Esparanza Plan · Willis, TX 77378

$311,490

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,117 sqft · SingleFamily · 293 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-story home offers open spaces, smart design, and flexible options to fit your lifestyle. From the welcoming great room to the private owner's suite, the Esperanza makes everyday living feel effortless and inviting.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 292 days

Tags

• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $311,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $336,209.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $311k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-755 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (27.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (36.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (36.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: W Lloyd Meador El (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 617 students, 43% FRL); Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 838 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 293 days — a 12% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,599 (36.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 293 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.62%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $336,209
• List price: $311,490
• Delta: -7.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
725 Ivory Creek Ct	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,356 (+11%)	3mo	$390,000	$166	77
201 Crystal Bay Ln	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,357 (+11%)	2mo	$314,000	$133	71
841 Village Brook Dr	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,318 (+10%)	3mo	$307,990	$133	71
136 Wasatch Peaks Way	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,246 (+6%)	0mo	$324,990	$145	65
257 Hazy Pines Ln	0.16mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,386 (+13%)	2mo	$313,990	$132	65
522 Tawny Rim Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,012 (-5%)	1mo	$329,900	$164	58
526 Cotton Patch Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,198 (+4%)	2mo	$365,000	$166	56
510 Abcot Ranger Ct	0.54mi	4/3.0	1,878 (-11%)	1mo	$399,900	$213	55
251 Mallards Rim Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0	1,878 (-11%)	0mo	$359,900	$192	55
303 Landes Trl	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,040 (-4%)	3mo	$339,990	$167	48
255 Brecon Buff Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,025 (-4%)	2mo	$349,990	$173	48
714 Campbell Crossing Ct	0.61mi	4/3.5	2,392 (+13%)	2mo	$433,900	$181	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-106,464
• Equity at exit: $50,130

10-year hold

• IRR: -63.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.81×
• Total profit: $-170,057
• Equity at exit: $29,069

Cash invested: $94,138 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 90 active · 44 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.7 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $323,990 ($156/sqft)
• Median days on market: 79 d
• This list price: 39% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 838
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,986 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,763
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$420 /mo · $5,043/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-755

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,941

Max offer price $227,027

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-522	-5% $-638	+0% $-755	+5% $-871	+10% $-987
Rent	-10% $-911	-5% $-833	+0% $-755	+5% $-676	+10% $-598
Rate	-1.0pp $-585	-0.5pp $-669	base $-755	+0.5pp $-842	+1.0pp $-930

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,052
• Closing costs: $10,086
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
505 Hines Ave Apt B Willis, TX	3.0	2.5	1665	$1,550	$0.93	3d	1	0.85mi
10723 Sora Dr Willis, TX	4.0	2.5	1780	$1,875	$1.05	2d	1	1.10mi
210 Pine Cavern Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1494	$1,669	$1.12	17d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $311,490 Active 293 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $311,490 Active 291 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $311,490 Active 290 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $311,490 Active 289 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $311,490 Active 288 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $311,490 Active 285 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $311,490 Active 283 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $311,490 Active 282 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $311,490 Active 280 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $311,490 Active 278 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $311,490 Active 277 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $311,490 Active 276 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $311,490 Active 275 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $311,490 Active 274 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $311,490 Active 272 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $311,490 Active 271 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $311,490 Active 270 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $311,490 Active 269 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $311,490 Active 268 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $311,490 Active 267 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $311,490 Active 266 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $311,490 Active 265 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $311,490 Active 264 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $311,490 Active 263 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $311,490 Active 261 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $311,490 Active 260 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $311,490 Active 259 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $311,490 Active 258 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $311,490 Active 257 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $311,490 Active 256 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $311,490 Active 255 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $311,490 Active 254 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $311,490 Active 253 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $311,490 Active 252 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $311,490 Active 251 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $311,490 Active 250 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $311,490 Active 248 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $311,490 Active 246 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $311,490 Active 245 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $311,490 Active 242 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $311,490 Active 241 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $311,490 Active 240 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $311,490 Active 239 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $311,490 Active 237 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $311,490 Active 233 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $311,490 Active 232 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $311,490 Active 231 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $311,490 Active 228 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $311,490 Active 227 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $311,490 Active 226 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,832
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,833
• − Property taxes: −$5,043
• − Insurance: −$1,681
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,907
• − Management: −$1,907
• − Depreciation: −$9,781
• Taxable loss: −$15,319
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,677
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,378/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Esparanza, Willis TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers open spaces and flexible options, making it an attractive investment for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Updating interior spaces can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Adding smart home features can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary W Lloyd Meador El F TX #1,155/4,322 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle Robert P Brabham Middle F TX #756/1,662 Nat'l #6,830/14,009 High Willis H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $310,490 Zillow
• 2026-03-27 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-26 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-18 Listed $309,990 Zillow