1463 Briscoe Rd · Swan Lake, NY 12783

$275,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,061 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Built 1960 0.35 ac lot ↓ 8% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this ranch-style home in Liberty City, located in the Swan Lake Park subdivision within the Liberty School District. This 2,064 sq ft property offers four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and two half bathrooms on a 15,246 sq ft lot. If you’re searching for a home with a finished walk-out basement, first-floor bedroom and full bath, and flexible living space, this layout delivers options for guests, hobbies, or work-from-home needs. Inside, you’ll find hardwood, laminate, and tile flooring, along with a living room fireplace that adds warmth and character. The walk-through kitchen is equipped with a cooktop, gas oven, gas cooktop, dishwasher, refrigerator, and electric w

Key facts

• Covered porch
• First-floor bedroom
• Walk-through kitchen

Tags

• FINISHED WALK-OUT BASEMENT
• FIRST-FLOOR BEDROOM
• LIVING ROOM FIREPLACE
• WALK-THROUGH KITCHEN
• HIGH-SPEED INTERNET
• COVERED PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Frame construction; Full walk-out basement; Attic access via scuttle
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9 (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Heat pump; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Primary bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-158 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Liberty Central School District (town): math 31% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #569 of 590 in NY (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 691 students, 64% FRL); Liberty Middle School (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #664 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 529 students, 68% FRL); Liberty High School (math 92% / reading 70%, grade A, #495 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 596 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 32% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Liberty Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $220,590 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.46%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $892,413
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Cedar Ln	0.46mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,870 (-9%)	9mo	$810,000	$433	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $139,755
• Equity at exit: $247,742

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.45×
• Total profit: $419,525
• Equity at exit: $534,265

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12783

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,206 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,125/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,406

Max offer price $252,166

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $32	-5% $-63	+0% $-158	+5% $-253	+10% $-348
Rent	-10% $-332	-5% $-245	+0% $-158	+5% $-71	+10% $16
Rate	-1.0pp $-19	-0.5pp $-88	base $-158	+0.5pp $-229	+1.0pp $-302

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $275,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $275,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    remarks 687-char remark
17. 2026-05-31
    listed $275,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,471
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,125
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,118
• − Management: −$2,118
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$6,669
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,601
• After-tax cash flow: $-293/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617220
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,542
• Composite: 27.65/100
• National rank: #6920
• State rank: #569 of 590 in NY

Livability — Swan Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Swan Lake, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,357

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 6% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Danish 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Indo-European 9% Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.43%
• Current HPI: 433.2531
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $275,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-20 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $275,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Listed $285,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-01 Listed $299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid