37174 Pony Rd · Lebanon, OR 97355

$179,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1971 0.32 ac lot $143/sqft · 36% below area Est $280k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3 bed, 2 bath home on a spacious 0.32-acre fully fenced lot just outside of town! Offering 1,248 sqft of comfortable living space, this property features a covered deck perfect for relaxing or entertaining, a single-car garage, and the convenience of a well and septic. Handicap accessible shower, extra-wide doors, and extra-wide hall. Enjoy peaceful surroundings with an easy commute to town and nearby amenities. Plenty of outdoor space for gardening, pets, or play!

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Extra-wide doors
• Extra-wide hall

Tags

• FULLY FENCED LOT
• COVERED DECK
• HANDICAP ACCESSIBLE SHOWER
• EXTRA-WIDE DOORS
• EXTRA-WIDE HALL
• OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (0.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.9% in Lebanon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#126 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities D+.
• Lebanon Community SD 9 (town): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #26 of 58 in OR (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 246 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 311 units permitted in Linn County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Linn County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $179k implies a 795% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $168,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.49%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,387
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: -36.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-6,292
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $31,965
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97355

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,789 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,393

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
701 N 5th St Lebanon, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	685	$1,550	$2.26	44d	1	0.71mi
300 Boulder Falls Dr Lebanon, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	966	$1,850	$1.92	44d	7	0.94mi
556 Harrison St Lebanon, OR	3.0	2.5	1177	$2,100	$1.78	44d	1	1.28mi
90 Hansard Ave Lebanon, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0	825	$1,650	$2.00	44d	3	1.40mi
155 S 8th St #4 Lebanon, OR	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	44d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $179,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $189,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    price $189,000 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Charming 3 bed, 2 bath home on a spacious 0.32-acre fully fenced lot just outside of town! Offering 1,248 sqft of comfortable living space, this property features a covered deck perfect for relaxing or entertaining, a single-car garage, and the convenience of a well and septic. Handicap accessible shower, extra-wide doors, and extra-wide hall. Enjoy peaceful surroundings with an easy commute to town and nearby amenities. Plenty of outdoor space for gardening, pets, or play!

15. 2026-04-03
    listed $199,000 Active 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Charming 3 bed, 2 bath home on a spacious 0.32-acre fully fenced lot just outside of town! Offering 1,248 sqft of comfortable living space, this property features a covered deck perfect for relaxing or entertaining, a single-car garage, and the convenience of a well and septic. Handicap accessible shower, extra-wide doors, and extra-wide hall. Enjoy peaceful surroundings with an easy commute to town and nearby amenities. Plenty of outdoor space for gardening, pets, or play!

16. 1991-10-08
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,048 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,736 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$688/yr (+$57/mo · 65.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,473
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,718
• − Management: −$1,718
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $860
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$206
• After-tax cash flow: $3,550/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lebanon Community SD 9
• NCES district ID: 4107380
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,264
• Composite: 29.83/100
• National rank: #6418
• State rank: #26 of 58 in OR

Livability — Lebanon

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #7209

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Linn County · 70,700 people
• City population: 34,292
• Metro: Albany-Lebanon, OR
• Population (ZIP): 34,292
• Household income: $68,595
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1051.0

Population outlook (Linn County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 127,026 people
• By 2030: 129,540 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 132,780 · +4.5%
• By 2050: 133,614 · +5.2%
• By 2075: 129,061 · +1.6%
• By 2100: 112,224 · -11.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Linn

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.4) · D 36.2% · R 60.6% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.4pp · 2024: -24.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.4 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+17.2 2008: R+11.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -528.42%
• Current HPI: 221.8977
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.55%
• Metro: Albany-Lebanon, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+845.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $189,000 WVMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $199,000 WVMLS
• 1991-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,048 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.