two bedrooms boast a private location at the front of the home, near an inviting and flexible open-concept floorplan shared between the kitchen, living and dining areas. A luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner with direct access to a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Single-story living
• Walk-in closet
• Private location

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY LIVING
• PRIVATE LOCATION
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $220,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $245,146.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-298 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#325 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Calera Intermediate School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #311 of 627 statewide, top 50%, 766 students, 68% FRL); Calera Middle (math 9% / reading 45%, grade F, #147 of 257 statewide, top 58%, 755 students, 61% FRL); Calera High (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #169 of 305 statewide, top 59%, 1,066 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 26% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shelby County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 472 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 86d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,695 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.21%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,146
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -10.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
821 Ashford Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,012 (0%)	4mo	$206,500	$204	85
813 Ashford Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,068 (+6%)	5mo	$211,620	$198	75
877 Ashford Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,068 (+6%)	5mo	$209,900	$197	75
817 Ashford Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,143 (+13%)	5mo	$213,620	$187	63
228 Meriweather Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,076 (+6%)	15mo	$177,000	$164	61
628 Klynes Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,068 (+6%)	7mo	$209,938	$197	60
884 Camden Loop	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,143 (+13%)	13mo	$225,000	$197	56
319 Amber Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,143 (+13%)	14mo	$232,900	$204	54
609 Klynes Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,143 (+13%)	5mo	$230,000	$201	52
401 Meriweather Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,159 (+14%)	9mo	$164,000	$142	50
608 Klynes Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,143 (+13%)	5mo	$230,000	$201	49
636 Klynes Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,143 (+13%)	7mo	$225,000	$197	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-57,495
• Equity at exit: $36,552

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-69,430
• Equity at exit: $21,196

Cash invested: $68,641 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 10 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.5 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $224,900 ($197/sqft)
• Median days on market: 35 d
• This list price: 36% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +23.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 35040

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,767 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,286
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,677/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $-298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,144

Max offer price $201,988

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-129	-5% $-214	+0% $-298	+5% $-383	+10% $-468
Rent	-10% $-438	-5% $-368	+0% $-298	+5% $-228	+10% $-159
Rate	-1.0pp $-175	-0.5pp $-236	base $-298	+0.5pp $-362	+1.0pp $-426

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,286
• Closing costs: $7,354
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1114 Emerald Ridge Dr Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1166	$1,476	$1.27	93d	1	0.25mi
884 Camden Loop Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,485	$1.30	7d	1	0.27mi
813 Ashford Dr Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1068	$2,084	$1.95	86d	1	0.27mi
817 Ashford Dr Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,895	$1.66	119d	1	0.27mi
821 Ashford Dr Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,895	$1.87	119d	1	0.27mi
747 17th St Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,300	$1.01	7d	1	0.53mi
1925 2nd Ave Calera, AL	3.0	1.5	1005	$1,618	$1.61	80d	1	0.59mi
127 Renwick Ln Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1395	$1,501	$1.08	119d	1	0.75mi
512 Camden Cove Cir Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	86d	1	1.00mi
512 Camden Cove Cir Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	88d	1	1.00mi
208 Hampton Dr Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,738	$1.34	112d	1	1.01mi
141 Flagstone Ln Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,496	$1.13	6d	1	1.03mi
108 Flagstone Ln Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,385	$1.08	72d	1	1.09mi
500 Margaret Ln Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,653	$1.24	66d	1	1.12mi
134 Mayfair Ln Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,600	$1.39	7d	1	1.12mi
104 Mayfair Ln Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,461	$1.01	4d	1	1.14mi
100 Enclave Ave Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,585	$1.27	115d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $220,000 Active 220 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   pricedays on market $220,000 Active 219 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $219,750 Active 218 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $219,750 Active 217 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $219,750 Active 216 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $219,750 Active 215 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $219,750 Active 214 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $219,750 Active 213 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $219,750 Active 212 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $219,750 Active 211 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $219,750 Active 210 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $219,750 Active 209 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $219,750 Active 208 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $219,750 Active 207 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $219,750 Active 201 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $219,750 Active 200 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $219,750 Active 199 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $219,750 Active 196 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $219,750 Active 195 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    price $219,750 Active 194 DOM
21. 2026-08-29
    days on market $218,500 Active 194 DOM
22. 2026-08-28
    days on market $218,500 Active 193 DOM
23. 2026-08-27
    days on market $218,500 Active 192 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $218,500 Active 190 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $218,500 Active 189 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $218,500 Active 188 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $218,500 Active 187 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $218,500 Active 186 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $218,500 Active 185 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $218,500 Active 184 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $218,500 Active 183 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $218,500 Active 182 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $218,500 Active 181 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $218,500 Active 180 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $218,500 Active 179 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $218,500 Active 178 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $218,500 Active 177 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $218,500 Active 176 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $218,500 Active 175 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $218,500 Active 174 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $218,500 Active 173 DOM
42. 2026-08-07
    days on market $218,500 Active 172 DOM
43. 2026-08-06
    days on market $218,500 Active 171 DOM
44. 2026-08-05
    days on market $218,500 Active 170 DOM
45. 2026-08-04
    days on market $218,500 Active 169 DOM
46. 2026-08-03
    days on market $218,500 Active 168 DOM
47. 2026-07-31
    days on market $218,500 Active 165 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $218,500 Active 164 DOM
49. 2026-07-30
    days on market $218,500 Active 163 DOM
50. 2026-07-28
    days on market $218,500 Active 162 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,203
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,732
• − Property taxes: −$3,677
• − Insurance: −$1,226
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,696
• − Management: −$1,696
• − Depreciation: −$7,132
• Taxable loss: −$7,956
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,909
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,670/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home offers a modern and well-maintained interior with a good curb appeal. Minor updates to the exterior and interior could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes bathrooms and improves aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and improves functionality ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Calera Intermediate School F AL #311/627 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 Middle Calera Middle F AL #147/257 Nat'l #9,793/14,009 High Calera High F AL #169/305 Nat'l #14,491/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 0103030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,672
• Composite: 39.29/100
• National rank: #3995
• State rank: #16 of 129 in AL

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Calera

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #19917

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calera, AL
• County: Shelby County · 237,024 people
• City population: 19,304
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 19,304
• Household income: $84,554
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% Chinese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.58%
• Current HPI: 220.2843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $213,500 Zillow
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $209,000 Zillow
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $206,000 Zillow
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $222,350 Zillow
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $222,100 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $221,100 Zillow