3881 Baxley Villas Ct · Asbury Lake, FL 32068

$272,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,604 sqft · Land · 143 Days on market

Built 2025 2,178 sqft lot $111/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 BR/2.5 BA New Paired Villa in Middleburg, FL. Discover the Maple floor plan by Drees Homes, a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that blends comfort and style. The main level features an open-concept kitchen, dining area and spacious family room, perfect for entertaining or relaxing with loved ones. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a generous retreat, complemented by two additional bedrooms and a convenient laundry space. A convenient outdoor living space adds flexibility and charm to suit your lifestyle. Ideal for any resident seeking modern living with personalized touches, the Maple plan delivers both functionality and elegance. Virtual tours are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Open concept kitchen
• Wrap around kitchen

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• UNDER CABINET LIGHTING
• WRAP AROUND KITCHEN
• SPA INSPIRED BATHROOM
• TILE SURROUND SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Annual tax amount listed (2025)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $111; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (1 space)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Two levels; Attached property; Residential use
• Exterior features: No private pool; Lot approximately 0.05 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (one located on the upper level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 1 total room; Property is unfurnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $273k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-391 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (20.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#776 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Coppergate Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 609 students, 100% FRL); Lake Asbury Junior High School (math 65% / reading 58%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 1,037 students, 41% FRL); Middleburg High School (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #216 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 1,852 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 35% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $203,317 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.14%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-68,345
• Equity at exit: $40,704

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-88,240
• Equity at exit: $23,603

Cash invested: $76,437 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,033 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,432
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$341 /mo · $4,095/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$111
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,529

Max offer price $216,358

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-203	-5% $-297	+0% $-391	+5% $-486	+10% $-580
Rent	-10% $-552	-5% $-472	+0% $-391	+5% $-311	+10% $-231
Rate	-1.0pp $-254	-0.5pp $-322	base $-391	+0.5pp $-462	+1.0pp $-534

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,248
• Closing costs: $8,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3861 Baxley Villas Ct Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1604	$2,000	$1.25	16d	1	0.02mi
1854 Alberta Ct N Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,775	$1.49	25d	1	0.21mi
1871 Alberta Ct S Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1524	$1,720	$1.13	25d	1	0.27mi
1809 Penzance Pkwy Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1708	$2,100	$1.23	6d	1	0.50mi
1976 Hunters Trace Cir Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,880	$1.19	3d	1	0.86mi
1469 Jeremiah St Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1468	$2,000	$1.36	25d	1	1.03mi
1685 Bridger Trce Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1210	$1,900	$1.57	25d	1	1.09mi
3424 Steelgate Ct Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	2128	$2,150	$1.01	5d	1	1.09mi
1633 Bridger Trce Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1502	$1,900	$1.26	25d	1	1.13mi
3481 Alec Dr Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.5	2250	$2,095	$0.93	25d	1	1.15mi
3640 Alec Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1178	$1,710	$1.45	3d	1	1.16mi
3413 Alec Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,711	$1.30	22d	1	1.23mi
1268 Winding Brook Ct Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1921	$1,901	$0.99	25d	1	1.24mi
3533 Talisman Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1893	$1,899	$1.00	9d	1	1.26mi
3437 Talisman Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,779	$1.37	12d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $111 · $1,332/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $272,990 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $272,990 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $272,990 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $272,990 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $272,990 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $272,990 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $272,990 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $272,990 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $272,990 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $272,990 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $272,990 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $272,990 Active 124 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $272,990 Active 123 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $272,990 Active 122 DOM
15. 2026-01-29
    price $272,990
16. 2026-01-29
    listed $269,990 Active
17. 2026-01-18
    price $272,990 697-char remark

    Show marketing remark (697 chars)

    3 BR/2.5 BA New Paired Villa in Middleburg, FL. Discover the Maple floor plan by Drees Homes, a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that blends comfort and style. The main level features an open-concept kitchen, dining area and spacious family room, perfect for entertaining or relaxing with loved ones. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a generous retreat, complemented by two additional bedrooms and a convenient laundry space. A convenient outdoor living space adds flexibility and charm to suit your lifestyle. Ideal for any resident seeking modern living with personalized touches, the Maple plan delivers both functionality and elegance. Virtual tours are for illustrative purposes only.

18. 2025-11-26
    price $283,990 697-char remark

    Show marketing remark (697 chars)

    3 BR/2.5 BA New Paired Villa in Middleburg, FL. Discover the Maple floor plan by Drees Homes, a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that blends comfort and style. The main level features an open-concept kitchen, dining area and spacious family room, perfect for entertaining or relaxing with loved ones. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a generous retreat, complemented by two additional bedrooms and a convenient laundry space. A convenient outdoor living space adds flexibility and charm to suit your lifestyle. Ideal for any resident seeking modern living with personalized touches, the Maple plan delivers both functionality and elegance. Virtual tours are for illustrative purposes only.

19. 2025-09-24
    listed $273,990 Active 697-char remark

    Show marketing remark (697 chars)

    3 BR/2.5 BA New Paired Villa in Middleburg, FL. Discover the Maple floor plan by Drees Homes, a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that blends comfort and style. The main level features an open-concept kitchen, dining area and spacious family room, perfect for entertaining or relaxing with loved ones. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a generous retreat, complemented by two additional bedrooms and a convenient laundry space. A convenient outdoor living space adds flexibility and charm to suit your lifestyle. Ideal for any resident seeking modern living with personalized touches, the Maple plan delivers both functionality and elegance. Virtual tours are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,398
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,292
• − Property taxes: −$4,095
• − Insurance: −$1,365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,952
• − Management: −$1,952
• − HOA: −$1,332
• − Depreciation: −$7,942
• Taxable loss: −$9,531
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,287
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,409/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Asbury Lake

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #776
• US rank: #17575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-0.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $272,990 realMLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $269,990 realMLS
• 2026-01-18 Price Changed $272,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $283,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-24 Listed $273,990 Zillow