6333 Hodgson Rd #266 · Lino Lakes, MN 55014

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured · 337 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a comfortable home that fits your budget? This BRAND-NEW 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom mobile home offers the perfect blend of convenience and value! Home Features: * Bright, open layout * Laundry room * Modern finishes throughout home * Off-street parking Enjoy peaceful living in a friendly community! Located in scenic Lino Lakes, Baldwin Lake Estates provides a peaceful community setting with easy access to both I-35W and I-35E. Community Features: * Clean, quiet, & well-maintained * Friendly onsite management team * Convenient location near shops, dining, and the Rice Creek Chain of Lakes Come see this beautiful mobile home in person - schedule your viewing today before it's gone!

Key facts

• Baldwin lake estates
• Built 2025
• Listed 337 days

Tags

• BALDWIN LAKE ESTATES
• RICE CREEK CHAIN OF LAKES
• ABOVE AVERAGE LOT SIZES
• ONSITE PROPERTY MANAGERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $646 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 3.1% in Lino Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#287 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Centennial Public School District (suburban): math 59% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #26 of 301 in MN (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,083 units permitted in Anoka County in 2024 (134 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anoka County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 337 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 337 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.55%
• DSCR: 2.45
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $27,371
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.23×
• Total profit: $76,879
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55014

• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,561 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $646

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6333 Hodgson Rd Circle Pines, MN	2.0	1.0	784	$1,450	$1.85	1d	1	0.02mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 337 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 336 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 335 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 334 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 332 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 331 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 328 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 327 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 326 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 323 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 322 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 321 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 320 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 319 DOM
15. 2025-07-17
    listed $85,000 Active 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    Looking for a comfortable home that fits your budget? This BRAND-NEW 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom mobile home offers the perfect blend of convenience and value! Home Features: * Bright, open layout * Laundry room * Modern finishes throughout home * Off-street parking Enjoy peaceful living in a friendly community! Located in scenic Lino Lakes, Baldwin Lake Estates provides a peaceful community setting with easy access to both I-35W and I-35E. Community Features: * Clean, quiet, & well-maintained * Friendly onsite management team * Convenient location near shops, dining, and the Rice Creek Chain of Lakes Come see this beautiful mobile home in person - schedule your viewing today before it's gone!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,498
• − Management: −$1,498
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $6,799
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,632
• After-tax cash flow: $6,116/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a good curb appeal. It is move-in ready with minor updates that could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizes and increases value
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizes and increases value ↑
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centennial Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2708100
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $84,468
• Composite: 54.78/100
• National rank: #1316
• State rank: #26 of 301 in MN

Livability — Lino Lakes

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #287
• US rank: #6259

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lino Lakes, MN
• County: Anoka County · 277,116 people
• City population: 28,975
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 29,047
• Household income: $103,658
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 473.0

Population outlook (Anoka County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 375,223 people
• By 2030: 387,850 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 407,239 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 417,541 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 448,447 · +19.5%
• By 2100: 464,954 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 4% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anoka

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: R+9.7 2012: R+2.6 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -206.50%
• Current HPI: 242.8272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-07-17 Listed $85,000 Zillow