246 Rainbow Dr · Hawthorne, FL 32640

$125,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 186 Days on market

Built 1984

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape the city life and enjoy the trees, nearby ranches, and fresh air at Rainbow Lake Estates! This beautiful property offers over half an acre, all high and dry, with newly installed well and septic- ready for your new home to be moved in or custom built. Easy access to Gainesville, Palatka, and Keystone Heights. Property is partially cleared with sandy topsoil, palms, pine and oak trees. Rainbow Road is hard clay drive into the community.

Key facts

• Built 1984
• Listed 186 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (mobile home); Used for residential purposes
• Exterior features: Other outbuilding or structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Dishwasher

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $126k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $126k).
• Recommended offer: $111k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 3.7% in Hawthorne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#376 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Putnam (town): math 34% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #66 of 73 in FL (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 113 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $870 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Putnam County population projected at -31% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $126k implies a 404% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,792 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.17%
• DSCR: 2.65
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $295,568
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
158 Melrose Landing Blvd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	10mo	$295,000	$203	63
225 Melrose Landing Blvd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,498 (+3%)	5mo	$219,800	$147	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $49,147
• Equity at exit: $18,772

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.75×
• Total profit: $132,337
• Equity at exit: $10,886

Cash invested: $35,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32640

• Home prices YoY: -5.3%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,399 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$660
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,086/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $1,092

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,017

Max offer price $125,900

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,475
• Closing costs: $3,777
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3803 Main St Hawthorne, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,399	$1.41	4d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,900 Active 186 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,900 Active 185 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,900 Active 184 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,900 Active 183 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,900 Active 181 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,900 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,900 Active 176 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,900 Active 175 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $125,900 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,900 Active 171 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,900 Active 170 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,900 Active 169 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,900 Active 168 DOM
14. 2026-04-30
    status Active
15. 2026-04-25
    status Pending
16. 2026-04-06
    price $125,900
17. 2026-02-22
    price $129,900
18. 2026-01-12
    price $139,900
19. 2025-12-08
    listed $149,000 Active
20. 2023-07-24
    soldstatus $25,000 Sold 448-char remark

    Show marketing remark (448 chars)

    Escape the city life and enjoy the trees, nearby ranches, and fresh air at Rainbow Lake Estates! This beautiful property offers over half an acre, all high and dry, with newly installed well and septic- ready for your new home to be moved in or custom built. Easy access to Gainesville, Palatka, and Keystone Heights. Property is partially cleared with sandy topsoil, palms, pine and oak trees. Rainbow Road is hard clay drive into the community.

21. 2023-07-07
    status Pending 448-char remark

    Show marketing remark (448 chars)

    Escape the city life and enjoy the trees, nearby ranches, and fresh air at Rainbow Lake Estates! This beautiful property offers over half an acre, all high and dry, with newly installed well and septic- ready for your new home to be moved in or custom built. Easy access to Gainesville, Palatka, and Keystone Heights. Property is partially cleared with sandy topsoil, palms, pine and oak trees. Rainbow Road is hard clay drive into the community.

22. 2023-06-18
    historical Active - Contingent 448-char remark

    Show marketing remark (448 chars)

    Escape the city life and enjoy the trees, nearby ranches, and fresh air at Rainbow Lake Estates! This beautiful property offers over half an acre, all high and dry, with newly installed well and septic- ready for your new home to be moved in or custom built. Easy access to Gainesville, Palatka, and Keystone Heights. Property is partially cleared with sandy topsoil, palms, pine and oak trees. Rainbow Road is hard clay drive into the community.

23. 2023-02-01
    listed $25,000 Active 448-char remark

    Show marketing remark (448 chars)

    Escape the city life and enjoy the trees, nearby ranches, and fresh air at Rainbow Lake Estates! This beautiful property offers over half an acre, all high and dry, with newly installed well and septic- ready for your new home to be moved in or custom built. Easy access to Gainesville, Palatka, and Keystone Heights. Property is partially cleared with sandy topsoil, palms, pine and oak trees. Rainbow Road is hard clay drive into the community.

24. 2021-02-04
    soldstatus $11,500
25. 2021-01-29
    soldstatus $11,500 Closed 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    Quiet, secluded property in Paradise View Estates. These 22 rural lots are part of a 180 acre tract located between Interlachen and Hawthorne. Dimensions are not standard and vary, from 40' x 110' to 40' x 125'. These lots face hard clay Rainbow Drive and Tyler Trail, Missouri Ave & Jefferson Dr. The topography is generally rolling hills, the lowest elevation being approximately 75 feet above sea level and the highest being 150 feet above sea level.

26. 2021-01-23
    status Pending 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    Quiet, secluded property in Paradise View Estates. These 22 rural lots are part of a 180 acre tract located between Interlachen and Hawthorne. Dimensions are not standard and vary, from 40' x 110' to 40' x 125'. These lots face hard clay Rainbow Drive and Tyler Trail, Missouri Ave & Jefferson Dr. The topography is generally rolling hills, the lowest elevation being approximately 75 feet above sea level and the highest being 150 feet above sea level.

27. 2021-01-06
    historical Contingent 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    Quiet, secluded property in Paradise View Estates. These 22 rural lots are part of a 180 acre tract located between Interlachen and Hawthorne. Dimensions are not standard and vary, from 40' x 110' to 40' x 125'. These lots face hard clay Rainbow Drive and Tyler Trail, Missouri Ave & Jefferson Dr. The topography is generally rolling hills, the lowest elevation being approximately 75 feet above sea level and the highest being 150 feet above sea level.

28. 2020-09-17
    listed $11,500 Active 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    Quiet, secluded property in Paradise View Estates. These 22 rural lots are part of a 180 acre tract located between Interlachen and Hawthorne. Dimensions are not standard and vary, from 40' x 110' to 40' x 125'. These lots face hard clay Rainbow Drive and Tyler Trail, Missouri Ave & Jefferson Dr. The topography is generally rolling hills, the lowest elevation being approximately 75 feet above sea level and the highest being 150 feet above sea level.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,086 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,086 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,052
• − Property taxes: −$1,086
• − Insurance: −$630
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,303
• − Management: −$2,303
• − Depreciation: −$3,663
• Taxable income: $11,752
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,820
• After-tax cash flow: $10,284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Putnam
• NCES district ID: 1201620
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,350
• Composite: 29.99/100
• National rank: #6361
• State rank: #66 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hawthorne

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #376
• US rank: #6630

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,780

Population outlook (Putnam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,299 people
• By 2030: 61,255 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 52,930 · -18.9%
• By 2050: 45,051 · -31.0%
• By 2075: 28,720 · -56.0%
• By 2100: 15,852 · -75.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 24% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Putnam

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.8% · R 73.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+41.2 2016: R+36.6 2012: R+24.5 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.68%
• Current HPI: 278.0079
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+994.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-04-25 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $125,900 realMLS
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $129,900 realMLS
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $139,900 realMLS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $149,000 realMLS
• 2023-07-24 Sold (MLS) $25,000 realMLS
• 2023-07-07 Pending — realMLS
• 2023-06-18 Contingent — realMLS
• 2023-02-01 Listed $25,000 realMLS
• 2021-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $11,500 Public Records
• 2021-01-29 Sold (MLS) $11,500 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2021-01-23 Pending — St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2021-01-06 Contingent — St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2020-09-17 Listed $11,500 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®

Property tax history

+44.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,086 · -5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.