357 Melbourn Dr · Lake Alfred, FL 33844

$157,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · Manufactured public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1989 4,330 sqft lot $387/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2/2 that has never had an animal inside, or any smoking! The Master Bath measures 10x8 and is modified with hand rails. The guest bath is large also. The garage is a whopping 12x25 with the washer and dryer tucked in the back corner. If you wanted to bring the laundry room back into the house, the space is available. The water filtration system stays, along with the furnishings. The golf cart is negotiable. The AC and refrigerator were new in 2010, and the roof was done in 2005. This financially sound, gated golf community has structured itself to enjoy the good life with $2.00 green fees. Fishing, boating, gardening, horse shoes, shuffleboard, Club House, pool, and private pub shows you can be as active (or inactive) as you choose. 1.25 hours to either coast, plus less than 30 minutes to Disney and Legoland. Contact agent for this community's website address and documents, including Rules/Regs, Application, Financial, and Bylaws.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Billiards
• Huge clubhouse

Tags

• GOLF COMMUNITY
• DEEDED LOTS
• HEATED POOL
• FITNESS CENTER
• HUGE CLUBHOUSE
• BILLIARDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Irrigation equipment installed; Pets allowed with restrictions (cats and dogs OK; breed restrictions; number limit; max pet weight 20 lbs)
• Financial info: Total annual fees reported as $4,644; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $387 (includes cable TV, internet, pool, private road, recreational facilities, security, sewer, trash, water and other services); Association approval required; Association name: Erica Mingle; Senior community; Community amenities: Clubhouse, dog park, fitness center, golf, golf carts allowed, pool, tennis courts, wheelchair access, street lights, deed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Detached carport (2 spaces)
• Security: Community security included in association
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; Cable available and connected; Electricity available and connected; Water available and connected; Sewer available and connected; Underground utilities; Sprinkler meter
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; Faces northeast
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Membrane roof; Block foundation; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Screened porch; Sliding doors; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Storage; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Skylight(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• Recommended offer: $153k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,163 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.77%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-20,034
• Equity at exit: $23,543

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-19,060
• Equity at exit: $13,652

Cash invested: $44,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,927 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$828
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,234/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$387
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,751

Max offer price $157,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $228	-5% $184	+0% $139	+5% $94	+10% $50
Rent	-10% $-13	-5% $63	+0% $139	+5% $215	+10% $291
Rate	-1.0pp $218	-0.5pp $179	base $139	+0.5pp $98	+1.0pp $56

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,475
• Closing costs: $4,737
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
161 Greenview Dr #161 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$2,100	$2.21	24d	1	0.76mi
6004 Bimini Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,750	$1.18	24d	1	1.06mi
3000 US Highway 17 92 W Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$1,800	$1.44	4d	1	1.16mi
1901 US Highway 17 92 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,900	$1.74	15d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $387 · $4,644/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolsecurity

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $157,900 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $157,900 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-05-19
   price $157,900
4. 2026-04-22
   listed $159,900 Active
5. 2026-04-20
   historical
6. 2026-04-10
   price $159,999
7. 2026-04-02
   price $164,999
8. 2026-02-22
   price $165,000
9. 2026-01-12
   price $169,999
10. 2025-12-01
    price $174,999
11. 2025-10-27
    price $177,999
12. 2025-08-23
    price $179,999
13. 2025-06-22
    price $184,900
14. 2025-05-10
    listed $189,900 Active
15. 2021-07-12
    soldstatus $115,000
16. 2014-07-22
    soldstatus $63,000 Sold 945-char remark

    Show marketing remark (945 chars)

    2/2 that has never had an animal inside, or any smoking! The Master Bath measures 10x8 and is modified with hand rails. The guest bath is large also. The garage is a whopping 12x25 with the washer and dryer tucked in the back corner. If you wanted to bring the laundry room back into the house, the space is available. The water filtration system stays, along with the furnishings. The golf cart is negotiable. The AC and refrigerator were new in 2010, and the roof was done in 2005. This financially sound, gated golf community has structured itself to enjoy the good life with $2.00 green fees. Fishing, boating, gardening, horse shoes, shuffleboard, Club House, pool, and private pub shows you can be as active (or inactive) as you choose. 1.25 hours to either coast, plus less than 30 minutes to Disney and Legoland. Contact agent for this community's website address and documents, including Rules/Regs, Application, Financial, and Bylaws.

17. 2014-06-14
    status Pending 945-char remark

    Show marketing remark (945 chars)

    2/2 that has never had an animal inside, or any smoking! The Master Bath measures 10x8 and is modified with hand rails. The guest bath is large also. The garage is a whopping 12x25 with the washer and dryer tucked in the back corner. If you wanted to bring the laundry room back into the house, the space is available. The water filtration system stays, along with the furnishings. The golf cart is negotiable. The AC and refrigerator were new in 2010, and the roof was done in 2005. This financially sound, gated golf community has structured itself to enjoy the good life with $2.00 green fees. Fishing, boating, gardening, horse shoes, shuffleboard, Club House, pool, and private pub shows you can be as active (or inactive) as you choose. 1.25 hours to either coast, plus less than 30 minutes to Disney and Legoland. Contact agent for this community's website address and documents, including Rules/Regs, Application, Financial, and Bylaws.

18. 2014-06-10
    historical 945-char remark

    Show marketing remark (945 chars)

    2/2 that has never had an animal inside, or any smoking! The Master Bath measures 10x8 and is modified with hand rails. The guest bath is large also. The garage is a whopping 12x25 with the washer and dryer tucked in the back corner. If you wanted to bring the laundry room back into the house, the space is available. The water filtration system stays, along with the furnishings. The golf cart is negotiable. The AC and refrigerator were new in 2010, and the roof was done in 2005. This financially sound, gated golf community has structured itself to enjoy the good life with $2.00 green fees. Fishing, boating, gardening, horse shoes, shuffleboard, Club House, pool, and private pub shows you can be as active (or inactive) as you choose. 1.25 hours to either coast, plus less than 30 minutes to Disney and Legoland. Contact agent for this community's website address and documents, including Rules/Regs, Application, Financial, and Bylaws.

19. 2014-06-04
    status Pending 945-char remark

    Show marketing remark (945 chars)

    2/2 that has never had an animal inside, or any smoking! The Master Bath measures 10x8 and is modified with hand rails. The guest bath is large also. The garage is a whopping 12x25 with the washer and dryer tucked in the back corner. If you wanted to bring the laundry room back into the house, the space is available. The water filtration system stays, along with the furnishings. The golf cart is negotiable. The AC and refrigerator were new in 2010, and the roof was done in 2005. This financially sound, gated golf community has structured itself to enjoy the good life with $2.00 green fees. Fishing, boating, gardening, horse shoes, shuffleboard, Club House, pool, and private pub shows you can be as active (or inactive) as you choose. 1.25 hours to either coast, plus less than 30 minutes to Disney and Legoland. Contact agent for this community's website address and documents, including Rules/Regs, Application, Financial, and Bylaws.

20. 2014-06-03
    historical Active with Contract 945-char remark

    Show marketing remark (945 chars)

    2/2 that has never had an animal inside, or any smoking! The Master Bath measures 10x8 and is modified with hand rails. The guest bath is large also. The garage is a whopping 12x25 with the washer and dryer tucked in the back corner. If you wanted to bring the laundry room back into the house, the space is available. The water filtration system stays, along with the furnishings. The golf cart is negotiable. The AC and refrigerator were new in 2010, and the roof was done in 2005. This financially sound, gated golf community has structured itself to enjoy the good life with $2.00 green fees. Fishing, boating, gardening, horse shoes, shuffleboard, Club House, pool, and private pub shows you can be as active (or inactive) as you choose. 1.25 hours to either coast, plus less than 30 minutes to Disney and Legoland. Contact agent for this community's website address and documents, including Rules/Regs, Application, Financial, and Bylaws.

21. 2014-05-21
    status Active 945-char remark

    Show marketing remark (945 chars)

    2/2 that has never had an animal inside, or any smoking! The Master Bath measures 10x8 and is modified with hand rails. The guest bath is large also. The garage is a whopping 12x25 with the washer and dryer tucked in the back corner. If you wanted to bring the laundry room back into the house, the space is available. The water filtration system stays, along with the furnishings. The golf cart is negotiable. The AC and refrigerator were new in 2010, and the roof was done in 2005. This financially sound, gated golf community has structured itself to enjoy the good life with $2.00 green fees. Fishing, boating, gardening, horse shoes, shuffleboard, Club House, pool, and private pub shows you can be as active (or inactive) as you choose. 1.25 hours to either coast, plus less than 30 minutes to Disney and Legoland. Contact agent for this community's website address and documents, including Rules/Regs, Application, Financial, and Bylaws.

22. 2014-05-17
    status Pending 945-char remark

    Show marketing remark (945 chars)

    2/2 that has never had an animal inside, or any smoking! The Master Bath measures 10x8 and is modified with hand rails. The guest bath is large also. The garage is a whopping 12x25 with the washer and dryer tucked in the back corner. If you wanted to bring the laundry room back into the house, the space is available. The water filtration system stays, along with the furnishings. The golf cart is negotiable. The AC and refrigerator were new in 2010, and the roof was done in 2005. This financially sound, gated golf community has structured itself to enjoy the good life with $2.00 green fees. Fishing, boating, gardening, horse shoes, shuffleboard, Club House, pool, and private pub shows you can be as active (or inactive) as you choose. 1.25 hours to either coast, plus less than 30 minutes to Disney and Legoland. Contact agent for this community's website address and documents, including Rules/Regs, Application, Financial, and Bylaws.

23. 2014-05-14
    historical Active with Contract 945-char remark

    Show marketing remark (945 chars)

    2/2 that has never had an animal inside, or any smoking! The Master Bath measures 10x8 and is modified with hand rails. The guest bath is large also. The garage is a whopping 12x25 with the washer and dryer tucked in the back corner. If you wanted to bring the laundry room back into the house, the space is available. The water filtration system stays, along with the furnishings. The golf cart is negotiable. The AC and refrigerator were new in 2010, and the roof was done in 2005. This financially sound, gated golf community has structured itself to enjoy the good life with $2.00 green fees. Fishing, boating, gardening, horse shoes, shuffleboard, Club House, pool, and private pub shows you can be as active (or inactive) as you choose. 1.25 hours to either coast, plus less than 30 minutes to Disney and Legoland. Contact agent for this community's website address and documents, including Rules/Regs, Application, Financial, and Bylaws.

24. 2013-05-05
    listed $75,000 Active 945-char remark

    Show marketing remark (945 chars)

    2/2 that has never had an animal inside, or any smoking! The Master Bath measures 10x8 and is modified with hand rails. The guest bath is large also. The garage is a whopping 12x25 with the washer and dryer tucked in the back corner. If you wanted to bring the laundry room back into the house, the space is available. The water filtration system stays, along with the furnishings. The golf cart is negotiable. The AC and refrigerator were new in 2010, and the roof was done in 2005. This financially sound, gated golf community has structured itself to enjoy the good life with $2.00 green fees. Fishing, boating, gardening, horse shoes, shuffleboard, Club House, pool, and private pub shows you can be as active (or inactive) as you choose. 1.25 hours to either coast, plus less than 30 minutes to Disney and Legoland. Contact agent for this community's website address and documents, including Rules/Regs, Application, Financial, and Bylaws.

25. 2006-02-23
    soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,234 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,311 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$77/yr (+$6/mo · 6.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,127
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,845
• − Property taxes: −$1,234
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,850
• − Management: −$1,850
• − HOA: −$4,644
• − Depreciation: −$4,593
• Taxable loss: −$678
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$163
• After-tax cash flow: $1,830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Alfred

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #6406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 9,757
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+85.8% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $157,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $159,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $164,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $169,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $174,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $177,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-23 Price Changed $179,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-22 Price Changed $184,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-10 Listed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2014-07-22 Sold (MLS) $63,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-03 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-21 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-14 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-05 Listed $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,234 · +13.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.