18111 Mellon St · Parrish, FL 34219

$349,298

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,112 sqft · SingleFamily · 59 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $165/sqft · 8% below area Est $378k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step inside this spacious 2,112 square foot home and discover an open-concept first floor that seamlessly connects the kitchen, living and dining areas-perfect for entertaining or relaxing with family. The kitchen is a standout, featuring shaker-style cabinetry with designer hardware, durable quartz countertops, a center island, and a full suite of stainless steel appliances. Ceramic tile flooring, LED recessed lighting and ceiling fan pre-wire add comfort and style throughout. Just off the main living space, an inviting outdoor patio awaits.

Key facts

• Highly rated schools
• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• VERSATILE LOFT
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• HIGHLY RATED SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $349k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $222 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $334k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $334k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.8% in Parrish — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gene Witt Elementary School (math 84% / reading 82%, grade A+, #65 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 689 students, 24% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2703 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $333,606 (4.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.72%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $377,630
• List price: $349,298
• Delta: -7.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17903 Haden Cv	0.21mi	5/2.5	2,112 (0%)	2mo	$335,000	$159	88
3813 Ambersweet Xing	0.22mi	5/2.5	2,112 (0%)	2mo	$345,000	$163	88
17917 Garden Grove Way	0.10mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,032 (-4%)	0mo	$465,000	$229	82
17827 Garden Grove Way	0.17mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,032 (-4%)	2mo	$365,000	$180	77
3313 Night Star Ter	0.21mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,032 (-4%)	0mo	$373,597	$184	76
18115 Mellon St	0.01mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,874 (-11%)	1mo	$325,000	$173	75
3307 Pineberry Xing	0.11mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,244 (+6%)	3mo	$416,597	$186	75
3123 Pineberry Xing	0.23mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,032 (-4%)	3mo	$425,000	$209	74
3620 Ambersweet Xing	0.07mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,874 (-11%)	1mo	$323,000	$172	72
17835 Cane Patch Ct	0.27mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,244 (+6%)	0mo	$416,597	$186	70
3404 Night Star Ter	0.22mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,267 (+7%)	1mo	$416,000	$184	69
17837 Haden Cv	0.23mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,847 (-12%)	3mo	$326,998	$177	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-52,216
• Equity at exit: $52,081

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-64,876
• Equity at exit: $30,201

Cash invested: $97,803 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 34 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.3 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $352,648 ($174/sqft)
• Median days on market: 59 d
• This list price: 38% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2703
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,336 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,832
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$437 /mo · $5,239/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$701
• Net cashflow: $222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,056

Max offer price $349,298

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $463	-5% $342	+0% $222	+5% $101	+10% $-20
Rent	-10% $-42	-5% $90	+0% $222	+5% $353	+10% $485
Rate	-1.0pp $397	-0.5pp $310	base $222	+0.5pp $131	+1.0pp $39

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,324
• Closing costs: $10,479
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16457 Woodside Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2748	$3,800	$1.38	72d	1	1.35mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 18111 Mellon St, Parrish FL 34219List price available

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (Edison plan)Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,112

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Edison plan)

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $349,298 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $349,298 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $349,298 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $349,298 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $349,298 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $349,298 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $349,298 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $349,298 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $349,298 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $349,298 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $349,298 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $349,298 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $349,298 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $349,298 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $349,298 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $349,298 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $349,298 Active 35 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $349,298 Active 33 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $349,298 Active 32 DOM
20. 2026-07-11
    days on market $349,298 Active 31 DOM
21. 2026-07-10
    days on market $349,298 Active 30 DOM
22. 2026-07-09
    days on market $349,298 Active 29 DOM
23. 2026-07-07
    days on market $349,298 Active 27 DOM
24. 2026-07-06
    days on market $349,298 Active 26 DOM
25. 2026-07-05
    days on market $349,298 Active 25 DOM
26. 2026-07-03
    days on market $349,298 Active 23 DOM
27. 2026-07-02
    days on market $349,298 Active 22 DOM
28. 2026-07-01
    days on market $349,298 Active 21 DOM
29. 2026-06-30
    days on market $349,298 Active 20 DOM
30. 2026-06-29
    days on market $349,298 Active 19 DOM
31. 2026-06-28
    days on market $349,298 Active 18 DOM
32. 2026-06-27
    days on market $349,298 Active 17 DOM
33. 2026-06-27
    days on market $349,298 Active 16 DOM
34. 2026-06-25
    days on market $349,298 Active 14 DOM
35. 2026-06-22
    days on market $349,298 Active 12 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $349,298 Active 11 DOM
37. 2026-06-18
    days on market $349,298 Active 8 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    remarks 699-char remark
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $349,298 Active 7 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $349,298 Active 6 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $349,298 Active 5 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $349,298 Active 3 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    remarks 645-char remark
44. 2026-06-13
    listed $349,298 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,033
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,566
• − Property taxes: −$5,239
• − Insurance: −$1,746
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,203
• − Management: −$3,203
• − Depreciation: −$10,161
• Taxable loss: −$3,086
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$741
• After-tax cash flow: $3,399/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,560–$31,680 screening

This spacious 2,112 square foot home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with potential for further improvements to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained garden can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more attractive and convenient for potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve energy efficiency and comfort, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Gene Witt Elementary School A+ FL #65/2,144 Nat'l #766/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Parrish

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 33,296
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 18111 Mellon St, Parrish FL 34219List price available

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (Edison plan)Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,112

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Edison plan)