549 Wax Myrtle Way · Magnolia, TX 77447

$291,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,665 sqft · SingleFamily · 205 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $175/sqft · 11% below area Est $327k · 11% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to MAPLE WOODS!!! Maple Woods is DR Horton's newest community in the Northwest Houston area. OUTSTANDING NEW D. R. HORTON 1 STORY 4 BEDROOM! Popular Split Plan Design! Open Concept Interior Layout with Breakfast Area Open to Supersized Family Room & Delightful Island Kitchen! The kitchen includes stunning 42” Polar White shaker cabinets, a crisp white subway tile back splash, a spacious island, and a generous pantry. Privately Located Primary Suite Offers Lovely Bath with Huge Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Oversized Utility Room! Smart Home System, Full Sprinklers, Front & Back Sod, Full Front Landscaping, Covered Back Patio, Tankless Water Heater, LED Lighting, PLUS MORE! Estimated Completion - February 2026. Zoned to WISD! DR Horton—America’s #1 Homebuilder! Visit Maple Woods and make this beautiful new home yours today!

Key facts

• Long foyer
• Cozy porch area
• Vinyl flooring

Tags

• COZY PORCH AREA
• LONG FOYER
• SOFT CARPET FLOORING
• BRIGHT WINDOW
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• VINYL FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $292k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1782 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,696 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.22%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,656
• List price: $291,990
• Delta: -9.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
237 Elm Spring Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,539 (-8%)	3mo	$257,990	$168	77
101 Rising Cedar Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,489 (-11%)	2mo	$249,990	$168	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-67,906
• Equity at exit: $43,537

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-102,747
• Equity at exit: $25,246

Cash invested: $81,757 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1782
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,277 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,531
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$365 /mo · $4,380/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $-219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,554

Max offer price $260,290

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,998
• Closing costs: $8,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $291,990 Active 205 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $291,990 Active 203 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $296,000 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $296,000 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $296,000 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $296,000 Active 149 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $296,000 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $296,000 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $296,000 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $296,000 Active 145 DOM
12. 2026-04-22
    price $296,000 893-char remark

    Show marketing remark (893 chars)

    Welcome to MAPLE WOODS!!! Maple Woods is DR Horton's newest community in the Northwest Houston area. OUTSTANDING NEW D. R. HORTON 1 STORY 4 BEDROOM! Popular Split Plan Design! Open Concept Interior Layout with Breakfast Area Open to Supersized Family Room & Delightful Island Kitchen! The kitchen includes stunning 42” Polar White shaker cabinets, a crisp white subway tile back splash, a spacious island, and a generous pantry. Privately Located Primary Suite Offers Lovely Bath with Huge Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Oversized Utility Room! Smart Home System, Full Sprinklers, Front & Back Sod, Full Front Landscaping, Covered Back Patio, Tankless Water Heater, LED Lighting, PLUS MORE! Estimated Completion - February 2026. Zoned to WISD! DR Horton—America’s #1 Homebuilder! Visit Maple Woods and make this beautiful new home yours today!

13. 2026-02-18
    price $291,990 893-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1496 chars)

    Welcome to the Fargo floor plan, located in Maple Woods. This 1,665 square foot home consists of four bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a two-car garage. Before you enter the home, you are greeted by a cozy porch area. Upon entering, you are welcomed by the long foyer. A miniature hallway branches off from the foyer, holding two secondary bedrooms and a secondary bathroom. Each bathroom features soft carpet flooring, a bright window, and a walk-in closet. Across from one of the bedrooms is the secondary bathroom, finished with vinyl flooring, a linen nook, and a tub/shower combo. Moving down the hall, you will find the last secondary bedroom, also complete with carpet flooring, a bright window facing the side of the home, and a walk-in closet. Across from the bedroom is the utility room, which has vinyl flooring and provides space for a washer, dryer, and some storage. Continuing forward from the foyer, you will enter the beautiful family room, dining room, and L-shaped kitchen. This is an open concept living and dining space, making this house perfect for hosting family and friends! The kitchen features stainless-steel appliances, vinyl floors, and a tall pantry. The breakfast area and the family room have vinyl flooring and bright windows, giving the home a beautiful, fresh, and inviting touch of hospitality and care. The spacious primary bedroom, which can be accessed via the family room, is finished with carpet flooring and two windows flooding the space with natural light

14. 2026-02-18
    price $291,990 1496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1496 chars)

    Welcome to the Fargo floor plan, located in Maple Woods. This 1,665 square foot home consists of four bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a two-car garage. Before you enter the home, you are greeted by a cozy porch area. Upon entering, you are welcomed by the long foyer. A miniature hallway branches off from the foyer, holding two secondary bedrooms and a secondary bathroom. Each bathroom features soft carpet flooring, a bright window, and a walk-in closet. Across from one of the bedrooms is the secondary bathroom, finished with vinyl flooring, a linen nook, and a tub/shower combo. Moving down the hall, you will find the last secondary bedroom, also complete with carpet flooring, a bright window facing the side of the home, and a walk-in closet. Across from the bedroom is the utility room, which has vinyl flooring and provides space for a washer, dryer, and some storage. Continuing forward from the foyer, you will enter the beautiful family room, dining room, and L-shaped kitchen. This is an open concept living and dining space, making this house perfect for hosting family and friends! The kitchen features stainless-steel appliances, vinyl floors, and a tall pantry. The breakfast area and the family room have vinyl flooring and bright windows, giving the home a beautiful, fresh, and inviting touch of hospitality and care. The spacious primary bedroom, which can be accessed via the family room, is finished with carpet flooring and two windows flooding the space with natural light

15. 2026-02-08
    price $307,990 893-char remark

    Show marketing remark (893 chars)

    Welcome to MAPLE WOODS!!! Maple Woods is DR Horton's newest community in the Northwest Houston area. OUTSTANDING NEW D. R. HORTON 1 STORY 4 BEDROOM! Popular Split Plan Design! Open Concept Interior Layout with Breakfast Area Open to Supersized Family Room & Delightful Island Kitchen! The kitchen includes stunning 42” Polar White shaker cabinets, a crisp white subway tile back splash, a spacious island, and a generous pantry. Privately Located Primary Suite Offers Lovely Bath with Huge Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Oversized Utility Room! Smart Home System, Full Sprinklers, Front & Back Sod, Full Front Landscaping, Covered Back Patio, Tankless Water Heater, LED Lighting, PLUS MORE! Estimated Completion - February 2026. Zoned to WISD! DR Horton—America’s #1 Homebuilder! Visit Maple Woods and make this beautiful new home yours today!

16. 2026-01-31
    price $307,990 1496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1496 chars)

    Welcome to the Fargo floor plan, located in Maple Woods. This 1,665 square foot home consists of four bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a two-car garage. Before you enter the home, you are greeted by a cozy porch area. Upon entering, you are welcomed by the long foyer. A miniature hallway branches off from the foyer, holding two secondary bedrooms and a secondary bathroom. Each bathroom features soft carpet flooring, a bright window, and a walk-in closet. Across from one of the bedrooms is the secondary bathroom, finished with vinyl flooring, a linen nook, and a tub/shower combo. Moving down the hall, you will find the last secondary bedroom, also complete with carpet flooring, a bright window facing the side of the home, and a walk-in closet. Across from the bedroom is the utility room, which has vinyl flooring and provides space for a washer, dryer, and some storage. Continuing forward from the foyer, you will enter the beautiful family room, dining room, and L-shaped kitchen. This is an open concept living and dining space, making this house perfect for hosting family and friends! The kitchen features stainless-steel appliances, vinyl floors, and a tall pantry. The breakfast area and the family room have vinyl flooring and bright windows, giving the home a beautiful, fresh, and inviting touch of hospitality and care. The spacious primary bedroom, which can be accessed via the family room, is finished with carpet flooring and two windows flooding the space with natural light

17. 2026-01-29
    price $317,990 1496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1496 chars)

    Welcome to the Fargo floor plan, located in Maple Woods. This 1,665 square foot home consists of four bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a two-car garage. Before you enter the home, you are greeted by a cozy porch area. Upon entering, you are welcomed by the long foyer. A miniature hallway branches off from the foyer, holding two secondary bedrooms and a secondary bathroom. Each bathroom features soft carpet flooring, a bright window, and a walk-in closet. Across from one of the bedrooms is the secondary bathroom, finished with vinyl flooring, a linen nook, and a tub/shower combo. Moving down the hall, you will find the last secondary bedroom, also complete with carpet flooring, a bright window facing the side of the home, and a walk-in closet. Across from the bedroom is the utility room, which has vinyl flooring and provides space for a washer, dryer, and some storage. Continuing forward from the foyer, you will enter the beautiful family room, dining room, and L-shaped kitchen. This is an open concept living and dining space, making this house perfect for hosting family and friends! The kitchen features stainless-steel appliances, vinyl floors, and a tall pantry. The breakfast area and the family room have vinyl flooring and bright windows, giving the home a beautiful, fresh, and inviting touch of hospitality and care. The spacious primary bedroom, which can be accessed via the family room, is finished with carpet flooring and two windows flooding the space with natural light

18. 2026-01-06
    listed $308,990 Active 893-char remark

    Show marketing remark (893 chars)

    Welcome to MAPLE WOODS!!! Maple Woods is DR Horton's newest community in the Northwest Houston area. OUTSTANDING NEW D. R. HORTON 1 STORY 4 BEDROOM! Popular Split Plan Design! Open Concept Interior Layout with Breakfast Area Open to Supersized Family Room & Delightful Island Kitchen! The kitchen includes stunning 42” Polar White shaker cabinets, a crisp white subway tile back splash, a spacious island, and a generous pantry. Privately Located Primary Suite Offers Lovely Bath with Huge Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Oversized Utility Room! Smart Home System, Full Sprinklers, Front & Back Sod, Full Front Landscaping, Covered Back Patio, Tankless Water Heater, LED Lighting, PLUS MORE! Estimated Completion - February 2026. Zoned to WISD! DR Horton—America’s #1 Homebuilder! Visit Maple Woods and make this beautiful new home yours today!

19. 2025-11-22
    listed $308,990 Active 1496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1496 chars)

    Welcome to the Fargo floor plan, located in Maple Woods. This 1,665 square foot home consists of four bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a two-car garage. Before you enter the home, you are greeted by a cozy porch area. Upon entering, you are welcomed by the long foyer. A miniature hallway branches off from the foyer, holding two secondary bedrooms and a secondary bathroom. Each bathroom features soft carpet flooring, a bright window, and a walk-in closet. Across from one of the bedrooms is the secondary bathroom, finished with vinyl flooring, a linen nook, and a tub/shower combo. Moving down the hall, you will find the last secondary bedroom, also complete with carpet flooring, a bright window facing the side of the home, and a walk-in closet. Across from the bedroom is the utility room, which has vinyl flooring and provides space for a washer, dryer, and some storage. Continuing forward from the foyer, you will enter the beautiful family room, dining room, and L-shaped kitchen. This is an open concept living and dining space, making this house perfect for hosting family and friends! The kitchen features stainless-steel appliances, vinyl floors, and a tall pantry. The breakfast area and the family room have vinyl flooring and bright windows, giving the home a beautiful, fresh, and inviting touch of hospitality and care. The spacious primary bedroom, which can be accessed via the family room, is finished with carpet flooring and two windows flooding the space with natural light

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,324
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,356
• − Property taxes: −$4,380
• − Insurance: −$1,460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,186
• − Management: −$2,186
• − Depreciation: −$8,494
• Taxable loss: −$7,738
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,857
• After-tax cash flow: $-772/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with recent renovations, featuring new cabinetry, countertops, and flooring. It is move-in ready and ready to be shown to potential buyers or renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Both New flooring in bedrooms — Improves the look and feel of the bedrooms, increasing both resale and rental value.
• Both New lighting fixtures — Modernizes the home and enhances the overall ambiance, increasing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both New flooring in bedrooms — Improves the look and feel of the bedrooms, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Modernizes the home and enhances the overall ambiance, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $296,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $291,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $291,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-08 Price Changed $307,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $307,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $317,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-06 Listed $308,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-22 Listed $308,990 Zillow