11901 Sierraway Way #9 · Kernville, CA 93238

$89,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1974 $62/sqft · 27% above area Est $71k · 27% over ↓ 10% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a thoughtfully designed split-wing floor plan, offering both comfort & privacy. The entryway leads into a spacious living area with brand new carpet, fresh paint, & durable vinyl plank flooring throughout. On one side of the home, you'll find two generously-sized guest rooms & a full bath, while the primary suite, complete with a private en suite bath, is located on the opposite end. The kitchen has been completely updated with sleek new quartz countertops, a modern sink, & updated fixtures. The primary bathroom features a luxurious custom-tiled walk-in shower, dual vanities, & plenty of storage. Two master cools & pellet stove, just 3 years old, adds a cozy touch. Indoor laundry is just off the kitchen. Step outside to a large covered redwood deck, perfect for entertaining or relaxing, with stunning mountain views & vinyl fencing, misters for added comfort & has a wheelchair ramp leading to the back patio area. The entire property is secured by vinyl fencing, with additional amenities including a covered carport and two storage sheds. This home is equipped with a backup generator . Located in a well-maintained 55 plus park.

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Community pool
• Built 1974

Tags

• SPLIT-WING FLOOR PLAN
• UPDATED QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• CUSTOM-TILED WALK-IN SHOWER
• LARGE COVERED REDWOOD DECK
• STUNNING MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• COVERED CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $521 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 1.9% in Kernville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,366 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kernville Elementary (123 students, 68% FRL); Woodrow Wallace Middle (273 students, 81% FRL); Kern Valley High (reading 75%, 466 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $737 of equity ($622 loan paydown + $115 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,809 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.03%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $71,058
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: 26.52%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11901 Sierraway Way #9	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$89,900	$62	100
11811 Luxton Lane Ln	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	22mo	$185,000	$128	70
11901 Sierra Way Way #35	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+7%)	21mo	$58,900	$38	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $31,148
• Equity at exit: $26,679

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.27×
• Total profit: $82,396
• Equity at exit: $32,531

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93238

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $584/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $521

Break-even live

Break-even rent $790

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $572	-5% $547	+0% $521	+5% $496	+10% $471
Rent	-10% $407	-5% $464	+0% $521	+5% $579	+10% $636
Rate	-1.0pp $567	-0.5pp $544	base $521	+0.5pp $498	+1.0pp $475

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
Burlando Rd Unit A Kernville, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	4d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 1245-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1245 chars)

   This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a thoughtfully designed split-wing floor plan, offering both comfort & privacy. The entryway leads into a spacious living area with brand new carpet, fresh paint, & durable vinyl plank flooring throughout. On one side of the home, you'll find two generously-sized guest rooms & a full bath, while the primary suite, complete with a private en suite bath, is located on the opposite end. The kitchen has been completely updated with sleek new quartz countertops, a modern sink, & updated fixtures. The primary bathroom features a luxurious custom-tiled walk-in shower, dual vanities, & plenty of storage. Two master cools & pellet stove, just 3 years old, adds a cozy touch. Indoor laundry is just off the kitchen. Step outside to a large covered redwood deck, perfect for entertaining or relaxing, with stunning mountain views & vinyl fencing, misters for added comfort & has a wheelchair ramp leading to the back patio area. The entire property is secured by vinyl fencing, with additional amenities including a covered carport and two storage sheds. This home is equipped with a backup generator . Located in a well-maintained 55 plus park.

2. 2026-04-29
   price $89,900 1245-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1245 chars)

   This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a thoughtfully designed split-wing floor plan, offering both comfort & privacy. The entryway leads into a spacious living area with brand new carpet, fresh paint, & durable vinyl plank flooring throughout. On one side of the home, you'll find two generously-sized guest rooms & a full bath, while the primary suite, complete with a private en suite bath, is located on the opposite end. The kitchen has been completely updated with sleek new quartz countertops, a modern sink, & updated fixtures. The primary bathroom features a luxurious custom-tiled walk-in shower, dual vanities, & plenty of storage. Two master cools & pellet stove, just 3 years old, adds a cozy touch. Indoor laundry is just off the kitchen. Step outside to a large covered redwood deck, perfect for entertaining or relaxing, with stunning mountain views & vinyl fencing, misters for added comfort & has a wheelchair ramp leading to the back patio area. The entire property is secured by vinyl fencing, with additional amenities including a covered carport and two storage sheds. This home is equipped with a backup generator . Located in a well-maintained 55 plus park.

3. 2026-02-09
   listed $99,900 Active 1245-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1245 chars)

   This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a thoughtfully designed split-wing floor plan, offering both comfort & privacy. The entryway leads into a spacious living area with brand new carpet, fresh paint, & durable vinyl plank flooring throughout. On one side of the home, you'll find two generously-sized guest rooms & a full bath, while the primary suite, complete with a private en suite bath, is located on the opposite end. The kitchen has been completely updated with sleek new quartz countertops, a modern sink, & updated fixtures. The primary bathroom features a luxurious custom-tiled walk-in shower, dual vanities, & plenty of storage. Two master cools & pellet stove, just 3 years old, adds a cozy touch. Indoor laundry is just off the kitchen. Step outside to a large covered redwood deck, perfect for entertaining or relaxing, with stunning mountain views & vinyl fencing, misters for added comfort & has a wheelchair ramp leading to the back patio area. The entire property is secured by vinyl fencing, with additional amenities including a covered carport and two storage sheds. This home is equipped with a backup generator . Located in a well-maintained 55 plus park.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $584 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $683 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$100/yr (+$8/mo · 17.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$584
• − Insurance: −$1,247
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $5,134
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,232
• After-tax cash flow: $5,026/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kernville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619590
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $29,896
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #12766
• State rank: #1128 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Kernville

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #1366
• US rank: #27076

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment F Housing D- Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kernville, CA
• Population (ZIP): 726

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Pacific Islander 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3% Black 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Italian 7%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.13%
• Current HPI: 212.9272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — SSMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $89,900 SSMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $99,900 SSMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $584 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.