1223 Ohio Ave · San Juan, TX 78589

$129,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,502 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 163 Days on market

Built 1974 4,999 sqft lot $86/sqft · 37% below area Est $205k · 37% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and move-in ready! This delightful 2-bedroom, 1-bath bungalow-style home is nestled in a well-established neighborhood in the heart of San Juan, Texas. Sitting on a spacious 5,000 sq. ft. lot, this 1,502 sq. ft. home boasts freshly painted interiors, offering a clean and inviting atmosphere. The thoughtfully designed layout provides comfort and functionality, making it perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors. Enjoy the tranquility of an established community while still being conveniently located near schools, shopping, dining, and entertainment. Don't miss your chance to own this turn-key gem — schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• 4,999 sq ft lot
• Built 1974
• Listed 163 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.4% in San Juan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#294 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Edith & Ethel Carman El (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 638 students, 85% FRL); Austin Middle (math 14% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,543 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 951 students, 85% FRL); Psja Early College H S (math 33% / reading 65%, grade D, #553 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 2,459 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 72% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $895 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.29%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,548
• List price: $129,500
• Delta: -36.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
314 E 10th St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,424 (-5%)	9mo	$265,000	$186	69
101 W 16th St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+8%)	2mo	$161,000	$99	63
503 Rio Colorado St	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,593 (+6%)	6mo	$195,000	$122	62
1313 Mayfair St	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,472 (-2%)	1mo	$199,000	$135	59
1618 Kiwi Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,433 (-5%)	8mo	$225,000	$157	53
412 Zapata St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,390 (-8%)	1mo	$225,000	$162	53
1304 Garden Ridge Ave	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,581 (+5%)	6mo	$290,000	$183	53
406 Zapata St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-4%)	8mo	$239,000	$165	52
1610 Jonathan St	0.59mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,574 (+5%)	5mo	$185,000	$118	49
410 W Seventh St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,370 (-9%)	8mo	$187,000	$136	41
1000 Via Cantera Dr	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,605 (+7%)	7mo	$235,000	$146	39
408 Noble Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,676 (+12%)	0mo	$290,000	$173	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-12,589
• Equity at exit: $19,309

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $208
• Equity at exit: $11,197

Cash invested: $36,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78589

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,517 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$679
• Tax from tax record: −$336 /mo · $4,030/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,353

Max offer price $129,500

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $203	-5% $166	+0% $130	+5% $93	+10% $56
Rent	-10% $10	-5% $70	+0% $130	+5% $190	+10% $250
Rate	-1.0pp $195	-0.5pp $163	base $130	+0.5pp $96	+1.0pp $62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,375
• Closing costs: $3,885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1400 State Ave San Juan, TX	4.0	3.5	1750	$1,950	$1.11	20d	1	0.24mi
1306 Adela Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,500	$1.17	15d	1	0.41mi
311 W 8th St San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$1,390	$0.76	45d	1	0.54mi
2302 San Pascual St San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,800	$1.40	45d	1	0.94mi
405 Rafael Dr Apt 2 San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	45d	1	1.04mi
1806 Angelina Dr Unit 2 San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1142	$1,250	$1.09	25d	1	1.09mi
221 Rafael Dr Unit 1 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,150	$0.96	45d	1	1.10mi
217 Rafael Dr Unit 4 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,100	$1.02	45d	1	1.12mi
1305 James Cir Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,550	$1.02	25d	1	1.28mi
1606 Kumquat Ave Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,398	$0.95	45d	1	1.30mi
1806 S Linden St Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$995	$0.90	45d	1	1.37mi
1606 S Kumquat St Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,350	$0.91	25d	1	1.38mi
1504 E Quail St Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$995	$0.90	45d	1	1.43mi
204 E Gomez Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	1.5	1464	$1,650	$1.13	15d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $129,500 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,500 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,500 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,500 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,500 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,500 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,500 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,500 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,500 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,500 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,500 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,500 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,500 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,500 Active 143 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,500 Active 142 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,500 Active 141 DOM
17. 2026-02-27
    status Active 659-char remark

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    Charming and move-in ready! This delightful 2-bedroom, 1-bath bungalow-style home is nestled in a well-established neighborhood in the heart of San Juan, Texas. Sitting on a spacious 5,000 sq. ft. lot, this 1,502 sq. ft. home boasts freshly painted interiors, offering a clean and inviting atmosphere. The thoughtfully designed layout provides comfort and functionality, making it perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors. Enjoy the tranquility of an established community while still being conveniently located near schools, shopping, dining, and entertainment. Don't miss your chance to own this turn-key gem — schedule a showing today!

18. 2026-02-23
    historical Option 659-char remark

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    Charming and move-in ready! This delightful 2-bedroom, 1-bath bungalow-style home is nestled in a well-established neighborhood in the heart of San Juan, Texas. Sitting on a spacious 5,000 sq. ft. lot, this 1,502 sq. ft. home boasts freshly painted interiors, offering a clean and inviting atmosphere. The thoughtfully designed layout provides comfort and functionality, making it perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors. Enjoy the tranquility of an established community while still being conveniently located near schools, shopping, dining, and entertainment. Don't miss your chance to own this turn-key gem — schedule a showing today!

19. 2026-01-09
    listed $129,500 Active 659-char remark

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    Charming and move-in ready! This delightful 2-bedroom, 1-bath bungalow-style home is nestled in a well-established neighborhood in the heart of San Juan, Texas. Sitting on a spacious 5,000 sq. ft. lot, this 1,502 sq. ft. home boasts freshly painted interiors, offering a clean and inviting atmosphere. The thoughtfully designed layout provides comfort and functionality, making it perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors. Enjoy the tranquility of an established community while still being conveniently located near schools, shopping, dining, and entertainment. Don't miss your chance to own this turn-key gem — schedule a showing today!

20. 2025-11-14
    price $134,500
21. 2025-06-23
    price $139,500
22. 2025-03-30
    price $144,500
23. 2025-01-07
    listed $149,000 Active
24. 1992-09-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,030 · $336/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,030 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,254
• − Property taxes: −$4,030
• − Insurance: −$648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,457
• − Management: −$1,457
• − Depreciation: −$3,767
• Taxable loss: −$404
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$97
• After-tax cash flow: $1,654/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Juan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #6725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Juan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,958

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 43% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.82%
• Current HPI: 239.3829
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Relisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-02-23 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $129,500 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $134,500 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $139,500 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-03-30 Price Changed $144,500 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-01-07 Listed $149,000 MCALLENMLS
• 1992-09-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,030 · +50.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.